摘要：经过改革开放后40多年的持续快速发展，中国经济需求结构和劳动力结构已发生重大变化，加上资源生态环境等外部约束，迫切要求加快推动产业结构转型升级。近年来，无论是传统制造业，还是各类基于数字经济新模式、新业态的新兴服务业，都在加速推动机器人替代与数字化转型。机器人及其他数字技术的渗透应用为企业带来效率提升、品质提高和成本节约等有利影响的同时，也会对经济社会协调发展产生潜在的负面冲击。尽管学术界和业界都对数字化转型及机器替代给予了高度关注，但总体来说仍缺乏系统性的机制研究和扎实的数据支撑，特别是缺乏对中国现阶段国情特征的提炼。

在经济高质量增长和产业结构调整升级的背景下，中国机器人替代进程基本上是与企业数字化转型同步的过程，因此本课题在进行调研时，并未孤立地看待机器人替代现象，而是立足于制造业数字化转型的宏观背景，将机器人替代定位为实施数字化转型的重要手段和形式，对中国制造业数字化转型和机器人替代战略的实施状况开展系统性的调研和分析。在对机器人的定义和分类、机器人及其他数字技术发展现状和趋势做出明确界定和梳理后，通过田野调查、企业访谈、问卷发放等方式开展企业数字化转型与机器人替代状况调研，总结梳理了不同类型制造业企业数字化转型与机器人替代特征，分析了企业数字化转型和机器人替代的实施动机、成效等问题，并进一步探讨了推动机器人替代面临的障碍及存在的问题。基于案例分析和问卷调查结果，就中国制造业企业数字化转型与机器人替代的趋势、动力、效果以及面临的问题和制约，有以下主要判断。

（1）中国企业数字化转型和机器替代整体上还处于较低水平，代表工业4.0水平的标杆性“灯塔工厂”与工业1.0、工业2.0并存。（2）制造业数字化转型和机器人替代是一个循序渐进的推进过程，这是由数字化建设成本、制造业技术工艺复杂度等因素共同决定的；（3）制造业不同领域的行业技术工艺特征及区域产业生态存在很大差异，数字化转型和机器人替代进程也由此形成鲜明的行业区域特点；（4）企业数字化转型意识增强，产业配套日益完善，为转型提供了基础性便利，数字化推进速度正在加快；（5）企业实施机器人替代，既有提高产品质量和竞争力的主动作为，也有“招工难”倒逼的被动应对；（6）数字化转型和机器人替代能够显著地“降本”“增效”，且能通过提高产品服务质量来提升企业竞争力；（7）由于配套岗位增加、生产规模扩大等原因，“机器人替代”并未带来生产类岗位的显著减少，生产类岗位整体工资水平还有所提升；（8）此外，2020年在新冠疫情冲击下，数字化程度较高的企业表现出更高的营收预期，而且疫情也提高了企业推进数字化转型和机器人替代的意愿。

尽管各地区、各领域不乏推动数字化转型和机器替代、实现提质增效的典型案例，但广大制造业企业特别是中小企业，在推动数字化转型过程中依然面临资金不足、人才短缺、技术制约等诸多挑战，即便是标杆性企业也依然面临技术和人才支撑不足、投入难以获得快速回报、产业生态制约数字化转型纵深推进等难题。宏观层面，中长期内依然存在出现“技术性失业群体”的风险。

上述发展态势表明，随着数字技术对传统制造业的快速渗透融合，机器人替代规模的扩大已经是必然趋势，未来须顺应趋势积极应对，防范大规模技术性失业带来的风险。一是要立足制造业企业数字化水平跨度巨大的现实国情，从完善公共服务、基础设施等外部环境入手，循序渐进推动企业数字化改造。二是加强数字人才培养和人力资本积累，为制造业高质量发展提供持久内在动力。三是加强对“技术性失业”高风险群体的社会保障，确保中低技能劳动力的平稳过度。

关键词：机器人替代；数字化转型；替代动机；技术性失业

Abstract:After more than 40 years of sustained and rapid development after reform and opening-up,China's economic demand structure and labor force structure have changed significantly,plus the external constraints such as resource and ecological environment,accelerating the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure seems to be an urgent choice.In recent years,both traditional manufacturing industry and various emerging services based on new models and new forms of digital economy are accelerating robot application and digital transformation in general.The penetration and application of robots and other digital technologies can bring about beneficial effects such as efficiency improvement,quality improvement and cost saving for enterprises,but also have potential negative impacts on the coordinated development of economy and society.Although both academia and industry have paid great attention to the digital transformation and robot application as well as related labor replacement,there is still need for a systematic study on its influencing mechanism,solid empirical support and especially identifying & analyzing the characteristics of China's current national conditions.

In the context of high-quality economic growth and industrial structure adjustment and upgrading,the process of robot application and labor displacement usually converges with enterprises' digital transformation process,so our study does not isolate robot application,but regard it as an important implementing method & tool against the macroscopic background of manufacturing digital transformation,and conducts systematic research and analysis on the digital transformation and robot application of China's manufacturing industry.Our study begins from the definition and classification of robots,and the status quo&development trend of robot as well as other digital technologies.Field investigations,interviews and questionnairesurveys are carried out to investigatethe situation of enterprises' practices,summarize models of digital transformation and features of robot application for different types of manufacturing enterprises,analyze the motivation and effectiveness and further discuss the obstacles and problems in digital transformation and robot application.Based on the results from case studies and questionnaire surveys,the following conclusions are made on the trend,motivation,impact,problems and constraints of digital transformation and robot application facing China's manufacturing enterprises：

（1）The overall digital transformation and robot application of Chinese enterprises are still at a low level,and the benchmarking“lighthouse factory”,which represents the level of industry 4.0,coexists with industry 1.0 and industry 2.0.（2）The digital transformation and robot application of manufacturing industry is a progressive process,which is jointly determined by the cost of digital construction,the complexity of manufacturing technology and other factors.（3）There are great differences in the technological processes of various manufacturing sectors and industrial ecologies of various regions,so the processes of digital transformation and robot replacement also form distinct sectoral and regional features accordingly.（4）Enterprises' awareness of digital transformation is enhanced and the industrial supporting facilities are improved,which provide better fundamentals for digital transformation,and the speed of digitalization is accelerating.（5）When enterprises implement robot application strategies,they not only take the initiative to improve product quality and competitiveness,but also act passively in response to“recruitment difficulties”.（6）Digital transformation and robot application can significantly“reduce cost”and“increase efficiency”,and improve the competitiveness of enterprises by improving the quality of products and services.（7）Due to the increase of supporting positions and the expansion of production scale,“labor displacement caused by robot application”has not brought about a significant reduction of production positions,and the overall wage level of production positions has been improved.（8）In addition,under the impact of COVID-19 in 2020,enterprises with higher degree of digitalization showed higher revenue expectations,and the pandemic also increased the willingness of enterprises to promote digital transformation and robot replacement.

Although there are many successful cases of digital transformation and robot application in various regions and sectors that have achieved quality and efficiency improvement,the majority of manufacturing enterprises,especially small and medium-sized ones,still face great challenges in the process of promoting digital transformation,such as insufficient capital,talent shortage and technological constraints.Even benchmarking enterprises struggle to resolve difficulties such as insufficient technology and talent support,difficulty in obtaining rapid returns on investment,and industrial ecology restricting the deepening of digital transformation.On the macro level,there is still a risk of“technological unemployment”in the medium and long term.

The above development trend shows that with the rapid penetration and integration of digital technology into tradi tional manufacturing industry,an expanding scale of robot application has become an inevitable trend.In the future,it is necessary to adapt to the trend and actively cope with the risks brought by large-scale technological unemployment.First,based on the reality that the digital level of manufacturing enterprises covers a large span,promote the digital transformation of enterprises in a progressive manner,starting from improving public services,infrastructure as well as other external constraints.Second,strengthen the training of digital talents and the accumulation of human capital to provide lasting internal impetus for the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.Third,strengthen the social security for high-risk groups of“technological unemployment”to ensure a smooth transition for the low and medium-skilled labor force.

Key words:Labor Displacement by Robot,Digital Transformation,Motivation of Robot Application,Technological Unemployment