摘要：促进经济社会发展全面绿色转型，是上海加快建设具有世界影响力的社会主义现代化国际大都市的一项重要任务。在上海2025年全市碳排放总量及人均碳排放量提前达到峰值的目标背景下，本报告评估了上海绿色低碳发展现状，研究了能源结构调整、技术创新等核心因素对绿色低碳发展的影响，分析了工业、交通、建筑等重点领域碳减排潜力和路径。研究发现：第一，上海碳排放总量呈现稳中有降态势，排放强度低于全国水平，但与国际先进大城市相比还有一定差距，在“双碳”目标下推动绿色低碳发展需要系统谋划、扎实推进。第二，能源系统绿色低碳转型是上海实现“双碳”目标的关键，要在保证能源供应安全的基础上，以加强外来清洁电力输入、提高电气化比重、控制煤炭消费、实施清洁能源替代、构建新型能源系统和加快重大能源设施布局为主要方向，进一步优化能源结构。第三，以低成本、规模化、规范化作为低碳技术发展的指导，探索各项前沿能源系统技术应用模式的有效性，实现上海低碳技术的突破与推广应用。第四，上海要遵循工业化发展规律对工业结构进行调整，在钢铁、化工、汽车制造业等具有技术和产业链集成配套优势的产业上持续保持优势，不断推进产业绿色低碳转型，向创新密集型转变，分类有序实现碳减排目标。第五，持续优化城市交通出行结构、能源结构，加强绿色交通治理能力，倡导居民绿色低碳出行，提高城市交通智能化水平是上海市交通部门绿色低碳发展的重要实现路径。第六，上海建筑部门具备2025年前后实现碳达峰目标的条件，但需要在建立健全政策体系、编制科学规划、推动技术发展等方面持续发力。本报告紧扣生产生活电气化、能源结构清洁化两条主线，以能源、工业、交通、建筑四个领域为着力点，提出了促进“双碳”目标下上海绿色低碳发展的政策体系。

关键词：“双碳”目标；上海；绿色低碳发展；政策体系

Abstract: Promoting the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development is an important task for Shanghai to accelerate the construction of a socialist modern international metropolis with world influence.In the context of the goal that Shanghai's total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions will reach the peak in 2025,we evaluate the current situation of Shanghai's green and lowcarbon development,study the impact of core factors such as energy structure adjustment and technological innovation on green and low-carbon development,and analyze the potential and path of carbon emission reduction in key fields such as industry,transportation and construction.We have following findings:First,Shanghai's total carbon emissions have shown a steady trend of decreasing,and the emission intensity is lower than the national level,but there is still a certain gap compared with the comparable cities of advanced countries.Promoting green and low-carbon development under the“double carbon”goal requires systematic planning and solid promotion.Second,the green and low-carbon transformation of the energy system is the key to Shanghai's realization of the“double carbon”goal.On the basis of ensuring the security of energy supply,it is necessary to further optimize the energy structure with the main direction of strengthening external clean power input,increasing the proportion of electrification,controlling coal consumption,implementing clean energy substitution,building a new energy system and accelerating the layout of major energy facilities.Third,take low-cost,large-scale and standardization as the guidance for the development of low-carbon technology,explore the effectiveness of various application modes of cutting-edge energy system technology,and realize the breakthrough and promotion of low-carbon technology in Shanghai.Fourth,Shanghai should follow the law of industrial development to adjust its industrial structure,maintain its advantages in in dustries with advantages in technology and industrial chain integration,such as steel,chemical industry and automobile manufacturing,constantly promote the green and low-carbon transformation of industries,transform to innovation intensive industries,and achieve carbon emission reduction targets in an orderly manner.Fifth,to continuously optimize the urban traffic structure and energy structure,strengthen the green traffic governance capacity,advocate green low-carbon travel of residents,and improve the level of urban traffic intelligence are important paths for the green and low-carbon development of Shanghai's transportation sector.Sixth,Shanghai's construction sector has the conditions to achieve the carbon peak goal around 2025,but it needs to make continuous efforts in establishing and improving the policy system,formulating scientific plans,and promoting technological development.Focusing on the two main lines of production and living electrification and energy structure cleaning,we propose a policy system for promoting green and low-carbon development of Shanghai under the“double carbon”goal,focusing on the four fields of energy,industry,transportation and construction.

Key Words:“double carbon”goal; Shanghai; green and lowcarbon development;policy system