作为拥有超过13亿人口的最大发展中国家，居民部门的能源消费和碳排放正在成为中国能源需求和排放新的增长点。但长期以来，能源需求的研究重点主要集中在工业和交通运输业等领域，居民部门的生活能源消费研究却一直被忽视。由于中国社会城乡二元结构的存在，城乡居民在能源需求的结构和用途上有着显著的差异，这催生了中国能源消费的城乡二元分化。随着农村社会经济的发展和农民生活水平的提高，农村生活用能的大幅增长给能源管理工作带来了较大压力；同时由于中国农村居民整体受教育程度和环境保护意识还较为落后，家庭能源使用和管理上的不平衡给农村能源消费的可持续发展带来了巨大挑战。因此，对中国农村家庭的能源消费转型问题进行基础性和系统性研究十分必要。本书通过回答包括“如何测度家庭能源消费？” “中国农村家庭能源消费有何特征？”“什么因素影响了农村家庭的能源转型？”“政府能源转型替代的干预政策效果如何？”以及“不平等如何阻碍了农村家庭的能源转型？”等一系列与农村家庭能源消费转型的相关问题，对中国农村家庭能源消费转型的基础性问题进行了系统性描述刻画和分析探讨。主要研究内容如下：

第一，农村家庭能源消费的测算框架构建与应用。提出基于用能设备的自下而上的家庭能源消费核算方法，并利用微观层面的中国家庭能源消费数据对该方法进行了应用，从能源总量、能源结构和终端用途等方面归纳总结了中国农村家庭的能源消费特征，以及由家庭能源消费所引致的碳排放特征，并通过与其他发展中国家和发达国家的比较识别出中国农村家庭能源消费优化的潜力。

第二，农村家庭能源消费转型的影响因素分析。基于入户调查的数据，构建能源消费转型的计量回归模型，从经济因素和人口统计学特征等方面归纳了家庭用能行为的影响因素，通过理论探讨和实证研究，解析能源消费行为与各影响因素之间的关系，确定家庭能源消费选择的决定因素，并通过对燃料品种数量和收入关系的分析对能源阶梯和能源堆叠假说进行进一步的探讨。

第三，农村能源转型政策的干预效果评估。以北京市散煤治理政策为例，利用倾向得分匹配的方法从能源清洁性和能源充足度两个视角对政策的有效性进行分析，并在此基础上对不同人群进行了异质性分析。

第四，农村能源不平等与能源转型的关系分析。采用洛伦兹曲线、基尼系数和洛伦兹不对称系数评估了中国农村不同能源品种消费的不平等情况。定量考察了不平等程度对中国农村家庭能源消费转型的影响及其具体表现，并从经济分区、气候分区、收入分组和其他影响因素等维度对不平等的来源进行了分解。

最后，基于分析结果，从数据统计核算、推进能源转型、实施能源替代政策等方面给出农村地区推进家庭能源转型的政策建议。

Abstract

As the largest developing country with the population of more than 1.3 billion,the growth in energy consumption and carbon emissions caused by the residential sector is becoming a new major growth pole for energy demand and emissions in China.However,the research focus on energy demand has been mainly concentrated in the industry and transportation sectors,while the energy demand from residential sector has been ignored for a long time.Due to the existence of the dual urban-rural structure in China,there is a significant difference between urban and rural residents'energy consumption pattern.With the development of economy in rural area and the improvement of living standards of rural residents,the substantial increase of energy consumption put great pressure on energy administration.Meanwhile,due to the relatively low level of education and unenlightened awareness of environmental protection,the imbalance in energy consumption and administration poses great challenges to the sustainability of rural energy consumption.Therefore,it is essential to conduct fundamental and systematic research on the energy consumption.This book intends to answer questions,e.g.,“How to measure household energy consumption?”,“What are the characteristics of household energy consumption in rural China?”,“What factors affect rural households'energy choices?”,“What is the effect of the policy intervention on energy substitution?”,“How inequality hinder household energy transition in rural Chi na?”.Such a series of questions related to the transition of rural household energy consumption constitute the fundamental and systematical research of rural household energy consumption in China.The research contents are as follows.

Firstly,the establishment and application of accounting framework of rural household energy consumption.A device-based bottom-up household energy consumption accounting method is proposed systematically,and the micro-data of Chinese household energy consumption are exploited to apply the method.The energy consumption characteristics and carbon emission of rural households in China are summarized from the aspects of total energy,energy structure,and end use.By comparison with other developing and developed countries,the potential for rural household energy transition is discussed.

Secondly,determinants analysis of rural household energy consumption.By using the large-scale nationwide household data,summarizing influencing factors of household energy consumption behavior in terms of economic factors and demographic characteristics,and constructing an econometrical model,the relationship between energy consumption behavior and the influencing factors is analyzed through theoretical and empirical studies.The energy ladder and the energy stacking hypothesis are further explored through the analysis of the relationship between the number of fuel types and income.

Thirdly,evaluation of the rural energy transition policy.Taking the opportunity of the Chinese government's implementation of the scatter coal policy intervention,a propensity score matching method is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the government's administrative mandated energy substitution policy.The effectiveness of coal-to-electricity policy and highquality coal substitution policy is studied from the aspects of residential welfare and environmental cleanliness.

Fourth,the relationship analysis of rural energy inequality and energy transition.The Lorenz curve,Gini coefficient and Lorenz coefficient are used to measure the energy inequality of each fuel.The effect of energy inequality on energy transition is quantitatively measured,and the sources of inequality are decomposed from the dimensions of economic zone,climate zone,income groups and other factors.

Lastly,based on the results,the policy implications are given from the aspects of establishment of statistical accounting system,the energy transition and the implementation of energy substitution policy.

Key Words: Household Energy Consumption; Energy Consumption Measurement; Energy Transition; Scatter Coal Management; Energy Inequality