摘要：工业化是非洲实现包容性和持续性发展的前提，是创造就业、消除贫困、提高生活水平的关键。中国支持非洲国家根据自身国情和发展需求，改善投资软硬环境，以产业对接和产能合作为龙头，助力非洲工业化和经济多元化进程。

中南产能合作互补性强。南非属于中等收入的发展中国家，也是非洲经济最发达的国家。南非自然资源十分丰富；金融、法律体系比较完善；通信、交通、能源等基础设施良好。矿业、制造业、农业和服务业是南非经济发展的四大产业支柱，深井采矿等技术居于世界领先地位。但国民经济各部门、各地区发展不平衡，城乡、黑白二元经济特征明显。近几年来，受全球经济走低，国内罢工频发、电力短缺、消费不振等多重因素影响，南非经济总体低迷，增长乏力。在这样的现实条件下，南非迫切需要中国为其注入经济发展活力，需要中国带来的技术、投资和工作机会。截至2020年年底，中国对南非直接投资（含金融类）存量为61.47亿美元，涉及矿业、金融、制造业、基础设施、媒体等领域。2020年中方对南非直接投资1932万美元（非金融类）。南非在华实际投资约6.6亿美元，集中在啤酒、冶金等行业。

随着双方经贸往来日益紧密以及中非合作论坛机制愈发完善，中南两国在产能合作方面持续深入开展合作，取得了实质性的项目成果。目前，交通运输、装备制造、资源开采、信息通信、工程承包、农产品加工、新能源、金融等行业已成为中国与南非开展产能合作的重点行业，在上述行业领域，中国与南非正在分类有序推进相关产能合作项目，中南双方在产能领域的合作发展迅速，对中非经贸关系乃至中非关系的发展具有强大的推动作用。

总体来看，南非营商环境和中南产能合作面临着各种各样的风险。但南非政局总体而言呈稳定态势，政策实施和连续性较强。随着新冠疫情的结束，在跟踪期内，南非政府在后疫情时代中平复国内暴乱、解决失业问题和恢复经济增长等方面仍面临挑战。

展望未来，一是中国与南非应发挥产能合作机制统筹协调作用，深化在重点领域产能合作对接。二是共同采取支持和便利措施，推进两国产能投资合作便利化，促进两国共同发展。尤其应充分发挥产能合作机制作用，不断完善“企业主体、市场运作、政府引导”的合作机制，对接双方经济发展需求，推动中南项目合作向集群化、规模化、产业化、本土化升级，提升南非生产能力。三是充分发挥金融合作润滑剂作用。金融作为连接中南全方位合作的纽带，对于推动中南市场开放、对接和融合起到了重要作用。如应加快建设南非离岸人民币中心，推动中国与南非互设跨境金融分支机构，强化跨境保险产业。鼓励政策性、商业性保险机构和养老基金加大对南非产能投资的支持力度。四是分享和交流经济发展经验，中国历经四十多年改革开放，从最早的沿海经济特区建设、改革和发展，实现了从计划经济到中国特色社会主义市场经济的成功转型，积累了丰富的经济特区建设、吸引外资、经济转型等经验，中方一再表示愿意分享交流，希望南非能取得类似经济转型发展的成功，实现繁荣发展。

关键词：中南产能合作；南非优势产业；风险评估；成功经验；深化路径

Abstract: Industrialization is the premise for Africa to achieve inclusive and sustainable development,and the key to create employment,eradicate poverty and improve living standards.China supports African countries to improve the soft and hard investment environment according to their national conditions and development needs,and take industrial docking and capacity cooperation as the leader to help Africa's industrialization and economic diversification.

China South Africa capacity cooperation is highly complementary.South Africa is a middle-income developing country and the most economically developed country in Africa.Natural resources are abundant.The financial and legal systems are relatively perfect,and the infrastructure such as communication,transportation and energy is good.Mining,manufacturing,agriculture and service industries are relatively developed,which are the four pillars of the economy.Deep well mining and other technologies are in the leading position in the world.However,the development of various departments and regions of the national economy is unbalanced,and the characteristics of urban-rural and black-and-white dual economy are obvious.In recent years,affected by the decline of the global economy,frequent domestic strikes,power shortage，sluggish consumption and other factors,South Africa's economy is generally depressed and its growth is weak.In this context,the arrival of Chinese companies in South Africa has brought much-needed technology,investment and job opportunities to South Africa's manufacturing industry.By the end of 2020,the stock of China's direct investment in South Africa（including finance）was US$6.147 billion,involving mining,finance,manufacturing,infrastructure,media and other fields.In 2020,China's direct investment in South Africa was 19.32 million US dollars（non-financial）.South Africa's actual investment in China is about US $660 million,mainly in beer,metallurgy and other industries.

With the increasingly frequent economic and trade exchanges between China and South Africa,the production capacity cooperation between the two sides has taken substantive steps.At present,transportation,equipment manufacturing,resource exploitation,information and communication,project contracting,agricultural product processing,new energy,finance and other industries have become key industries for capacity cooperation between China and South Africa.In the above industries,relevant capacity cooperation projects between China and South Africa are being implemented in a classified and orderly manner.The cooperation between China and South Africa in the field of production capacity has developed rapidly,which plays a strong role in promoting the development of China Africa economic and trade relations and even China Africa relations.

Overall,with the business environment in South Africa and the capacity cooperation between South Africa and Central Africa,there are various risks.However,South Africa's political situation is generally stable and policy continuity is strong.However,during the tracking period,the South African government still faces challenges in epidemic control,calming domestic riots and restoring economic growth.

Looking forward to the future.First,China and South Africa should give play to the overall coordination role of the capacity cooperation mechanism and promote capacity cooperation in key areas.Second,jointly take support and facilitation measures to create a favorable environment for business cooperation between the two countries.In particular,we should give full play to the role of the production capacity cooperation mechanism,constantly improve the cooperation mechanism of“enterprise subject,market operation and government guidance”,meet the economic development needs of both sides,promote the upgrading of South Africa project cooperation to clustering,scale,industrialization and localization,and improve the production capacity of South Africa.Third,give full play to the role of financial cooperation.As a link connecting all-round cooperation between central and South Africa,finance has played an important role in promoting the opening,docking and integration of central and South China markets.For example,we should speed up the construction of an offshore RMB center in South Africa,promote the establishment of cross-border financial branches between China and South Africa,and strengthen the cross-border insurance industry.Encourage policy and commercial insurance institutions and pension funds to increase support for capacity investment in South Africa.Fourth,Share and exchange economic development experience and promote the construction of special economic zones in South Africa.China's reform and opening up first benefited from the reform,innovation and development of coastal special economic zones,and has accumulated rich experience for more than 40 years.China is willing to share and exchange its experience in reform and opening up,the construction of special economic zones,attracting foreign investment and economic transformation and upgrading with the south.

Key Words: China and South Africa Cooperation on Capacity of Production; Advantageous Industries in South Africa; Risk Assessment; Successful Experience of ChinaSouth Africa Cooperation on Capacity of Production;Promotion Path of Capacity of production between China and South Africa