教育是人力资本积累的重要途径，同时也是提升效率，促进技术进步的重要因素。本书将教育在经济增长中的贡献及其作用机制作为主要的研究问题，从新古典增长理论、内生经济增长理论、技术扩散理论以及蔡昉、罗斯托的经济发展阶段理论出发，采用宏观和微观数据，主要研究了以下三个方面的内容：其一，从教育水平、教育结构以及教育质量角度分别分析了中国教育发展的变化趋势与特征，并将中国经济增长的阶段特征与特定的经济增长模型相结合，在剔除了资本和技术进步的影响后，分阶段、分不同制度和政策主体测算了教育在中国经济增长中的贡献，同时剥离出教育作为要素积累的直接贡献以及效率提升的间接贡献。其二，从教育在经济增长过程中与技术、资本、制度、结构多维度的交互关系出发，分析了教育通过要素积累、效率提升、资本互补、制度耦合以及配置结构五个方面产生的线性作用机制以及非线性作用机制。其三，从空间维度探讨了高等教育的本地—邻地效应，并采用双重差分法估计了高等教育对区域经济增长的因果效应。通过时间与空间分析相结合、静态与动态模型相结合来解释教育在中国经济增长中的作用。

基于以上分析得到的主要结论如下：

第一，改革开放以来，中国劳动力整体受教育水平不断提高，从基本完成小学教育阶段的5年左右提升到10年以上，平均受教育水平的增长呈现省际“收敛”态势；从教育层次结构来看，中国高等教育劳动力数量占比不断提高，初等教育和中等教育劳动力数量占比先上升后下降，高等教育的地区差异大于中等教育；从教育地区分布结构来看，教育离散度呈现“双峰”分布，教育水平的两极分布差异均较大；从包含教育质量的人力资本结构来看，农村男性和农村女性的人力资本处于下降趋势，城镇男性和城镇女性的人力资本呈上升趋势；从性别差异角度看，男性人力资本普遍高于女性；从城乡差异角度看，城乡人力资本差异先减小后增大。

第二，通过全周期和分段估计的方法阐释了中国经济增长的阶段特征，并将这种特征与特定的经济增长模型相结合，印证了中国经济增长的阶段性特征，在此基础上进一步测算了教育对不同时期经济增长的贡献，发现在剔除了资本和技术进步的影响后，过去近30年间经济增长中教育的贡献率从9.6%增加到14.2%，平均贡献率为10.38%。其中直接贡献为8.75%，占总贡献率的84.3%，间接贡献为1.63%，占总贡献率的15.7%，但是其间接贡献率逐年提升，反映了人力资本外部性作用在逐年增强。在人力资本的直接贡献部分中，劳动力人数增加的贡献为4.62%，占43%，而劳动力质量提升的贡献占57%，说明过去近30年间人力资本的直接贡献中更多地依赖劳动力质量即教育水平的提升来实现；从分省样本的测算来看，在教育水平相近的不同制度与政策的地区中，制度和政策因素制约了教育对经济增长作用的发挥；然而，在政策和制度相近的地区中，教育和人力资本水平仍是经济增长的重要驱动因素。

第三，从作用机制角度看，首先不同层次的教育在经济增长中的作用机制存在差异，其中初级教育人力资本更多地通过要素积累直接促进经济增长，高级教育人力资本更多地通过技术进步间接促进经济增长。其次，教育与物质资本之间存在互补性，而且经济发展水平越高的地区互补效应越强。此外，考虑了教育的部门配置结构以后，教育水平的变化对经济增长产生了显著的正向促进作用；教育对经济增长的影响存在地区经济发展水平以及发展阶段的异质性，当人均GDP处于小于5658元的低收入阶段时，教育对经济增长的影响较小，为0.039，当人均GDP处于5658—41873元的中等收入阶段时影响效应为0.05，大于41873元时影响效应为0.064，影响系数显著变大，说明了教育对经济增长具有显著的阶段性特征，很好地回应了经济发展阶段理论。

第四，从贡献测算的结果来看，要素积累仍然是中国经济增长的主要贡献者，教育作为要素积累的直接贡献占84.3%，而效率提升等间接贡献占15.7%。从教育的作用机制角度看，要素积累的作用（0.288）大于技术进步的作用（0.038）。

第五，以高等教育和城镇劳动力收入指数表征的高级人力资本通过技术创新间接促进本地经济增长，还存在“本地—邻地”协同效应。引进高校能够持续带动区域经济增长，而对产业升级的促进作用存在时滞效应，引进高校通过更多地促进初始经济水平和产业结构水平较低地区的经济增长来缩小地区发展差距，还可以通过影响技术进步带动区域经济增长和产业升级。

关键词：教育；高等教育；经济增长；贡献；机制

Abstract

Education is not only an important way to accumulate human capital,but also a key factor to improve efficiency and promote technological progress.The main research question of this work is the contribution of education to economic growth and its mechanism.Starting from the neoclassical growth theory,endogenous economic growth theory,technology diffusion theory,and Cai Fang's and Rostow's economic development stage theory,this work made effort in the following three aspects through macro and micro data：

（a）The changing trend and characteristics of China's education development were analyzed from the perspective of education level,education structure,and education quality,respectively.And the stage characteristics of China's economic growth were combined with a specific economic growth model.After excluding the influence of capital and technological progress,the contribution of education to China's economic growth was calculated by stages,different institutions,and policy subjects.At the same time,the direct contribution of education as factor accumulation and the indirect contribution of efficiency improvement were separated.

（b）starting from the multi-dimensional interaction between education and technology,capital,institution,and structure in the process of economic growth,the paper analyzes the linear and nonlinear mechanism of action produced by education through the accumulation of factors,efficien cy improvement,capital complementarity,institution coupling,and allocation structure.

（c）the paper discusses the local-neighborhood effect of higher education from the spatial dimension and estimates the causal effect of higher education on regional economic growth by using the method of differential difference.The role of education in China's economic growth was explained through the combination of time and space analysis as well as static and dynamic models.

The main conclusions based on the above analysis are as follows：

Since the reform and opening up,China's labour force has experienced a significant increase in overall education level,from about five years after the completion of primary education to more than 10 years,and the growth of average years of schooling has shown an inter-provincial“convergence”trend.Regarding the structure of education levels,the proportion of China's labour force with higher education has been increasing.Meanwhile,the proportion of labour force with primary and secondary education has risen and then declined.Additionally,regional disparities in higher education are greater than those in secondary education.In terms of the regional distribution structure of education,the dispersion of education shows a“bimodal”distribution,with large differences in the distribution of education levels at both poles.Regarding the structure of human capital,which encompasses the quality of education,the human capital of rural males and rural females is on a downward trend,while that of urban males and urban females is on an upward trend.From the perspective of gender differences,the human capital of men is generally higher than that of women,and from the perspective of urban-rural differences,the difference between urban and rural human capital decreases first and then increases.

Secondly,the contribution of education to economic growth varies in different periods of development.After depriving the impact of capital and technological progress,we get that the contribution rate of human capital to economic growth is 10.38% in the past 30 years.Among them,the direct contribution is 8.75%,accounting for 84.3% of the total contribution rate,the indirect contribution is 1.63%,accounting for 15.7% of the total contribution rate,but its indirect contribution rate is increasing year by year,reflecting that the role of human capital externality is increasing year by year.Among the direct contribution of human capital,the increase of labor force accounts for 4.62%,accounting for 43% of the total contribution rate,while the improvement of labor quality accounts for 57%.This shows that the direct contribution of human capital in the past 30 years depends more on the improvement of labor quality.

Thirdly,from the perspective of the mechanism,there are differences among the mechanism of different levels of education in economic growth.Primary education human capital promotes economic growth more through factor accumulation,and advanced education human capital promotes economic growth more through technological progress.In addition,there is complementarity between education and material capital,and the higher the level of economic development,the stronger the regional complementary effect.What's more,the change of education has a significant positive impact on economic growth considering the allocation structure of education sector.The impact of education on economic growth has regional economic development level and time heterogeneity.Taking GDP per capita as a threshold variable,the results show that when GDP per capita is less than 5658 yuan,education has no significant promoting effect on economic growth.It is significantly positive between 5658 and 41873 yuan,and highly significant when GDP per capita is greater than 41873 yuan,and the coefficient becomes larger,reflecting the enormous promoting effect of education on economic growth.

Fourthly,from the perspective of a contribution calculation results,the factors of accumulation are still a major contributor to China's economic growth,with the direct contribution of factor accumulation accounting for 84.3% and the indirect contribution such as efficiency improvement accounting for 15.7%,meanwhile from the perspective of the mechanism of education,the effect of factor accumulation（0.288）is greater than that of technological progress（0.038）.

Fifthly,advanced human capital represented by higher education and the urban labor income index indirectly promotes local economic growth through technological innovation and has a“local-neighborhood”synergistic effect.The introduction of colleges and universities can continue to drive regional economic growth,but there was a time lag effect on the promotion of industrial upgrading.The introduction of colleges and universities can narrow the regional development gap by promoting the economic growth of regions with lower initial economic level and industrial structure levels,and promote regional economic growth and industrial upgrading by influencing technological progress.

Key Words:Education; Higher education; Economic growth; Contribution;Mechanism