2008年爆发的全球金融危机和经济危机对宏观经济政策与宏观经济学理论提出了空前严峻的挑战。一度被认为对“大缓和”（Great Moderation）功不可没的宏观经济学“新共识”（New Consensus in Macroeconomics）及其货币政策理论一夜之间成为众矢之的。那么，宏观经济学中的“新共识”及其货币政策理论具体都包含什么内容？在本书中，为了叙述方便，我们将宏观经济学“新共识”中的货币政策理论部分简称为“新共识”货币政策理论。“新共识”货币政策理论是西方发达国家在特定经济发展阶段下宏观经济学理论与政策实践相结合的产物，具有深厚的理论和政策实践基础。在理论层面上，“新共识”货币政策理论植根于凯恩斯主义宏观经济学和新古典宏观经济学的融合，集中体现了20世纪70年代末以来主流宏观经济学在理论和技术方法上的成果。政策分析通常建立在新凯恩斯主义最优化模型框架基础之上，除了包括用于刻画总供给（AS曲线）的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线之外，还包括动态产品市场均衡条件（IS曲线）和用于分析货币市场均衡条件（LM曲线）的货币政策规则。主流的货币政策规则是泰勒规则（Taylor Rule），货币数量淡出政策模型，这一变化隐含着货币供给理论从外生供给向内生供给的转变。内生货币供给意味着货币数量主要由货币需求决定，中央银行无法完全控制货币数量。在政策实践层面上，“新共识”货币政策框架是对凯恩斯主义和货币主义政策框架的扬弃，是对自20世纪70年代末以来货币政策实践，特别是反通货膨胀政策的经验总结。自20世纪70年代以来，在反通货膨胀实践取得成功的同时，发达国家货币政策体系经历了深刻的变化。价格稳定已成为货币政策最重要的最终目标；相机抉择逐步被政策规则取代；政策规则的中间目标经历了从货币数量、名义汇率等向通货膨胀预测值的变化；政策工具由传统的“三大法宝”变换货币市场基准利率。货币需求往往具有不稳定性，这导致各国中央银行逐渐放弃货币数量目标。正当“新共识”货币政策理论如日中天之时，2008年爆发的次贷危机深刻暴露出这一理论框架存在诸多缺陷和不足。危机之后经济学家认为“新共识”货币政策理论的缺陷主要源于三个方面：一是宏观经济学理论的缺陷；二是政策实践与经济发展阶段的脱节；三是货币政策操作过程中存在的技术性困难。“新共识”货币政策理论框架同样对中国货币政策的理论研究和政策实践产生了重大影响。中国的改革一直遵循着市场化方向。在货币政策方面，无论是理论研究还是政策实践都较多地借鉴西方国家的经验。发达国家流行的通货膨胀盯住制和泰勒规则多年来一直是中国理论研究和政策借鉴的热点对象。危机之后经济学家的反思和批判使我们得以更加全面地理解“新共识”货币政策框架的特征。目前中国经济的发展阶段（特别是金融市场）与西方发达国家尚有较大差距，要想从中国的角度客观地批判“新共识”货币政策框架必须要区分该政策体系所暴露出的问题中哪些是源于宏观经济学理论自身的缺陷，哪些是源于西方国家的政策失误，还有哪些是政策实践中客观存在的困难之处。随着利率市场化进程加速，中国货币政策框架可能面临重大调整。我们又该如何借鉴发达国家的经验和教训？毕竟中国的货币政策体系与发达国家存在显著差异，中国尚未建立起完备的市场化利率体系，仍以货币数量为中间目标，而且货币政策深受财政和产业政策的影响等。本书试图在梳理金融危机之后发达国家货币政策理论最新变化的基础上，结合中国货币政策体系现状，考察最新的理论发展和实践经验如何为完善中国货币政策体系提供借鉴。本书分为以下几个部分：第一编介绍“新共识”货币政策理论的基本内容及其形成背景，包括第一章至第五章。第一章总结“新共识”货币政策理论的基本内容及其理论与实践基础。第二章通过一个简单的“新共识”货币政策理论模型说明该模型的主要特征，模型出自Galí（2009）。第三章主要介绍“新共识”货币政策的操作规则和政策传导渠道。第四章主要介绍货币政策目标，在“新共识”货币政策理论模型中，货币政策的理论基础从菲利普斯曲线转向泰勒曲线，货币政策目标从权衡产出与通货膨胀之间的替代关系转向权衡产出缺口波动（方差）与通货膨胀缺口波动（方差）之间的替代关系。第五章主要介绍“新共识”货币政策框架下的最优货币政策，包括稳定性货币政策的目标函数以及最优货币政策的特征。第二编介绍新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线（New Keynesian Phillips Curve，NKPC）的蜕变和发展，包括第六章至第八章。作为“新共识”货币政策的核心方程之一，经济学家自新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线产生之日就不断对其进行改进和发展。“新共识”货币政策框架包含三个核心方程，分别是新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线、动态IS曲线和泰勒规则。第六章主要介绍新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线在实证方面的改进，包括新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线向混合菲利普斯曲线的蜕变，以及混合菲利普斯曲线的实证研究方法。第七章将内生供给冲击纳入新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线中，以解决“新共识”货币政策模型中的“天赐巧合”（Divine Coincidence）问题。“天赐巧合”是指在“新共识”货币政策框架下，稳定通货膨胀与稳定产出缺口之间存在一致性的问题。第八章将非零稳态通货膨胀引入新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线，考察非零稳态通货膨胀条件下，新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线的扩展。第三编总结金融危机之后，发达国家货币政策实践以及货币政策理论的反思与发展，包括第九章至第十章。其中第九章总结了金融危机之后，包括美国、欧元区和日本等发达国家非常规货币政策的理论和实践。在简要介绍相关理论的基础之上，这一章总结了各经济体逐步深入实施非常规货币政策的进程，并比较了各经济体非常规货币政策的差异及其原因。第十章总结了“新共识”货币政策框架在危机期间所面临的挑战、应对措施，以及经济学家对该政策框架的反思，包括：将金融市场和货币（信贷）纳入政策分析框架方面的新进展；经济学家对改进和完善现有货币政策规则的新主张；货币政策如何应对资产泡沫问题等等。第四编是本书的最后一部分，包括第十一章到第十三章。第十一章总结中国现有货币政策体系与西方发达国家之间的差异以及中国独特国情所造成的货币政策框架面临的困境，并对中国货币政策框架如何借鉴发达国家经验进行初步探讨。第十二章分析指出在中国经济“新常态”下，货币政策面临的双重目标是控风险和稳增长。结合中国经济当前所面临的金融动荡和经济下行压力，本章首先指出货币政策所面临的“降杠杆”“去产能”等压力，然后指出“新常态”下中国货币政策转型的思路。第十三章讨论了利率市场化条件下，中国货币政策框架的重构问题。本章首先分析了中国目前存在的金融抑制条件下的利率双轨制体系；进而对比了“公开市场操作”和“利率走廊”作为利率市场化条件下货币政策当局调控政策利率主要方式的特点；结合中国金融市场发展的现状，本章提出“利率走廊”模式更加适合中国利率市场化改革的方向。最后是本书的参考文献。

The global financial and economic crisis that erupted in 2008 posed unprecedented challenges to macroeconomic policy and macroeconomic theory. The "New Consensus in Macroeconomics" and its monetary policy theory, once considered indispensable to the Great Moderation, became the target overnight. So, what exactly does the "new consensus" in macroeconomics and its monetary policy theory contain? In this book, for the sake of narrative convenience, we refer to the monetary policy theory part of the "New Consensus" in macroeconomics as the "New Consensus" monetary policy theory. The "New Consensus" monetary policy theory is the product of the combination of macroeconomic theory and policy practice in Western developed countries at a specific stage of economic development, and has a profound theoretical and policy practice foundation. At the theoretical level, the "New Consensus" monetary policy theory is rooted in the integration of Keynesian macroeconomics and neoclassical macroeconomics, and embodies the achievements of mainstream macroeconomics in theoretical and technical methods since the late 70s of the 20th century. Policy analysis is usually based on the framework of neo-Keynesian optimization models, including the New Keynesian Phillips curve for characterizing aggregate supply (AS curve), dynamic product-market equilibrium conditions (IS curve) and monetary policy rules for analyzing money market equilibrium conditions (LM curve). The mainstream monetary policy rule is the Taylor Rule, in which the amount of money fades out of the policy model, a change that implies the shift of money supply theory from exogenous supply to endogenous supply. Endogenous money supply means that the amount of money is mainly determined by the demand for money, and the central bank cannot fully control the amount of money. At the level of policy practice, the "New Consensus" monetary policy framework is a rejection of Keynesian and monetarist policy frameworks, and a summary of the experience of monetary policy practice since the late 70s of the 20th century, especially anti-inflation policies. Since the 70s of the 20th century, while the anti-inflation practice has been successful, the monetary policy system of developed countries has undergone profound changes. Price stability has become the most important ultimate goal of monetary policy; Camera choices are gradually being replaced by policy rules; The intermediate objective of the policy rule undergoes a change from the quantity of money, nominal exchange rate, etc. to the inflation forecast; Policy tools change the benchmark interest rate in the money market by the traditional "three magic weapons". Money demand tends to be volatile, which leads central banks to gradually abandon monetary quantity targets. Just as the "New Consensus" monetary policy theory was in full swing, the subprime mortgage crisis that broke out in 2008 profoundly exposed many flaws and shortcomings in this theoretical framework. After the crisis, economists believe that the shortcomings of the "new consensus" monetary policy theory mainly stem from three aspects: first, the shortcomings of macroeconomic theory; Second, the disconnect between policy practice and the stage of economic development; Third, there are technical difficulties in the operation of monetary policy. The theoretical framework of "New Consensus" monetary policy has also had a significant impact on the theoretical research and policy practice of China's monetary policy. China's reform has always followed the direction of marketization. In terms of monetary policy, both theoretical research and policy practice draw more on the experience of Western countries. The inflation peg system and Taylor rule, which are popular in developed countries, have been hot spots for China's theoretical research and policy borrowing for many years. The post-crisis reflection and critique of economists has enabled us to understand more fully the characteristics of the New Consensus monetary policy framework. At present, there is still a big gap between the development stage of China's economy (especially the financial market) and Western developed countries, and in order to objectively criticize the "new consensus" monetary policy framework from China's perspective, it is necessary to distinguish which of the problems exposed by the policy system are due to the shortcomings of macroeconomic theory itself, which are due to the policy mistakes of Western countries, and which are the objective difficulties in policy practice. As interest rate liberalization accelerates, China's monetary policy framework may face major adjustments. How can we learn from the experiences and lessons of developed countries? After all, China's monetary policy system is significantly different from that of developed countries, China has not yet established a complete market-oriented interest rate system, still takes the amount of money as the intermediate goal, and monetary policy is deeply affected by fiscal and industrial policies. This book attempts to sort out the latest changes in monetary policy theory in developed countries after the financial crisis, combined with the current situation of China's monetary policy system, and examine how the latest theoretical development and practical experience can provide reference for improving China's monetary policy system. The book is divided into the following parts: Part I introduces the basic content of the "New Consensus" monetary policy theory and the background of its formation, including chapters 1 to 5. Chapter 1 summarizes the basic content of the "New Consensus" monetary policy theory and its theoretical and practical basis. Chapter 2 illustrates the main features of this model through a simple "new consensus" monetary policy theory model, from Galí (2009). Chapter 3 mainly introduces the operating rules and policy transmission channels of the "new consensus" monetary policy. Chapter 4 mainly introduces monetary policy objectives, in the "new consensus" monetary policy theory model, the theoretical basis of monetary policy from Phillips curve to Taylor curve, monetary policy objective from weighing the alternative relationship between output and inflation to weighing the alternative relationship between output gap fluctuation (variance) and inflation gap fluctuation (variance). Chapter 5 mainly introduces the optimal monetary policy under the framework of the "New Consensus" monetary policy, including the objective function of stable monetary policy and the characteristics of optimal monetary policy. Part II introduces the metamorphosis and development of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC), including chapters VI through VIII. As one of the core equations of the "new consensus" monetary policy, economists have continuously improved and developed it since the birth of the new Keynesian Phillips curve. The "New Consensus" monetary policy framework contains three core equations, namely the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the dynamic IS curve, and the Taylor rule. Chapter 6 mainly introduces the empirical improvement of the new Keynesian Phillips curve, including the metamorphosis of the new Keynesian Phillips curve to the mixed Phillips curve, and the empirical research method of the mixed Phillips curve. Chapter 7 incorporates endogenous supply shocks into the New Keynes Phillips curve to address the "Divine Coincidence" problem in the "new consensus" monetary policy model. "God's coincidence" refers to the problem of consistency between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the output gap under the framework of the "new consensus" monetary policy. Chapter 8 introduces non-zero steady-state inflation into the New Keynes Phillips curve and examines the expansion of the New Keynes Phillips curve under the condition of non-zero steady-state inflation. Part III summarizes the practice of monetary policy and the reflection and development of monetary policy theory in developed countries after the financial crisis, including chapters 9 to 10. Chapter 9 summarizes the theory and practice of unconventional monetary policy in developed countries such as the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan after the financial crisis. Based on a brief introduction to the relevant theories, this chapter summarizes the process of gradual and in-depth implementation of unconventional monetary policies in various economies, and compares the differences in unconventional monetary policies among economies and their causes. Chapter 10 summarizes the challenges faced by the New Consensus monetary policy framework during the crisis, the responses, and economists' reflections on the policy framework, including: new developments in integrating financial markets and money (credit) into the policy analysis framework; new ideas from economists for improving and perfecting existing monetary policy rules; How monetary policy responds to asset bubbles and so on. Part IV is the final part of the book and includes chapters 11 to 13. Chapter 11 summarizes the differences between China's current monetary policy system and Western developed countries, as well as the difficulties faced by China's monetary policy framework caused by China's unique national conditions, and discusses how China's monetary policy framework can learn from the experience of developed countries. Chapter 12 analyzes that under the "new normal" of China's economy, the dual goals of monetary policy are risk control and stable growth. Combined with the current financial turmoil and economic downward pressure on China's economy, this chapter first points out the pressures of "deleveraging" and "capacity reduction" faced by monetary policy, and then points out the thinking of China's monetary policy transformation under the "new normal". Chapter 13 discusses the restructuring of China's monetary policy framework under the conditions of interest rate liberalization. This chapter first analyzes the dual-track system of interest rates under the current conditions of financial repression in China. Furthermore, the characteristics of "open market operation" and "interest rate corridor" as the main ways for monetary policy authorities to regulate and control policy interest rates under the condition of interest rate marketization are compared. Considering the current situation of China's financial market development, this chapter proposes that the "interest rate corridor" model is more suitable for the direction of China's interest rate market-oriented reform. Finally, there are the references for this book.（AI翻译）