本书是由王国刚担任首席专家的国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“中国货币供应机制与未来通货膨胀风险研究”（项目批准号：09&ZD036）的结题报告。该项目在下达以后，课题组按照课题申请计划和“项目立项通知书”的内容要求，认真展开了课题的研究工作。在两年左右的时间内，课题组先后召开了6次课题组研究会，对本课题所涉及的研究范围、研究内容、研究思路、研究方法和研究难点等进行了深入探讨，同时，就本课题中涉及的重点问题，在中国社会科学院金融研究所举行了5次公开研讨会。课题组成员在研究过程中，积极认真，以科学严谨的态度和务实求真的精神，展开了资料收集、实地调研、数据处理、课题组研讨和初稿撰写等科研工作，到2011年11月，初稿基本完成。在课题研究过程中，课题组成员共完成研究报告12篇，发表论文30多篇（其中一些论文在《中国社会科学》、《经济研究》等全国最高等级期刊上发表），向社科基金规划办提供了3篇“国家社会科学基金项目成果要报”（全部被采用）。本书的研究内容从经济发展方式转变入手，探讨了未来一段时间内，我国工业经济和城镇化发展的总体趋势背景下，经济增长的可持续性和对货币政策的要求；通过对20世纪90年代中期以来，中国GDP结构和消费结构的研究，分析了在扩大内需中消费和投资的关系，为“货币供应机制与未来通货膨胀风险研究”提供了宏观经济的基本背景。另外，探讨了全球通货膨胀的趋势，论证了全球通货膨胀下落趋势和菲利普斯曲线的变化。同时，分析了主要发达国家的通货膨胀走势和治理通胀的历史经验，为探讨我国通货膨胀的未来走势，提供了国际环境的背景和可借鉴的国际经验。在背景分析的基础上，本书从基础理论出发，探讨分析了货币、金融和资金之间的基本关系，研究了我国货币统计和货币层次划分中的不足以及由这些不足引致的一系列理论和实践问题，并对比主要发达国家的货币统计情况，提出了修正我国货币统计和货币层次划分的建议。同时，引入了宏观经济学最新发展的黏性信息理论，在对这一理论分析的基础上，探讨了黏性信息经济中的货币政策哲学问题。继理论分析之后，本书着手于中国实践的分析，既分析2001-2010年间中国货币政策最终目标和中间目标实现的内在机理，也分析了这一期间中国货币供应机制和货币政策传导的内在机理。同时，对国内流行的“货币超发”说法进行了研究，对迄今依然为许多人所运用的“货币乘数”的有效性进行了更加深入的探讨。在这个过程中，分析了21世纪以来，中国经济高速增长过程中的物价上涨走势，认为这一期间，中国并不存在通货膨胀，物价上涨的主要成因是某种或某几种农产品的供不应求引致的；在未来的发展中，农产品价格上涨还将是中国物价上涨的主要成因，而且很可能每隔三年左右就再现一次，解决这一问题的主要政策取向不是运用货币政策，而是运用财政政策和行政机制。银行信贷是重要的货币供应机制。我们不仅分析了银行信贷对货币供应的影响，而且分析了影子银行体系在中国货币供应中的影响力度，探讨了银行信贷和影子银行体系对货币政策有效性的影响力度。在此基础上，探讨了应对物价上涨的财税政策，并从更加宽广的视角分析了货币活性和通货膨胀的关系。货币供应对价格的影响，不仅表现在商品价格方面，还表现在对房地产价格、资产价格等方面，有鉴于此，我们在分析了货币供应与物价变动的关系之后，着力探讨了货币供应与房地产市场价格和资产价格的变动关系。同时，分析了养老金、保险基金等对货币供应和资产价格的影响力度，从中得出了一系列有益的结论。最后，从宏观审慎监管角度分析了如何完善货币供应机制以促进金融稳定和价格平稳。我们在课题研究中基于深入探讨分析，在12个方面取得了新的认识：1.系统分析了中国未来10-20年的经济增长的可持续性，认为在工业化和城镇化进程中，中国经济增长还将保持在较高水平。2.深入探讨了城镇化与经济发展方式转变的关系，认为就全国而言，经济发展方式转变指的是从工业经济推动转变为城镇经济拉动。在这个过程中，以消费结构从“吃、穿、用”向“住、行、学”的升级转变为取向，以加大消费型投资为重心，以实现全面小康和民生工程为目标，展开经济发展方式的转变。3.自20世纪90年代以后，受高科技带来的生产率提高、货币政策的完善、金融开放度的提高、贸易一体化的增强和国际竞争的强化等一系列因素的影响，世界各国和地区的通胀呈现下落趋势，这给中国经济发展带来了难得的机遇期，也给中国经济发展以可资借鉴的经验。4.理清了货币、金融与资金三者之间的逻辑关系。货币并非任何实物，它是一种经济机能。这种经济机能以信用关系为基础以有效反映各种交易物品（包括商品、劳务、金融产品和其他进入交易市场的物品）之间的比价关系为机制以媒介、实现和推进交易为基本功能。在现代经济中，货币由制度机制予以界定，它本身即无价值也无价值尺度和贮藏功能。金融，在本质上，是在资产权益基础上以获得这些权力的未来收益为标的而进行的交易过程和这些交易关系的总和。资金，是指具有货币机能的金融资产。在现实生活中，人们讲的“货币”通常指的是“资金”。从货币、金融和资金三者关系出发，货币政策（乃至货币供应）和金融监管应将主要注意力集中于“资金”的流向、流量和流速等方面。5.划分货币层次的传统标准存在着诸多缺陷，根据中国经济和金融的发展状况，应对现行的货币层次划分进行修改，具体设想是：M0=流通中的现金-跨境流通的人民币现金余额M1=M0+个人信用卡循环信用额度+银行承兑汇票余额+活期储蓄存款+企业可开列支票活期存款M2=M1+机关团体存款+农村存款M3=M2+企业定期存款+居民人民币定期储蓄存款+其他存款（信托存款、委托存款、保证金存款、财政预算外存款）+外币（折合人民币）存款M4=M3+货币市场基金份额+非银行金融机构回购协议+非银行企业持有的短期政府债券+住房公积金存款。6.货币政策目标的实现程度反映了货币供应量与经济增长之间的关系。2001-2010年的10年间，从货币政策最终目标方面看，在有效促进经济增长的同时，并未发生由于货币供应过多引致的通货膨胀。这期间的物价上涨，主要是由某种或某几种农产品的暂时供不应求所引致的。鉴于中国将长期处于农产品的紧平衡格局中，某种或某几种农产品暂时性短缺现象还将发生，由此，很可能每隔三年左右出现一次物价上涨走势。从货币政策的中间目标看，以M2代表的货币供应量的预期增幅与实际增幅之间的差幅小于GDP增长率的预期增幅与实际增幅，这表明货币政策的中间目标得到了较好的实现。7.在货币供应机制方面，提高法定存款准备金率、发行央行票据等并无紧缩货币供应量的效应；提高存贷款基准利率不仅没有紧缩效应，而且有着扩张贷款的效应。这些是引致需要对新增贷款数量采取行政管控的主要成因。在中国现行体制下，运用行政机制管控新增贷款还是调控货币供应量的一个主要机制。8.中国实践中并不存在“货币超发”现象，所谓M2数额和增长率超过GDP的说法是不科学的。另外，继续以货币乘数来估量流通中的货币量和基础货币的多少，已不符合当今的经济实践。在这方面需要根据具体条件，进行更加细致分析，才能得出符合实践的结论。9.在中国，“影子银行活动”主要反映了监管体制与银行业发展之间的矛盾。影子银行体系并非是对推动物价上涨的主要力量。10.大宗商品价格指数对中国物价上涨的影响力相对有限，显著性也较弱些；但不能忽视资产价格因素（房价）对物价上涨的影响。11.货币供应、信贷政策通过对开发商行为、土地供应和购房需求等的影响，对房地产价格走势有着比较明显的影响。同时，对股票市场价格、成交量等也有比较明显的影响。12.养老金、保险基金对货币供应量有着重要影响，也是影响资产价格的重要因素，因此，应当关注货币政策与养老基金和保险资金政策的协调，加强养老保险、保险资金监管，推进金融资产价格稳定。我们在研究中采用了如下三种方法：1.理论逻辑与实践逻辑（包括历史逻辑）相结合的方法。以实践逻辑印证理论逻辑，以理论逻辑揭示实践逻辑的内在机理。2.规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法。以规范分析为实证分析的导向，以实证分析为规范分析的印证。3.定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法。以定性分析展开理论逻辑，以定量分析展开实践逻辑，同时，实现二者的有机结合。本研究成果的重要意义有三：第一，系统地探讨和分析了中国经济发展方式转变的主要取向和主要内容，证明了“住、行、学”是消费结构升级的重心所在，提出了加大消费型投资是保障中国经济发展的全面性、协调性和可持续性的关键。这对明确宏观经济调控方向、力度和目标有着积极重要的意义。第二，较为全面系统地探讨和分析了中国货币供应机制与物价上涨的关系，对货币供应的四类传导机制及其在中国实践中的状况进行了深入研究，论证了利率传导机制的差异性、信贷传导机制的有效性和资产价格传导机制的重要性，这对于完善中国的货币政策和加强宏观审慎监管有着重要意义；另外，论证了2001-2010年中国货币供应与物价上涨的关系，指出连续三次的物价上涨并非通货膨胀，解决问题的举措应当是以财政政策为主，这对于完善宏观政策调控机制有着重要意义。第三，深入探讨和分析了货币供应与资产价格的关系，指出货币供应的数量变动直接影响着房地产价格、股市价格等资产价格；养老金和保险基金是这些货币供应中不可忽视的构成部分，因此，在进行货币供应调控中，需要关注资产价格的变化和养老金、保险基金运作对货币供应的影响。限于种种客观条件不成熟和本课题的范围局限，我们有三个问题未能深入探讨：第一，未能深入探讨和分析人民币存贷款利率市场化背景下的货币供应和物价上涨之间的关系。第二，未能深入探讨和分析资本账户开放条件下的货币供应和物价上涨之间的关系，因此，没有对货币供应的汇率渠道进行研究。第三，由于宏观审慎监管的取向、内容、机制和政策工具等还是一个有待进一步探讨的问题，所以，本成果未能深入分析宏观审慎监管与货币供应（从而与物价上涨）之间的关系。这些问题有待今后的研究予以深化和完善。值得一提的是，本书完稿于2011年年底，文章的数据大致截至2010年。但由于它并不妨碍本书研究结论的成立，所以，我们没有对书中的数据进行新的补充完善。本书各章的执笔人分别为：何海峰（第一章）、王国刚（第二、七、十、十一和十二章）、余维彬（第三章）、闫小娜（第四章）、宣晓影（第五章）、彭兴韵（第六、八和九章）、周莉萍（第十三章）、曾刚（第十四章）、袁增霆（第十五章）、杨涛（第十六章）、刘煜辉（第十七章）、尹中立（第十八章）、曹红辉（第十九章）、郭金龙（第二十章）、全先银（第二十一章）。参加本书研究成果研讨的人员（除执笔人外）包括：殷剑峰、董裕平、程炼、张跃文、胡志浩、徐义国、黄国平、蔡真和费兆奇。为本书的写作提供资料和相关帮助的人员包括：赵培德、刘戈平、石锦屏、罗滢、薛波、谢芳、张炜、刘建立、赵珅和王双。本书的出版得到了中国社会科学院创新工程“出版基金”的资助和中国社会科学出版社的大力支持，特表示感谢。

This book is the final report of the major bidding project of the National Social Science Foundation of China "Research on China's Money Supply Mechanism and Future Inflation Risk" (project approval number: 09&ZD036) of which Wang Guogang is the chief expert. After the project was issued, the research group seriously carried out the research work of the project in accordance with the content requirements of the project application plan and the "project approval notice". In about two years, the research group has held 6 research group research meetings to conduct in-depth discussions on the research scope, research content, research ideas, research methods and research difficulties involved in this topic, and at the same time, held 5 public seminars on the key issues involved in this topic, and held 5 public seminars on the key issues involved in this topic, the Institute of Finance, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. In the process of research, the members of the research group actively and conscientiously, with a scientific and rigorous attitude and the spirit of pragmatism and truth-seeking, carried out scientific research work such as data collection, field research, data processing, research group discussion and first draft writing, and by November 2011, the first draft was basically completed. In the process of project research, the members of the research group completed a total of 12 research reports, published more than 30 papers (some of which were published in the highest national journals such as "Chinese Social Sciences" and "Economic Research"), and provided 3 "National Social Science Foundation Project Results Reports" to the Planning Office of the Social Science Foundation (all of which were adopted). The research content of this book starts from the transformation of economic development mode, and discusses the sustainability of economic growth and the requirements for monetary policy in the context of the overall trend of China's industrial economy and urbanization development in the coming period. Through the study of China's GDP structure and consumption structure since the mid-90s of the 20th century, the relationship between consumption and investment in the expansion of domestic demand is analyzed, which provides the basic macroeconomic background for the "study of money supply mechanism and future inflation risk". In addition, the trend of global inflation is discussed, and the trend of global inflation decline and the change of the Phillips curve are demonstrated. At the same time, the inflation trend of major developed countries and the historical experience of inflation control are analyzed, which provides the background of the international environment and the international experience for reference for discussing the future trend of inflation in China. On the basis of background analysis, this book starts from the basic theory, discusses and analyzes the basic relationship between money, finance and funds, studies the deficiencies in China's monetary statistics and monetary hierarchy and a series of theoretical and practical problems caused by these deficiencies, and compares the monetary statistics of major developed countries, and puts forward suggestions for revising China's monetary statistics and monetary hierarchy. At the same time, the sticky information theory developed in macroeconomics is introduced, and on the basis of this theoretical analysis, the philosophical issues of monetary policy in the sticky information economy are discussed. Following the theoretical analysis, this book begins with the analysis of China's practice, not only analyzing the internal mechanism of the realization of the ultimate and intermediate goals of China's monetary policy from 2001 to 2010, but also analyzing the internal mechanism of China's money supply mechanism and monetary policy transmission during this period. At the same time, the popular "currency over-issuance" theory in China is studied, and the effectiveness of the "money multiplier" that is still used by many people is discussed in more depth. In this process, this paper analyzes the price rise trend in the process of China's rapid economic growth since the 21st century, and believes that there was no inflation in China during this period, and the main cause of price rise was caused by the short supply of certain or several agricultural products. In the future, the rise in agricultural prices will also be the main cause of China's price increases, and it is likely to reappear every three years or so, and the main policy orientation to solve this problem is not to use monetary policy, but to use fiscal policy and administrative mechanisms. Bank credit is an important money supply mechanism. We analyze not only the impact of bank credit on the money supply, but also the influence of the shadow banking system in China's money supply, and the influence of bank credit and the shadow banking system on the effectiveness of monetary policy. On this basis, we discuss fiscal and tax policies to cope with rising prices, and analyze the relationship between monetary activity and inflation from a broader perspective. The impact of money supply on prices is not only manifested in commodity prices, but also in real estate prices, asset prices, etc., in view of this, after analyzing the relationship between money supply and price changes, we focus on exploring the relationship between money supply and real estate market prices and asset prices. At the same time, the influence of pensions, insurance funds, etc. on money supply and asset prices is analyzed, from which a series of useful conclusions are drawn. Finally, from the perspective of macroprudential supervision, how to improve the money supply mechanism to promote financial stability and price stability is analyzed. Based on in-depth discussion and analysis, we have gained new insights in 12 aspects: 1. Systematically analyzed the sustainability of China's economic growth in the next 10-20 years, and believed that China's economic growth will remain at a high level in the process of industrialization and urbanization. 2. It deeply discusses the relationship between urbanization and the transformation of economic development mode, and believes that as far as the whole country is concerned, the transformation of economic development mode refers to the transformation from industrial economy to urban economy. In this process, the upgrading of consumption structure from "eating, wearing, and using" to "living, traveling and learning" has changed to orientation, focusing on increasing consumption-oriented investment, and aiming at achieving comprehensive well-off and people's livelihood projects, and carrying out the transformation of economic development mode. 3. Since the 90s of the 20th century, affected by a series of factors such as productivity improvement brought by high technology, the improvement of monetary policy, the improvement of financial openness, the enhancement of trade integration and the strengthening of international competition, inflation in various countries and regions in the world has shown a downward trend, which has brought a rare opportunity period to China's economic development and also provided experience for China's economic development. 4. Clarify the logical relationship between money, finance and funds. Money is not any physical object, it is an economic function. This economic function is based on credit relations, effectively reflects the comparison relationship between various traded goods (including commodities, services, financial products and other goods entering the trading market) as the mechanism, and the basic function is to mediate, realize and promote transactions. In the modern economy, money is defined by institutional mechanisms, which itself has no value, no value scale and storage function. Finance, in essence, is the sum of the trading processes and these trading relationships based on the acquisition of future returns from these powers on the basis of equity in assets. Funds refer to financial assets with monetary functions. In real life, when people say "money", they usually mean "money". Starting from the relationship between money, finance and capital, monetary policy (and even money supply) and financial supervision should focus on the flow, flow and flow rate of "capital". 5. There are many shortcomings in the traditional standard for dividing the currency level, according to the development of China's economy and finance, the current division of the currency hierarchy should be revised, the specific assumption is: M0 = cash in circulation - RMB cash balance in cross-border circulation M1 = M0 + personal credit card revolving credit limit + banker's acceptance bill balance + demand savings deposit + enterprise can write check demand deposit M2 = M1 + institutional group deposit + rural deposit M3 = M2 + enterprise time deposit + resident RMB time savings deposit + Other deposits (trust deposits, entrusted deposits, margin deposits, extrabudgetary deposits) + foreign currency (RMB equivalent) deposits M4 = M3 + money market fund shares + repurchase agreements of non-bank financial institutions + short-term government bonds held by non-bank enterprises + housing provident fund deposits. 6. The degree to which monetary policy objectives are achieved reflects the relationship between the money supply and economic growth. In the 10 years from 2001 to 2010, in terms of the ultimate goal of monetary policy, economic growth was effectively promoted without inflation caused by excessive money supply. The increase in prices during this period was mainly caused by the temporary shortage of demand for one or more agricultural products. Given that China will be in a tight balance of agricultural products for a long time, temporary shortages of one or several agricultural products will occur, so it is likely that prices will rise every three years or so. From the perspective of the intermediate goal of monetary policy, the difference between the expected growth rate and the actual growth rate of the money supply represented by M2 is smaller than the expected increase and the actual increase of GDP growth rate, which indicates that the intermediate goal of monetary policy has been well achieved. 7. In terms of money supply mechanism, increasing the statutory reserve requirement ratio and issuing central bank bills have no effect of tightening the money supply; Raising the benchmark interest rate on deposits and loans not only has no tightening effect, but also has the effect of expanding loans. These are the main factors that lead to the need for administrative control over the number of new loans. Under China's current system, the use of administrative mechanisms to control new loans is also a major mechanism for regulating the money supply. 8. In China's practice, there is no "currency over-issuance" phenomenon, and the claim that the amount and growth rate of M2 exceed GDP is unscientific. In addition, continuing to use the currency multiplier to measure the amount of money in circulation and the amount of base currency is no longer in line with today's economic practice. In this regard, more detailed analysis is needed in accordance with specific conditions in order to draw conclusions that are consistent with practice. 9. In China, "shadow banking activities" mainly reflect the contradiction between the regulatory system and the development of the banking industry. The shadow banking system is not the main force driving up prices. 10. The impact of commodity price indices on China's price increases is relatively limited and less significant; However, the impact of asset price factors (house prices) on price increases cannot be ignored. 11. Money supply and credit policies have a relatively obvious impact on real estate price trends through the impact on developer behavior, land supply and housing purchase demand. At the same time, it also has a relatively obvious impact on stock market prices and trading volume. 12. Pensions and insurance funds have an important impact on the money supply and are also important factors affecting asset prices, so we should pay attention to the coordination of monetary policy and pension fund and insurance fund policies, strengthen the supervision of pension insurance and insurance funds, and promote the stability of financial asset prices. We have adopted the following three methods in our research: 1. The method of combining theoretical logic with practical logic (including historical logic). Confirm theoretical logic with practical logic, and reveal the internal mechanism of practical logic with theoretical logic. 2. A combination of normative analysis and empirical analysis. Take normative analysis as the orientation of empirical analysis, and empirical analysis as the confirmation of normative analysis. 3. Methods that combine qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Qualitative analysis is used to develop theoretical logic, quantitative analysis is used to develop practical logic, and at the same time, the organic combination of the two is realized. The significance of this research result is threefold: first, it systematically discusses and analyzes the main orientations and main contents of the transformation of China's economic development mode, proves that "housing, transportation and learning" are the focus of consumption structure upgrading, and puts forward that increasing consumption-oriented investment is the key to ensuring the comprehensiveness, coordination and sustainability of China's economic development. This is of positive significance to clarify the direction, intensity and goal of macroeconomic regulation and control. Second, the relationship between China's money supply mechanism and price rise is discussed and analyzed comprehensively and systematically, and the four types of money supply transmission mechanism and their status in China's practice are thoroughly studied, and the difference in interest rate transmission mechanism, the effectiveness of credit transmission mechanism and the importance of asset price transmission mechanism are demonstrated, which is of great significance for improving China's monetary policy and strengthening macro-prudential supervision. In addition, the relationship between China's money supply and price increases from 2001 to 2010 is demonstrated, and it is pointed out that three consecutive price increases are not inflation, and the measures to solve the problem should be based on fiscal policy, which is of great significance for improving the macro-policy control mechanism. Third, the relationship between money supply and asset prices is discussed and analyzed in depth, and it is pointed out that the quantitative changes of money supply directly affect asset prices such as real estate prices and stock market prices. Pensions and insurance funds are a non-negligible part of these money supply, so in the regulation of money supply, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in asset prices and the impact of pension and insurance fund operations on the money supply. Due to the immaturity of various objective conditions and the limitation of the scope of this topic, we have not been able to explore three issues in depth: First, we have not been able to deeply explore and analyze the relationship between money supply and price increases in the context of the marketization of RMB deposit and loan interest rates. Second, the relationship between money supply and price increases under the conditions of capital account opening has not been explored and analyzed in depth, so the exchange rate channels of money supply have not been studied. Third, since the orientation, content, mechanism and policy tools of macroprudential regulation are still an issue that needs to be further explored, this result fails to deeply analyze the relationship between macroprudential regulation and money supply (and thus price increases). These issues need to be deepened and improved in future research. It is worth mentioning that this book was completed at the end of 2011, and the data of the article is roughly as of 2010. However, since it does not prevent the conclusion of this book, we have not made new additions to the data in this book. The chapters are written by He Haifeng (Chapter 1), Wang Guogang (Chapters 2, 7, 10, 11 and 12), Yu Weibin (Chapter 3), Yan Xiaona (Chapter 4), Xuan Xiaoying (Chapter 5), Peng Xingyun (Chapters 6, 8 and 9), Zhou Liping (Chapter 13), Zeng Gang (Chapter 14), Yuan Zengting (Chapter 15), Yang Tao (Chapter 16), Liu Yuhui (Chapter 17), Yin Zhongzhong(Chapter 18), Cao Honghui (Chapter 19), Guo Jinlong (Chapter 20), All-first silver (chapter XXI). Participants in the discussion of the research results of this book (except the authors) include: Yin Jianfeng, Dong Yuping, Cheng Lian, Zhang Yuewen, Hu Zhihao, Xu Yiguo, Huang Guoping, Cai Zhen, and Fei Zhaoqi. Those who contributed materials and assistance to the writing of this book include: Zhao Peide, Liu Geping, Shi Jinping, Luo Ying, Xue Bo, Xie Fang, Zhang Wei, Liu Jianjian, Zhao Juan, and Wang Shuang. The publication of this book has been funded by the "Publishing Fund" of the Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the strong support of the China Social Sciences Press.（AI翻译）