伴随着世界经济的发展和全球化进程的不断加速，国际贸易对一国经济发展的影响也愈发明显。但在当前由对外贸易所引发的环境问题日益引起更多关注的背景下，与传统国际贸易理论强调贸易基础、贸易条件和贸易得益的研究不同，如何更好地分析、理解和优化贸易与环境的关系，就成为当前国际贸易研究领域新的热点。1978年以来，中国经济日新月异的变化与对外开放和国际贸易的飞速发展是紧密相连的，但随之而来的是近年来国际社会对中国大量进口能源和排放二氧化碳的指责。从中国的角度来看，中国进口的能源难道没有用于出口商品的生产吗？中国排放二氧化碳中的一部分难道不应该由消费中国商品的外国消费者来承担吗？中国到底应该为世界能源消费和二氧化碳排放承担多大的责任？有关隐含能与隐含碳的研究正好可以准确地回答这些问题。

与一国一定时期内生产最终产品时所消耗的能源与二氧化碳排放问题的传统研究不同，“隐含”研究的不仅是各个生产过程中的直接消耗和排放，而且重点强调对包含所有中间投入品在内的完整生产阶段的能源消耗和二氧化碳排放问题的研究。有关贸易的“隐含”研究更是将目标聚焦于一国由于对外贸易而产生的隐含能源消耗和隐含二氧化碳排放问题上。贸易隐含能与隐含碳的相互关系好像一枚硬币的两面：一方面，隐含能的研究是隐含碳研究的基础，两者之间紧密相连；另一方面，本国隐含能的节省意味着外部隐含能生产的增加和引发更多的世界隐含碳排放，两者之间又互相对立。为了使对外贸易发展能够同时实现中国经济增长与环境保护的目标，本书尝试将有关中国对外贸易中隐含能与隐含碳问题的研究结合在一起，通过具体测算框架和研究方法的创新，从维护中国国家利益的角度出发，对中国在对外贸易中真实的隐含能与隐含碳水平进行测算，并对其影响因素进行研究。希望通过本书的努力，不仅可以保障中国在国际环境问题谈判与合作过程中的政治利益，而且可以更好地维护中国在对外贸易中的经济利益。作为发展中国家中的一员，使中国在经济发展过程中所必然拥有的、合理的能源消耗和碳排放权得以更好地实现。而且本书在充分研究和测算中国的贸易隐含能和隐含碳的基础上，还为中国各行业在今后对外贸易的发展过程中如何进行具体调整给出了相应的建议。

本书主要包括以下方面的内容：

第一，为中国隐含能的测算建立了一个较为全面的框架。本书在总结已有隐含问题研究框架的基础上，根据测算所需的IO表、贸易数据和能源数据的来源，以及对进口中间产品的处理方法的差异，构建了一个包含有三个层次的中国隐含能测算框架。这个框架中的三个层次具体包括：层次一：在测算进出口时全部使用来自中国的IO表、贸易数据和能源数据，并在测算出口隐含能时，假设中国出口中使用的中间产品全部由本国生产，且进口国技术水平与中国一致。层次二：在测算出口隐含能时，假设中国出口中使用的部分中间产品由本国生产，其余来自进口；具体进口中间产品在中间品投入中所占的比例根据“按固定比例进行分配”假设进行确定。而在测算进口隐含能时，将中国来自世界的进口分为对来自于发达国家的进口隐含能测算使用日本的投入产出表及相关能耗系数替代；对来自其他发展中国家的进口隐含能测算使用中国的投入产出表和相关能耗系数替代。层次三：在测算中国贸易隐含能时，所使用的数据全部来自WIOD公布的相关IO表数据、贸易数据和EA数据库提供能源消耗数据。通过这个包含三个测算层次的框架，基本解决了不同测算方法得到的中国隐含能结果和彼此之间进行比较的问题，特别是对源于国内数据和源于国际数据的比较尤为便利。

第二，改进了中国进口隐含能的测算方法。本书通过对数据的研究发现，以OECD成员国为代表的发达国家在中国进口总额中所占比例近年来呈持续下降的趋势，而来自发展中国家的进口比例则上升到50%以上的水平。据此，本书在测算中国的进口隐含能时，将中国的进口分解为来自发达国家和来自发展中国家两部分，并选择能源使用效率最高的日本作为发达国家的代表，选取中国作为发展中国家的代表。通过这种方法，一方面解决了使用单一替代国或几个替代国不能全面反映中国进口隐含能来源国存在差异的问题，另一方面还可以借此对中国的进口根据不同的来源开展进一步分析，使测算的结果能够在分析中国与发达国家或发展中国家的不同情况时灵活运用。并且还为分析和解决中国与发达国家和发展中国家的隐含碳问题以及其他贸易和环境问题提供了新的思路。

第三，本书从进出口总量、进出口差额和具体行业的角度对隐含能和隐含碳的规模进行了测算，并对不同方法下的结论进行了比较。 层次一的测算虽然由于其假设的不合理之处而导致结果存在明显的“高估”，但意味着如果中国全部由本国自己生产时所需要耗费的隐含能源水平。层次二的测算发现，中国的出口和进口隐含能水平均保持持续增长的趋势，在2013年年末分别达到84471.45万吨标准煤和79570.65万吨标准煤的水平；且最终贸易隐含能的净值为顺差。虽然层次三测算结果的实际作用受到其能源数据时效性的制约，但测算得到的中国出口与进口隐含能的变化趋势与层次二的结果趋于一致，且更为平滑。但层次三测算的2006年以后出口与进口隐含能和隐含碳的结果都高于层次二的结果，说明当学者使用不同来源的数据时就会出现国外学者的结果偏大而国内学者的结果偏小的情况。造成这种情况主要是由于两种方法IO表数据、能源数据和贸易数据的差异造成的，其中起主要作用的是IO表数据的差异。同时，层次三得出的中国贸易隐含能净值也是顺差，发现中国传统优势出口部门如纺织业、制造业都是造成隐含能 “净输出”的主要行业。这种将不同方法的结论进行比较的思路为全面分析中国的贸易隐含能与隐含碳问题提供了新的视角。

第四，在隐含能与隐含碳之间建立起简单、直接的联系。本书研究发现，将中国各出口行业的能源消耗统一用标准煤表示时，其出口隐含碳的大小就是出口隐含能转化为二氧化碳排放量与生产过程二氧化碳排放量的合计。考虑到中国钢铁和水泥与贸易相关的生产过程二氧化碳排放在中国出口隐含碳排放量中仅占3.1%的水平，所以中国的贸易隐含碳水平几乎就是中国贸易隐含能与其二氧化碳排放系数的乘积，隐含碳的水平直接受隐含能水平大小的影响。因此本书在测算贸易隐含碳时，在贸易隐含能二氧化碳排放量的基础上，直接增加钢铁和水泥生产过程二氧化碳排放量就得出了要测算的中国贸易隐含碳的最终结果。通过在隐含能与隐含碳之间建立起这种简单、直接的联系，为只需要简单掌握两者之间关系的研究提供了一种便捷的方法。

第五，使用对数LMDI方法对出口隐含碳的影响因素进行分解。将影响出口隐含碳的因素分解为规模效应、技术效应和结构效应。从规模效应的角度来看，使用两种方法得到的结果在全部行业的规模效应为正值，说明中国对外贸易不断扩大的规模对隐含碳排放的增加有积极的促进作用。其中：其他行业，金属冶炼制品业，化学工业，纺织业，电气、通信、计算机及其他电子设备制造业等以规模效应表示的增长量都超过1亿吨，其中其他工业都是规模效应最大的行业。从技术效应角度看，除层次三中的电子设备制造业外，技术效应对各行业都是负值，说明中国整体生产技术的改进对出口隐含碳的减少发挥了明显的抑制作用。其他行业，采掘和加工业，纺织业，化学工业，金属冶炼制品业，通用、专用设备制造业都是技术效应作用显著的行业，其中，其他行业在出口隐含碳总量减少的过程中发挥了最为明显的作用。从结构效应角度看，对于具体行业则有不同的影响。其中，食品制造业、纺织业、木材和造纸业农业、采掘和加工业、非金属矿物制品业、木材和造纸业、其他行业在两种方法中测得的结果都为负值；但对化工产品和金属冶炼制品业来说情况比较特殊，这两个行业在层次三的结果中是结构效应为负的行业，而在层次二中的结果为正，其余行业在两种方法中的结构效应都统一为正。

第六，本书对中国各行业今后的调整给出了具体的建议。实现能源进口与出口的平衡是今后处理隐含能问题的基本出发点。对进口隐含能而言，既要努力扩大对煤炭、石油、天然气等初级能源的进口，还要扩大对包含较高贸易隐含能的能源密集型商品的进口。同时，对于能源进口而言，还要注意能源安全问题，不仅要适当调整进口能源的地区来源，扩大对西非、北非和中南美洲地区的能源进口；而且要合理优化具体进口能源结构。对出口隐含能而言，对所有行业今后的调整都应该放在如何进一步提高能源使用效率和降低能耗上。对来自发达国家的进口隐含能而言，服务行业、采掘和加工业、化学工业、金属冶炼制品业和其他工业是优先发展行业。对于来自发展中国家的进口隐含能而言，优先发展采掘和加工业、其他行业和其他工业。其中，采掘和加工业的进口应该予以鼓励。对于贸易隐含碳而言，“共同承担责任制”是在兼顾生产者与消费者利益的基础上对中国最佳的选择。对于规模效应最为突出的是其他行业，通用、专用设备制造业，电气、通信、计算机及其他电子设备制造业，建筑业给予重点关注。技术效应对隐含碳总量减排的作用最为明显的行业是采掘业和加工业，其他行业，金属冶炼制品业，化学工业，纺织业，通用、专用设备制造业。继续发挥结构效应对于食品制造业、纺织业、农业、采掘和加工业、非金属矿物制品业、木材和造纸业、其他行业的减排作用。从中国各行业出口隐含碳完全排放系数的变化看，对于仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业、建筑业、金属冶炼制品业、采掘和加工业、其他工业、化学工业、非金属矿物制品业和其他行业来说，要帮助这些行业加快实现完全排放系数下降的目标。

对外贸易是推动经济发展的主要方式之一，如何在这个过程中处理贸易与环境的关系不仅是一个复杂的经济问题，而且还是一个受全世界关注的可持续发展问题，试图把这个问题研究清楚的确是一件非常困难的事情。尽管笔者为此付出了艰辛的努力，并且有所收获，但由于能力有限，错误和不当之处在所难免，敬请专家、同行和读者批评指正，并提出宝贵意见。

在本书出版之际，我衷心感谢西北民族大学对本书出版的资助，感谢中国社会科学出版社以及卢小生先生为本书出版所付出的努力。

西北民族大学 章辉

2016年9月

With the development of the world economy and the continuous acceleration of globalization, the impact of international trade on a country's economic development has become more and more obvious. However, in the context of the increasing attention of environmental issues caused by foreign trade, unlike the traditional international trade theory that emphasizes the basis of trade, terms of trade and trade benefits, how to better analyze, understand and optimize the relationship between trade and environment has become a new hot spot in the field of international trade research. Since 1978, the rapid changes in China's economy have been closely linked to the rapid development of opening up and international trade, but in recent years the international community has accused China of importing a large amount of energy and emitting carbon dioxide. From China's perspective, isn't the energy imported by China used to produce export goods? Shouldn't some of China's CO2 emissions be borne by foreign consumers who consume Chinese goods? How much responsibility should China bear for the world's energy consumption and CO2 emissions? Research on embodied energy versus embodied carbon can accurately answer these questions. Unlike traditional research on energy and CO2 emissions consumed in the production of final products in a country over a given period of time, "implicit" studies not only direct consumption and emissions in individual production processes, but also focuses on energy consumption and CO2 emissions at the complete stage of production, including all intermediate inputs. The "implied" study of trade focuses on a country's embodied energy consumption and embodied CO2 emissions due to foreign trade. The interrelationship between trade embodied energy and embodied carbon is like two sides of the same coin: on the one hand, the study of embodied energy is the basis of embodied carbon research, and the two are closely linked; On the other hand, domestic embodied energy savings mean an increase in external embodied energy production and more of the world's embodied carbon emissions. In order to achieve the goals of China's economic growth and environmental protection at the same time, this book attempts to combine the research on embodied energy and embodied carbon in China's foreign trade, and through the innovation of specific measurement frameworks and research methods, from the perspective of safeguarding China's national interests, the real embodied energy and embodied carbon levels in China's foreign trade are measured, and their influencing factors are studied. It is hoped that through the efforts of this book, China's political interests in the process of negotiation and cooperation on international environmental issues can be better safeguarded, and China's economic interests in foreign trade can be better safeguarded. As a member of the developing countries, China's reasonable energy consumption and carbon emission rights in the process of economic development can be better realized. Moreover, on the basis of fully studying and measuring the embodied energy and embodied carbon of China's trade, this book also gives corresponding suggestions on how to make specific adjustments in the future development of China's various industries in the development of foreign trade. This book mainly includes the following aspects: First, it establishes a more comprehensive framework for the measurement of China's implied energy. On the basis of summarizing the existing research framework on hidden problems, this book constructs a three-level Chinese implied energy measurement framework based on the sources of IO tables, trade data and energy data required for estimation, and the differences in the treatment methods of imported intermediate products. The three levels in this framework specifically include: Level 1: When measuring imports and exports, all IO meters, trade data and energy data from China are used, and when calculating the embodied energy of exports, it is assumed that all intermediate products used in China's exports are produced domestically, and the technological level of the importing country is consistent with China. Level 2: When measuring the embodied energy of exports, assume that some of the intermediate products used in China's exports are produced domestically, and the rest come from imports; The proportion of specific imported intermediate products in intermediate inputs is determined on the basis of the "distribution in a fixed proportion" assumption. When measuring the embodied energy of imports, China's imports from the world are divided into imported implied energy from developed countries, and the input-output table of Japan and the relevant energy consumption coefficient are used instead. For the implicit energy measurement of imports from other developing countries, China's input-output table and related energy consumption coefficients were used instead. Level 3: When measuring China's trade embodied energy, all the data used are from the relevant IO table data, trade data and EA database provided energy consumption data published by WIOD. Through this framework containing three measurement levels, the problem of China's implied energy results obtained by different measurement methods and their comparison with each other is basically solved, especially for the comparison of domestic data and international data. Second, the calculation method of embodied energy imported by China has been improved. Through the study of data, this book finds that the proportion of developed countries represented by OECD members in China's total imports has continued to decline in recent years, while the proportion of imports from developing countries has risen to more than 50%. Accordingly, when measuring the embodied energy of China's imports, this book divides China's imports into two parts: from developed countries and from developing countries, and selects Japan, which has the highest energy efficiency, as the representative of developed countries, and China as the representative of developing countries. Through this method, on the one hand, the problem that the use of a single alternative country or several surrogate countries cannot fully reflect the differences between the source countries of the implied energy of China's imports is solved, and on the other hand, it can be used to further analyze China's imports according to different sources, so that the results of the calculation can be flexibly used when analyzing the different situations between China and developed or developing countries. It also provides new ideas for analyzing and addressing embodied carbon issues and other trade and environment issues between China and developed and developing countries. Third, this book measures the scale of embodied energy and embodied carbon from the perspectives of total import and export volume, import and export balance, and specific industries, and compares the conclusions under different methods. The Level 1 estimate, although significantly "overestimated" due to the irrationality of its assumptions, implies the level of implied energy that would be required if China were to produce all of its own. The calculation of level 2 shows that China's export and import embodied energy levels have maintained a continuous growth trend, reaching the level of 844.7145 million tons of standard coal and 795.7065 million tons of standard coal respectively at the end of 2013, and the net value of implied energy in the final trade is a surplus. Although the actual effect of the measurement results of Level 3 is limited by the timeliness of its energy data, the change trend of embodied energy of China's exports and imports tends to be consistent with the results of Level 2 and is smoother. However, the results of embodied energy and embodied carbon exported and imported after 2006 measured at Level 3 are higher than those of Level 2, indicating that when scholars use data from different sources, the results of foreign scholars will be large and the results of domestic scholars will be small. This situation is mainly caused by the difference between IO table data, energy data and trade data between the two methods, of which the main role is the difference in IO table data. At the same time, the net implied energy value of China's trade obtained by Level 3 is also a surplus, and it is found that China's traditional advantageous export sectors such as textile industry and manufacturing are the main industries that cause the "net export" of implied energy. This idea of comparing the conclusions of different methods provides a new perspective for a comprehensive analysis of China's trade embodied energy and embodied carbon issues. Fourth, establish a simple and direct link between embodied energy and embodied carbon. The study in this book finds that when the energy consumption of China's export industries is expressed uniformly in terms of standard coal, the size of the embodied carbon exported is the sum of the embodied energy converted into carbon dioxide emissions from the export and the carbon dioxide emissions of the production process. Considering that the CO2 emissions of China's steel and cement trade-related production processes account for only 3.1% of the embodied carbon emissions of China's exports, the embodied carbon level of China's trade is almost the product of the embodied energy of China's trade and its CO2 emission coefficient, and the level of embodied carbon is directly affected by the magnitude of the embodied energy level. Therefore, when this book measures the embodied carbon emissions of trade, on the basis of the carbon dioxide emissions embodied in trade, directly increase the carbon dioxide emissions of steel and cement production processes to obtain the final result of China's trade embodied carbon emissions. By establishing this simple, direct link between embodied energy and embodied carbon, it provides a convenient way to study the relationship between the two that only needs to be briefly grasped. Fifth, the logarithmic LMDI method is used to decompose the influencing factors of embodied carbon exported to it. The factors affecting embodied carbon exports are broken down into economies of scale, technology and structure. From the perspective of scale effect, the results obtained by using the two methods have positive scale effect in all industries, indicating that the expanding scale of China's foreign trade has a positive role in promoting the increase of embodied carbon emissions. Among them: other industries, metal smelting products industry, chemical industry, textile industry, electrical, communications, computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry in terms of scale effect growth of more than 100 million tons, of which other industries are the largest scale effect of the industry. From the perspective of technical effect, except for the electronic equipment manufacturing industry in level 3, the technical effect is negative for all industries, indicating that the improvement of China's overall production technology has played a significant inhibitory role in the reduction of embodied carbon exported to China. Other industries, mining and processing industry, textile industry, chemical industry, metal smelting products industry, general and special equipment manufacturing industry are all industries with significant technical effects, among which other industries play the most obvious role in the process of reducing the total embodied carbon in exports. From the perspective of structural effects, there are different effects on specific industries. Among them, food manufacturing, textiles, wood and paper agriculture, mining and processing industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, wood and paper industry, and other industries were measured negative in both methods; However, the situation is more special for the chemical products and metal smelting products industry, these two industries are the industries with negative structural effects in the result of level 3, and the results in level 2 are positive, and the structural effects of the remaining industries are unified in both methods are positive. Sixth, this book gives specific suggestions for the future adjustment of various industries in China. Achieving a balance between energy imports and exports is the basic starting point for dealing with the problem of embodied energy in the future. For imported embodied energy, efforts should be made to expand imports of primary energy sources such as coal, oil, and natural gas, as well as imports of energy-intensive commodities containing high trade embodied energy. At the same time, for energy imports, it is also necessary to pay attention to energy security issues, not only to appropriately adjust the regional sources of imported energy, but also to expand energy imports to West Africa, North Africa and Central and South America; Moreover, it is necessary to reasonably optimize the specific imported energy structure. For export embodied energy, future adjustments to all sectors should focus on how to further improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption. For imported embodied energy from developed countries, services, extractive and processing industries, chemical industries, metal smelting products and other industries are priority sectors. For imported embodied energy from developing countries, priority is given to extractive and processing industries, other industries and other industries. Among them, imports from extractive and processing industries should be encouraged. For trade embodied carbon, the "shared responsibility system" is the best choice for China on the basis of balancing the interests of producers and consumers. For the scale effect is most prominent in other industries, general and special equipment manufacturing, electrical, communications, computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing, construction industry to pay special attention. The industries with the most obvious effect of technical effects on the reduction of total embodied carbon emissions are the extractive and processing industries, other industries, metal smelting products industry, chemical industry, textile industry, general and special equipment manufacturing industry. Continue to exert the role of structural effects in reducing emissions in food manufacturing, textiles, agriculture, extractive and processing industries, non-metallic mineral products, wood and paper industries, and other industries. From the perspective of the changes in the complete emission coefficient of embodied carbon from the exports of various industries in China, it is necessary to help these industries accelerate the goal of reducing the complete emission coefficient for instrumentation and cultural office machinery manufacturing, construction, metal smelting products, mining and processing, other industries, chemical industry, non-metallic mineral products industry and other industries. Foreign trade is one of the main ways to promote economic development, and how to deal with the relationship between trade and environment in this process is not only a complex economic issue, but also a sustainable development issue that attracts worldwide attention. Although the author has made strenuous efforts and gained some gains, due to limited ability, mistakes and improprieties are inevitable, and experts, peers and readers are kindly requested to criticize and correct and give valuable opinions. On the occasion of the publication of this book, I would like to sincerely thank Northwest University for Nationalities for its funding for the publication of this book, and China Social Sciences Press and Mr. Lu Xiaosheng for their efforts in publishing this book. Northwest University for Nationalities Zhang Hui, September 2016（AI翻译）