经济增长主要依靠什么来拉动的问题，既是经济发展方式的问题，也是社会经济发展的指导思想和观念的问题。只有充分发挥消费需求拉动经济增长的原动力作用，才能使广大人民群众更多地分享改革的成果和实惠，才能保证经济和社会的和谐发展和可持续发展。消费是一个国家经济增长的原动力，是公民福利增加的源泉，如何发挥消费对经济的拉动作用已成为学术界研究的热点问题。

20世纪80年代，消费需求在中国经济增长中发挥了重要的作用。中国经济体制改革破除了不利于经济发展的制度和体制的障碍，解放和发展了生产力，也改变了以往片面发展重工业，重视投资，抑制消费的发展方针。曾经巨大的无法得到满足的消费需求，是中国80年代改革成功的重要因素。迅速扩张的消费需求虽然一度对经济发展形成了强大的压力，但也为非公有制企业的产生和发展，以及国有企业的改革，创造了一个相对宽松的市场环境，使企业在没有需求约束的情况下逐步适应市场经济体制，极大地减缓了改革进程中可能出现的波折。

20世纪90年代开始，中国经济增长越来越依赖于投资和出口，经济增长明显具有投资驱动型和出口拉动型的特征。这一现象的出现是由于中国收入分配中劳动者收入所占比重逐渐减少，收入差距进一步扩大，住房、医疗、保险体制的改革加大了消费者对未来支出的预期；居民在基本生存发展的刚性消费需求得到满足的情况下，持币储蓄的动机开始增强；最终消费在中国国内生产总值中的比重不断下降，对经济增长贡献率和拉动作用逐渐减弱。

投资驱动型和出口拉动型经济增长方式具有不可持续性，中国经济增长必须落在消费需求之上，建立消费需求拉动型经济增长机制是中国经济发展的必然要求。短期内，投资和出口对经济增长具有很强的带动作用，扩大投资和出口能够提高就业水平，缓解有效需求不足，促进产出增长。然而，在长期发展中，中国经济增长不可能总是依赖国际市场。在缺乏最终消费需求支持的情况下，产品价值难以实现，投资也将难以为继。

美国“次贷危机”的爆发，宣告了中国从2003年开始的新一轮经济增长的结束。中国宏观经济政策迅速由预防通货膨胀以及经济过热的危险转变为防止经济下行的风险。这充分暴露了出口导向型发展战略的弊端，说明过度依靠出口来带动经济增长是一把“双刃剑”，中国在出口增长进而拉动经济增长的同时，也加大了对国际市场的依赖，增加了经济增长过程中的不确定性风险。

随着消费需求对中国经济增长约束作用的增强，中国消费不足问题逐渐得到重视，充分发挥消费需求对国民经济增长的拉动作用，增强有效供给，推进供给侧改革，成为中国经济进一步发展的重要手段。中国早在“十一五”规划中就指出：“必须保持经济平稳较快发展。要进一步扩大国内需求，调整投资和消费的关系，合理控制投资规模，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。”

中国经济进入新常态阶段，提高最终消费率，促进居民消费结构升级，不仅是中国应对经济衰退的手段，也是中国经济长期发展的必然要求，对消费需求进行宏观调控是需要长期坚持的政策。从调控的时机来看，经济处于增长阶段时，对消费需求进行调控阻力相对较小，提高消费也相对容易。经济衰退阶段，促进消费需求政策的阻力较大，应当以扩张型的财政政策和货币政策为主。政策实施过程中，应当把短期经济复苏和长期经济发展结合起来，加大财政支出中民生部分，提高社会公共消费水平，消除基础设施因素对消费的制约，改善消费环境，逐步提高社会消费水平。

本书对中国居民消费现状和特征进行了实证分析，结合经济学原理，分析了如何扩大消费需求，发挥消费对经济增长的拉动作用，建立消费需求拉动型经济增长机制等问题，具体分析了需求因素、供给因素、体制因素之间相互关系和对建立消费需求拉动型经济增长机制的制约，较为全面地提出建立消费需求拉动型经济增长机制的对策，超越当前单纯以扩大消费促进经济增长的理论研究现状，对拓展中国当前消费理论、经济增长理论，做了有益的尝试。

全书共分六章。第一章描述了中国居民消费特点及变动趋势。以统计数据为基础分析了中国居民消费水平和结构，对城乡消费倾向做出了动态分析，对中外居民消费做了对比分析。

第二章论述了经济新常态阶段中国扩大消费需求的经济学意义。分析了扩大消费需求是中国转变经济发展方式的必然选择。消费对中国产业结构升级、就业问题的解决和推进城镇化建设均可发挥重要作用。

第三章分析提升居民收入水平与扩大消费需求的内在联系。通过人均GDP和人均收入等指标，对购买主体、购买力、消费意愿、实现环境等影响因素做出判断，揭示收入水平与消费需求的内在相关性。

第四章揭示中国供给侧结构性改革对扩大消费需求的重要影响。供给能够带动消费需求上涨是有理论依据的，中国存在有效供给不足的问题，供给侧改革重在以产品质量提升增进消费信心，通过满足高端市场和个性化消费来实现生产扩张。

第五章阐述扩大消费需求的总体思路。强调遵循循环经济规律、关注民生，通过有效供给、增加收入、优化环境、社会保障、城镇化进程等途径实现扩大消费，主张以“三驾马车”更加均衡地拉动经济增长。

第六章给出经济新常态阶段中国扩大消费需求的对策建议。包括培育和扩大新的消费热点、不断优化居民消费软环境、大力发展服务业和新型消费业态、完善公共服务体系和加强社会保障、深化分配制度改革、破除二元经济结构、激活农村消费市场等方面。

作为拉动中国经济增长重要引擎之一的消费经历了曲折的发展历程，了解中国消费的发展趋势和面临的机遇，以期在对提振中国消费的问题上能够看到各级政府制定出具有针对性的政策措施，让消费拉动经济成为现实。

王志文 卢萍

2016年7月11日

The question of what economic growth mainly depends on is not only a question of the mode of economic development, but also a question of the guiding ideology and concept of social and economic development. Only by giving full play to the role of consumer demand as the driving force for economic growth can the broad masses of the people share more of the fruits and benefits of reform and ensure harmonious economic and social development and sustainable development. Consumption is the driving force of a country's economic growth and the source of increased citizens' welfare, and how to give full play to the driving effect of consumption on the economy has become a hot issue in academic research. In the 80s of the 20th century, consumer demand played an important role in China's economic growth. China's economic structural reform has broken down institutional and institutional obstacles that are not conducive to economic development, liberated and developed productive forces, and changed the previous development policy of unilaterally developing heavy industry, attaching importance to investment and curbing consumption. The once huge and unmet consumer demand was an important factor in the success of China's reforms in the 80s. Although the rapidly expanding consumer demand once formed a strong pressure on economic development, it also created a relatively relaxed market environment for the emergence and development of non-public enterprises and the reform of state-owned enterprises, enabling enterprises to gradually adapt to the market economic system without demand constraints, and greatly slowing down the possible twists and turns in the reform process. Since the 90s of the 20th century, China's economic growth has become more and more dependent on investment and exports, and economic growth has obviously the characteristics of investment-driven and export-led. This phenomenon is due to the gradual reduction of the proportion of workers' income in China's income distribution, the further widening of income gap, and the reform of housing, medical care, and insurance systems that have increased consumers' expectations for future spending. Under the condition that the rigid consumption needs of basic survival and development of residents are satisfied, the motivation to hold currency savings begins to increase; The proportion of final consumption in China's GDP is declining, and its contribution to economic growth and its pulling role are gradually weakening. Investment-driven and export-led economic growth is unsustainable, China's economic growth must fall above consumer demand, and the establishment of a consumption-demand-led economic growth mechanism is an inevitable requirement for China's economic development. In the short term, investment and exports have a strong driving effect on economic growth, and expanding investment and exports can raise employment levels, alleviate the shortage of effective demand, and promote output growth. However, in the long run, China's economic growth cannot always rely on the international market. In the absence of final consumer demand support, the value of the product will be difficult to realize and the investment will be unsustainable. The outbreak of the "subprime mortgage crisis" in the United States announced the end of a new round of economic growth in China that began in 2003. China's macroeconomic policy quickly shifted from preventing inflation and the danger of overheating to preventing economic downturn. This fully exposes the drawbacks of export-oriented development strategy, indicating that excessive reliance on exports to drive economic growth is a "double-edged sword", and while China's export growth drives economic growth, it also increases its dependence on the international market and increases the risk of uncertainty in the process of economic growth. With the enhancement of the restraining role of consumer demand on China's economic growth, the problem of insufficient consumption in China has gradually received attention, giving full play to the driving role of consumer demand in national economic growth, enhancing effective supply, and promoting supply-side reform, which has become an important means for the further development of China's economy. As early as the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", China pointed out: "We must maintain stable and rapid economic development." It is necessary to further expand domestic demand, adjust the relationship between investment and consumption, rationally control the scale of investment, and enhance the role of consumption in driving economic growth. "China's economy has entered the new normal stage, improving the final consumption rate and promoting the upgrading of the consumption structure of residents, which is not only China's means to cope with the economic recession, but also an inevitable requirement for China's long-term economic development. From the perspective of the timing of regulation, when the economy is in the growth stage, the resistance to regulating consumer demand is relatively small, and it is relatively easy to increase consumption. In the recession stage, the resistance of policies to promote consumer demand is greater, and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies should be the mainstay. In the process of policy implementation, short-term economic recovery and long-term economic development should be combined, the part of fiscal expenditure for people's livelihood should be increased, the level of social public consumption should be improved, the constraints of infrastructure factors on consumption should be eliminated, the consumption environment should be improved, and the level of social consumption should be gradually increased. This book makes an empirical analysis of the current situation and characteristics of Chinese residents' consumption, combines economic principles, analyzes how to expand consumer demand, give full play to the role of consumption in driving economic growth, establish a consumer demand-driven economic growth mechanism, and other issues, specifically analyzes the interrelationship between demand factors, supply factors and institutional factors and the constraints on the establishment of a consumption demand-driven economic growth mechanism, and puts forward countermeasures for establishing a consumption-demand-driven economic growth mechanism in a more comprehensive way. Beyond the current theoretical research status of simply expanding consumption to promote economic growth, it has made a useful attempt to expand China's current consumption theory and economic growth theory. The book is divided into six chapters. The first chapter describes the consumption characteristics and trends of Chinese residents. Based on statistical data, the consumption level and structure of Chinese residents were analyzed, the dynamic analysis of urban and rural consumption tendencies was made, and the consumption of Chinese and foreign residents was comparatively analyzed. Chapter 2 discusses the economic significance of expanding consumer demand in China during the new normal of the economy. It analyzes that expanding consumer demand is an inevitable choice for China to transform its economic development mode. Consumption can play an important role in China's industrial structure upgrading, employment problem solving and promoting urbanization. Chapter 3 analyzes the intrinsic link between raising household income levels and expanding consumer demand. Through indicators such as per capita GDP and per capita income, the influencing factors such as purchasing entity, purchasing power, consumption willingness, and realization environment are judged, and the intrinsic correlation between income level and consumption demand is revealed. Chapter 4 reveals the important impact of China's supply-side structural reforms on expanding consumer demand. There is a theoretical basis that supply can drive consumer demand up, China has the problem of insufficient effective supply, supply-side reform focuses on improving product quality to enhance consumer confidence, and achieve production expansion by meeting the high-end market and personalized consumption. Chapter 5 explains the general idea of expanding consumer demand. It emphasizes following the law of circular economy, paying attention to people's livelihood, expanding consumption through effective supply, increasing income, optimizing the environment, social security, urbanization and other ways, and advocates using the "troika" to drive economic growth in a more balanced manner. Chapter 6 gives suggestions for countermeasures to expand consumer demand in China in the new normal stage of the economy. It includes cultivating and expanding new consumption hotspots, continuously optimizing the soft environment for residents' consumption, vigorously developing the service industry and new consumption formats, improving the public service system and strengthening social security, deepening the reform of the distribution system, breaking the dual economic structure, and activating the rural consumer market. As one of the important engines of China's economic growth, consumption has experienced a tortuous development process, understand the development trend and opportunities of China's consumption, in order to see that governments at all levels have formulated targeted policies and measures to boost China's consumption, so that consumption-driven economy becomes a reality. Wang Zhiwen Lu Ping, July 11, 2016（AI翻译）