改革开放不到40年，中国经济发生了翻天覆地的变化，名义GDP增长了200多倍，剔除价格因素，实际GDP增长了30多倍。在整个人类历史上，中国经济的增长速度都可谓史无前例，使无数精妙绝伦的增长理论黯然失色。时至2016年，中国已经成为全球第二大经济体，GDP规模接近75万亿人民币，但增速依然位居全球第一，令很多经济学家都叹为观止。

在中国经济增长奇迹中，劳动力市场发生的巨大变革无疑扮演者非常重要的角色。其中，相比当年搞得轰轰烈烈的国企职工市场化改革，中国农业劳动力转移规模更大、持续更久、影响更为深远，然而却没有得到应有的重视和研究。2016年中国农民工总量已经超过2.8亿人，占中国全部就业人口的36.3%，占城镇就业人口的68.1%，简直是一个“无比庞大却又特殊”的群体。在很大程度上可以说，这个群体对于中国经济发展的作用，目前学界只得到了比较肤浅的认识。这还不仅仅是指他们在城市所享受的社会待遇，而是连许多学术研究都在不同程度上假定或认为，他们只是为城市部门产业发展提供了廉价的劳动要素而已。认识上的不充分反映在现实中更是如此，甚至在近年来面对农业劳动力转移连年放缓的现实，很多城市仍不愿意开放这个群体在此城市所应享有的基本市民待遇。无论出于何种考虑，严重低估他们在城市发展中的作用和贡献，肯定是其中的原因之一。

本书旨在阐明，农业劳动力转移在中国经济发展中所起的作用，绝不仅是为城市部门提供了劳动要素而已。农业劳动力向城市持续大规模地转移，不仅改变了中国劳动力市场的根本特征，更对中国的投资、储蓄、技术进步和经济周期波动都产生了深远的影响，在非农产业的快速发展中扮演了重要而特殊的角色。为了说明这一点，本书首先系统梳理了中国经济发展最重要的三个特征事实，涉及中国的投资、储蓄和经济增长，分别将其总结为中国资本回报率上升之谜、中国储蓄率上升之谜和“奥肯定律”中国不适之谜。破解这三大谜题，乃是理解中国经济发展模式的关键。本书通过理论和实证分析，从农业劳动力转移的视角，全面解释了上述三大发展谜题。本书研究的一个具有重要现实意义的推论是，当前农业劳动力转移放缓甚至停滞对中国经济的影响，绝不仅是边际上的，而且是方向性的。无论在国家层面还是城市层面，如果希望未来继续保持较快的经济增长，那么在促进农业劳动力转移方面做出更多努力绝对是明智之举。这可绝不仅是出于公平的考虑，对农民工为城市建设所做贡献给予应有的肯定，更是为了城市自身的发展。

是为序。

刘晓光

2017年1月于人大科研楼

In less than 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has undergone earth-shaking changes, with nominal GDP increasing by more than 200 times, and real GDP increasing by more than 30 times excluding price factors. Throughout human history, China's economy has grown at an unprecedented rate, overshadowing countless sophisticated growth theories. By 2016, China had become the world's second largest economy, with a GDP of nearly 75 trillion yuan, but it still ranked first in the world, surprising many economists. In China's economic growth miracle, the huge changes in the labor market have undoubtedly played a very important role. Among them, compared with the vigorous market-oriented reform of state-owned enterprise employees in those years, China's agricultural labor transfer is larger, longer and more far-reaching, but it has not received due attention and research. In 2016, the total number of migrant workers in China has exceeded 280 million, accounting for 36.3% of China's total employment population and 68.1% of urban employment. To a large extent, it can be said that the role of this group in China's economic development has only been superficially understood by the academic circles. This does not only refer to the social treatment they enjoy in cities, but even many academic studies have assumed or believed, to varying degrees, that they only provide cheap labor factors for the industrial development of the urban sector. This is especially true of the lack of awareness, which is even reluctant to open up the basic citizenship benefits that this group should enjoy in recent years, even in the face of the slowdown in the migration of agricultural labor in recent years. Whatever the reason, a serious underestimation of their role and contribution to urban development is certainly one of the reasons. This book aims to show that the role of agricultural labor transfer in China's economic development is not just about providing labor for the urban sector. The continuous and large-scale transfer of agricultural labor to cities has not only changed the fundamental characteristics of China's labor market, but also has a profound impact on China's investment, savings, technological progress and economic cycle fluctuations, and has played an important and special role in the rapid development of non-agricultural industries. In order to illustrate this point, this book first systematically sorts out the three most important characteristic facts of China's economic development, involving China's investment, savings and economic growth, and summarizes them as the mystery of China's rising return on capital, the mystery of China's rising savings rate, and the mystery of China's discomfort with the "Odin Law". Solving these three mysteries is the key to understanding China's economic development model. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this book comprehensively explains the above three development puzzles from the perspective of agricultural labor transfer. An important practical corollary of this book is that the impact of the current slowdown or even stagnation of agricultural labor migration on China's economy is by no means marginal but also directional. If faster economic growth is to continue at both the national and city levels, it would be wise to do more to facilitate the transfer of agricultural labor. This is not only out of fairness considerations, but also for the contribution of migrant workers to urban construction, but also for the development of the city itself. is the order. Liu Xiaoguang at the NPC Research Building in January 2017（AI翻译）