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提高我国居民消费能力长效机制研究

ISBN:978-7-5161-9936-7

出版日期:2017-02

页数:249

字数:258.0千字

点击量:7644次

定价:66.00元

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基金信息: 国家社会科学基金青年项目(11CJL014)最终研究成果 展开

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From the period of year 1978 to 2011,it is extraordinary that the Chinese economy has grown so rapidly and last for such a long time. The Chinese economy has welcomed its inflection point and turned into a period of a relatively high growth speed in 2012. The Government Work Report in 2014 puts forward that the growth target of Gross Domestic Product will be approximately 7.5% in 2014. At the end of the extremely high growth period,the global contagion of American Finance and economic crisis because of the American subprime mortgage crisis in the second half of the 2007 has triggered the worldwide spread of financial crisis,so did China. This crisis has influenced our country gradually through its spreading from seminary to ambitus and had a severe negative impact on our national economy. The total export-import volume in our country is 179921.5 a hundred million yuan in 2008,which accounted 57.3% of the GDP at that very year and declined 5.4% compared with the last year. Judging from the situation of our country at the fourth quarter of 2008,the import and export situation of our country in 2009 will be more serious. Consumption,investment and exports are “three carriages” which drive the growth of the national economy. In order to achieve the sustained growth of our national economy under the trend of a severe decline in exports,our country has to rely only mainly on measures of consumption and investment to expand domestic demand. In 2009,while domestic demand has expanded in our country,the demand structure of our country still exist serious problems,that is,the investment rate is high and the consumption rate and the household consumption are low. In October 2010,the seventeen session of the Fifth Plenary Session held by the party comprehensively considered the existence of China’s national economic and social development problems,conditions and future trends,proposed to adhere to the strategy of expanding domestic demand,to maintain stable and rapid economic development,to establish a long-term mechanism to expand consumer demand,to accelerate the new formation of economic growth situation through consumption,investment and exports. Governments of all levels have adopted a lot of policies and measures to implement the spirit of the seventeen plenary session,but there is still a considerable gap from the goal of “the new formation of economic growth situation through consumption,investment,exports”. The 2014 world economic recovery is unstable and uncertain. Under the profound adjustment of the global economic pattern,the international competition is more intense. The economic development of China is under the painful period of structural adjustment and also the growth rate of the shifting period,and the economic downward pressure is still larger. In 2013,China’s per capita GDP is about 6767 dollars. In accordance with the relevant theory about the developing stages of development economics,such as the development theory of Clark,Chenery,Kuznets,it showed that if GDP per capita exceeds 3000 dollars due to the rapid expansion of consumption and the rapid increase of the service sector,“the consumers dominate-services trigger” will gradually become a new growth engine and the proportion of the third industry will be more than 50%,becoming the leading industry. In 2012,China’s investment rate is still as high as 47.8% which reveals that our country is still a investment dominant country. Consumers demand is very weak and need to be improved urgently. It can be seen from the above analysis that China’s national economy is in a critical period of transformation from investment-leading to consumption-leading from now in the future. During this critical period,in order to improve our country’s demand structure and achieve the sustainable and healthy development of our national economy,it is significant to construct long-term mechanism for increasing our country resident’s consumption abilities,vigorously improve the consumption rate in China,thus improving our country’s demand structure. If the transition is not successful in this crucial period,China is very likely to fall into the so-called “middle income trap” and inextricably bogged down in. In July 30,2014,the Political Bureau of the central economic work conference which was held to deploy the work of the second half of the year,put forward that we need to make efforts to expand consumption demand,exert the basic role of consumption,conform to the escalation of consumption structure,complete the consumption policy and improve the consumption environment,thus releasing the consumption potential constantly. Therefore,the research of the construction of Chinese characteristics consumption theory,the goal of expanding consumption and the impact on macroeconomic stability are undoubtedly of great theoretical significance and practical value.

This study use the methods of mathematical economic model,econometric model,literature survey and comparative analysis and combination of the normative research and empirical research. In the construction of national conditions which are suitable for Chinese “Demand-Side—Supply-Side Consumption Theory Model” basis,this study combines the characteristics and problems of the Chinese residents’ consumption and makes a reference on the experiences of the maintaining of a high rate of residents’ consumption of America and Japan. What’s more,it put forward some proposals and suggestions to expand the consumption of our country from the mechanism and path level based on the conclusions of the expanding residents’ consumption research on relevant paths. Finally,simulations were carried out to study the effect of expansion of Chinese residents’ consumption on macroeconomic stability.This study is well developed followed the “consumption rate standard research-put forward consumption problems-core concepts definition and theoretical analysis-construct consumption theory model-the economic test-draw lessons from foreign experience-some mechanism special research-put forward long-term mechanism”basic way of thinking. The study is devoted to research the mechanism and path to expand China’s household consumption and explore the influences of expanding consumption on macroeconomic stability.

First of all,based on the analysis about the consumption rate of Chenery,relying on related data which come from PWT 7.1 and include 32 countries of OECD and 13 Asian countries and regions,ranging from 1951-2010 under PPP(Purchasing power parity),using the unbalanced panel data and relevant model,study the influence factors of residents’ consumption and government consumption around the world. The thesis pointed out that in the 5 period from 1981- 2010,our country’s average consumption rate and average resident consumption rate is a little low than acceptable value in most time.At present,our country is in the key period of transition from investment-led economy to consumption-led economy,this profound economic transformation urgently required to establish a long-term mechanism to improve residents’ consumption ability.Its premise is to analysis the resident consumption characteristics and existing problems since the Reform and Opening up.Our country’s consumption rate is low in a long-term and exsits problems:The national per capita income of urban and rural residents’ proportion in GDP is low,the per capita income gap between urban and rural areas showed a trend of expansion;Residents’ consumption proportion is slowly declining and government’s consumption is rising;The national per capita annual consumer spending growth is lower than the average annual GDP growth and annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth,but higher than the national average annual growth of per capita income;The gap between rural residents’ consumption expenditure and urban residents consumption expenditure is large,average annual rural consumer spending growth rate is equal to urban.

Secondly,the core concepts of this topic such as “resident’s consumption ability”,“long-term mechanism” are defined,and from the perspective of general theoretical analysis,the mechanism of resident’s consumption ability is divided into four mechanism,such as pushing mechanism,pulling mechanism,restriction mechanism and adjustment mechanism.If mechanism will be long-term mechanism,it need institution’s security and need to supervise institution’s operation.based on the actual consumption in our country,the study sums up several characteristics of resident’s consumption in our country,these characteristics are the premise that we build the consumption function. Based on the option theory,along path from micro consumption function to the macro consumption function,We borrow from China’s consumption function buildly Yu Yongding and Li jun and try to construct our country resident’s micro consumption function and macro consumption function. We build the micro and macro consumption function in our country which interprets consumption from the aspects of the combination of consumption demand-side and supply-side,and we take into account the consumption effect of enterprise’s productivity,introduce the heterogeneity of workers,to consider the effect of income distribution on consumption,thus our function is deeper and more comprehensive. The distinction is not just a simple problems to increase or decrease some parameters,but shows the different ideas of building,and use a new idea to understand and explain the driving factors of resident’s consumption,so this is the significant difference. In some sense,Chinese “Demand-Side— Supply-Side Consumption Theory”built by us is significant to enrich our country’s consumption theory. Then,we testify the macro consumption function,the result is fit for our expectations,it also shows the correctness of the theoretical model constructed by us. The current labor income share,the relative total factor productivity of the current period,the current consumer price index,the next stage consumer price index and the pulling factor are all positive influence,and the Gini coefficient of the current period,the current residents savings deposit rate,the current financial constraints are negative impact on the current resident’s consumption. Again,we analyze and summary the 1929-2010 period of United States and Japanese “high economic growth period”(1956-1973) maintaining high consumption experience. Finding the mechanism for maintaining high consumption ability of United States and Japan is:Modern consumption concept,the national economy fast growth,perfect social security system,relatively average income distribution and income growth stability,plenty of consumer credit,more developed services and so on.

Moreover,we have a special research on how to improve our country’s labor income share,how to improve our country’s total factor productivity and how to adjust the consumer price index.according to theoretical analysis of resident’s consumption ability’s long-term mechanism,the“Demand-Side—Supply-Side Consumption Theory Model”constructed by us and empirical results,combined with our country’s consumption actual situation and the United States,Japan’s experiences to expand consumption,we believe that constructing the long-term mechanism to expand our country’s consumption abilities should include:First,improve the subjective conditions of resident’s acquiring income;Second,enhance the pushing mechanism;Third,enlarge the pulling mechanism;Fourth,reduce the restriction mechanism;Fifth,positively take advantage of adjustment mechanism;Sixth,strengthen institution protection and supervise institution operation,and so on.

Key Words:Residents’ consumption Consumption theory Consumption ability Long-term mechanism

From the period of year 1978 to 2011,it is extraordinary that the Chinese economy has grown so rapidly and last for such a long time. The Chinese economy has welcomed its inflection point and turned into a period of a relatively high growth speed in 2012. The Government Work Report in 2014 puts forward that the growth target of Gross Domestic Product will be approximately 7.5% in 2014. At the end of the extremely high growth period,the global contagion of American Finance and economic crisis because of the American subprime mortgage crisis in the second half of the 2007 has triggered the worldwide spread of financial crisis,so did China. This crisis has influenced our country gradually through its spreading from seminary to ambitus and had a severe negative impact on our national economy. The total export-import volume in our country is 179921.5 a hundred million yuan in 2008,which accounted 57.3% of the GDP at that very year and declined 5.4% compared with the last year. Judging from the situation of our country at the fourth quarter of 2008,the import and export situation of our country in 2009 will be more serious. Consumption,investment and exports are “three carriages” which drive the growth of the national economy. In order to achieve the sustained growth of our national economy under the trend of a severe decline in exports,our country has to rely only mainly on measures of consumption and investment to expand domestic demand. In 2009,while domestic demand has expanded in our country,the demand structure of our country still exist serious problems,that is,the investment rate is high and the consumption rate and the household consumption are low. In October 2010,the seventeen session of the Fifth Plenary Session held by the party comprehensively considered the existence of China’s national economic and social development problems, conditions and future trends,proposed to adhere to the strategy of expanding domestic demand,to maintain stable and rapid economic development,to establish a long-term mechanism to expand consumer demand,to accelerate the new formation of economic growth situation through consumption,investment and exports. Governments of all levels have adopted a lot of policies and measures to implement the spirit of the seventeen plenary session,but there is still a considerable gap from the goal of “the new formation of economic growth situation through consumption,investment,exports”. The 2014 world economic recovery is unstable and uncertain. Under the profound adjustment of the global economic pattern,the international competition is more intense. The economic development of China is under the painful period of structural adjustment and also the growth rate of the shifting period,and the economic downward pressure is still larger. In 2013,China’s per capita GDP is about 6767 dollars. In accordance with the relevant theory about the developing stages of development economics,such as the development theory of Clark,Chenery,Kuznets,it showed that if GDP per capita exceeds 3000 dollars due to the rapid expansion of consumption and the rapid increase of the service sector,“the consumers dominate-services trigger” will gradually become a new growth engine and the proportion of the third industry will be more than 50%,becoming the leading industry. In 2012,China’s investment rate is still as high as 47.8% which reveals that our country is still a investment dominant country. Consumers demand is very weak and need to be improved urgently. It can be seen from the above analysis that China’s national economy is in a critical period of transformation from investment-leading to consumption-leading from now in the future. During this critical period,in order to improve our country’s demand structure and achieve the sustainable and healthy development of our national economy,it is significant to construct long-term mechanism for increasing our country resident’s consumption abilities,vigorously improve the consumption rate in China,thus improving our country’s demand structure. If the transition is not successful in this crucial period,China is very likely to fall into the so-called “middle income trap” and inextricably bogged down in. In July 30,2014,the Political Bureau of the central economic work conference which was held to deploy the work of the second half of the year,put forward that we need to make efforts to expand consumption demand,exert the basic role of consumption,conform to the escalation of consumption structure,complete the consumption policy and improve the consumption environment,thus releasing the consumption potential constantly. Therefore,the research of the construction of Chinese characteristics consumption theory,the goal of expanding consumption and the impact on macroeconomic stability are undoubtedly of great theoretical significance and practical value. This study use the methods of mathematical economic model,econometric model,literature survey and comparative analysis and combination of the normative research and empirical research. In the construction of national conditions which are suitable for Chinese “Demand-Side—Supply-Side Consumption Theory Model” basis,this study combines the characteristics and problems of the Chinese residents’ consumption and makes a reference on the experiences of the maintaining of a high rate of residents’ consumption of America and Japan. What’s more,it put forward some proposals and suggestions to expand the consumption of our country from the mechanism and path level based on the conclusions of the expanding residents’ consumption research on relevant paths. Finally,simulations were carried out to study the effect of expansion of Chinese residents’ consumption on macroeconomic stability. This study is well developed followed the “consumption rate standard research-put forward consumption problems-core concepts definition and theoretical analysis-construct consumption theory model-the economic test-draw lessons from foreign experience-some mechanism special research-put forward long-term mechanism”basic way of thinking. The study is devoted to research the mechanism and path to expand China’s household consumption and explore the influences of expanding consumption on macroeconomic stability. First of all,based on the analysis about the consumption rate of Chenery,relying on related data which come from PWT 7.1 and include 32 countries of OECD and 13 Asian countries and regions,ranging from 1951-2010 under PPP(Purchasing power parity),using the unbalanced panel data and relevant model,study the influence factors of residents’ consumption and government consumption around the world. The thesis pointed out that in the 5 period from 1981- 2010,our country’s average consumption rate and average resident consumption rate is a little low than acceptable value in most time. At present,our country is in the key period of transition from investment-led economy to consumption-led economy,this profound economic transformation urgently required to establish a long-term mechanism to improve residents’ consumption ability. Its premise is to analysis the resident consumption characteristics and existing problems since the Reform and Opening up. Our country’s consumption rate is low in a long-term and exsits problems:The national per capita income of urban and rural residents’ proportion in GDP is low,the per capita income gap between urban and rural areas showed a trend of expansion; Residents’ consumption proportion is slowly declining and government’s consumption is rising; The national per capita annual consumer spending growth is lower than the average annual GDP growth and annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth,but higher than the national average annual growth of per capita income; The gap between rural residents’ consumption expenditure and urban residents consumption expenditure is large,average annual rural consumer spending growth rate is equal to urban. Secondly,the core concepts of this topic such as “resident’s consumption ability”,“long-term mechanism” are defined,and from the perspective of general theoretical analysis,the mechanism of resident’s consumption ability is divided into four mechanism,such as pushing mechanism,pulling mechanism,restriction mechanism and adjustment mechanism. If mechanism will be long-term mechanism,it need institution’s security and need to supervise institution’s operation.based on the actual consumption in our country,the study sums up several characteristics of resident’s consumption in our country,these characteristics are the premise that we build the consumption function. Based on the option theory,along path from micro consumption function to the macro consumption function,We borrow from China’s consumption function buildly Yu Yongding and Li jun and try to construct our country resident’s micro consumption function and macro consumption function. We build the micro and macro consumption function in our country which interprets consumption from the aspects of the combination of consumption demand-side and supply-side,and we take into account the consumption effect of enterprise’s productivity,introduce the heterogeneity of workers,to consider the effect of income distribution on consumption,thus our function is deeper and more comprehensive. The distinction is not just a simple problems to increase or decrease some parameters,but shows the different ideas of building,and use a new idea to understand and explain the driving factors of resident’s consumption,so this is the significant difference. In some sense,Chinese “Demand-Side— Supply-Side Consumption Theory”built by us is significant to enrich our country’s consumption theory. Then,we testify the macro consumption function,the result is fit for our expectations,it also shows the correctness of the theoretical model constructed by us. The current labor income share,the relative total factor productivity of the current period,the current consumer price index,the next stage consumer price index and the pulling factor are all positive influence,and the Gini coefficient of the current period,the current residents savings deposit rate,the current financial constraints are negative impact on the current resident’s consumption. Again,we analyze and summary the 1929-2010 period of United States and Japanese “high economic growth period”(1956-1973) maintaining high consumption experience. Finding the mechanism for maintaining high consumption ability of United States and Japan is:Modern consumption concept,the national economy fast growth,perfect social security system, relatively average income distribution and income growth stability,plenty of consumer credit,more developed services and so on. Moreover,we have a special research on how to improve our country’s labor income share,how to improve our country’s total factor productivity and how to adjust the consumer price index.according to theoretical analysis of resident’s consumption ability’s long-term mechanism,the“Demand-Side—Supply-Side Consumption Theory Model”constructed by us and empirical results,combined with our country’s consumption actual situation and the United States,Japan’s experiences to expand consumption,we believe that constructing the long-term mechanism to expand our country’s consumption abilities should include:First,improve the subjective conditions of resident’s acquiring income; Second,enhance the pushing mechanism; Third,enlarge the pulling mechanism; Fourth,reduce the restriction mechanism; Fifth,positively take advantage of adjustment mechanism; Sixth,strengthen institution protection and supervise institution operation,and so on. Key Words:Residents’ consumption Consumption theory Consumption ability Long-term mechanism(AI翻译)

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GB/T 7714-2015 格式引文
吴振球.提高我国居民消费能力长效机制研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2017
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MLA 格式引文
吴振球.提高我国居民消费能力长效机制研究.北京,中国社会科学出版社:2017E-book.
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吴振球(2017).提高我国居民消费能力长效机制研究.北京:中国社会科学出版社
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