据联合国粮农组织（FAO）2015年公布的数据，目前，世界仍有7.95亿饥饿人口，占世界人口的10.9%。其中，中国饥饿人口1.34亿，占中国人口的9.8%。因此，不论世界还是中国，粮食安全远未实现，有必要对粮食安全问题进行研究，以探寻实现粮食安全的路径。

研究粮食安全问题，首先要确定粮食安全的标准。根据联合国粮农组织对粮食安全的解释，粮食安全是指食用粮食的安全，包括数量安全、质量安全和“获取”安全。本书在假定粮食质量安全的前提下，研究粮食的数量安全和获取安全。

本书所运用的数据主要来源于中国国家统计局、其他国内组织和国际组织。中国人口、粮食产量、粮食播种面积、农业用水量等数据来源于国家统计局年度数据；中国居民膳食营养素推荐摄入量来源于中国营养学会编著的《中国居民膳食营养素参考摄入量》；各种粮食营养成分数据来源于中国疾病预防控制中心营养与食品安全所编著的《中国食物成分表》。中国各种用途粮食数量及各种国际数据来源于联合国粮农组织数据库（FAOSTAT）、世界银行数据库（Data/The World Bank）及标准化世界收入不平等数据库（SWIID）。

本书综合运用规范分析方法和实证分析方法开展研究。具体运用加权算术平均数法、多元线性回归法、灰色GM预测模型、BP神经网络模型、Logistic阻滞增长模型、指数平滑法等方法开展研究。

本书共分九章。第一章是导论，第二章至第八章是研究的主体部分，第九章是研究结论与展望。本书研究沿着这样的思路展开：提出问题—建立标准—依据标准进行评价—分析原因—选择模式与结构—政策建议。各章主要研究内容如下：

第一章，导论。简要地介绍研究问题提出的背景及研究的意义；重点对国内相关研究成果进行综述；界定本书研究中的“粮食”和“粮食安全”概念；介绍研究所依据的数据来源及主要研究方法；总结本书研究的创新点和不足之处。

第二章，基于中国居民膳食营养素推荐摄入量的食用粮食需要量。这是本书最核心的一章。以中国居民膳食营养素推荐摄入量为依据，确定符合营养标准的人均口粮和饲料用粮需要量，建立食用粮食安全的数量标准。

第三章，中国粮食数量安全状况评价。中国尚有1亿多饥饿人口，足以表明中国粮食“获取”的不安全。所以，本章仅对中国粮食数量安全状况进行评价，包括对粮食供给数量和供给结构的评价。

第四章，中国食物安全状况评价与分析。联合国粮农组织的“food security”指的不是粮食安全而是食物安全。粮食安全与食物安全密不可分。因此，本书对中国食物安全状况进行评价，并以四个有代表性的国家为例，分析影响食物安全的主要因素，为研究中国粮食安全问题提供参考。

第五章，中国粮食数量安全状况预测。为了解中国未来粮食数量安全状况，对中国未来人均粮食产量进行预测，并依据对世界人均粮食产量和粮食价格预测的结果，对中国未来粮食进口形势进行预测。在此基础上，对中国未来粮食数量安全状况进行预测。

第六章，中国粮食安全影响因素。从粮食生产、流通和消费三大环节入手，分析影响中国粮食安全的主要因素。

第七章，基于主权的中国粮食供给模式及来源结构选择。近年来，中国粮食净进口量持续增加，粮食自给率持续下降。那么，中国进口多少粮食适度、粮食自给率应保持怎样的水平？为解决这一问题，本章首先对粮食及粮食问题的性质进行分析，因为这决定了中国选择粮食供给模式和来源结构的原则。其次，介绍形成于20世纪90年代中期的“食物主权”运动及其思想。在此基础上，分析中国应选择何种粮食供给模式和来源结构，界定中国经济的粮食自给率底线和安全的粮食自给率底线。

第八章，政府干预以促进实现粮食安全。粮食及粮食问题的政治性质决定，政府必须干预粮食经济活动以促进实现粮食安全。本章从粮食生产、流通和消费三个方面提出促进实现粮食安全的政策建议。

第九章，研究结论与展望。总结本书研究的主要结论并展望未来粮食安全问题研究的主要方向。未来，在粮食安全问题上，对内应着重研究粮食安全的制度保障；对外应着重研究如何制定和利用国际贸易规则维护本国粮食安全。由于粮食安全与食物安全密切相关，未来还应该开展对食物安全问题的深入研究。

依据中国居民膳食营养素推荐摄入量，人均食用粮食313公斤能够满足人体营养需要，是中国粮食安全的数量标准。中国当前粮食数量安全但“获取”不安全。由于粮食生产造成巨大的财政负担和资源环境破坏，当前的粮食数量安全也不可持续。中国需要建立“确保资源安全前提下的粮食安全”观，寻求新的粮食安全路径。

关键词：粮食安全；膳食营养；粮食自给率；食物安全

According to data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in 2015, there are still 795 million hungry people in the world, accounting for 10.9% of the world's population. Among them, 134 million people in China are hungry, accounting for 9.8% of the Chinese. Therefore, food security is far from being achieved in both the world and China, and it is necessary to study food security issues in order to explore ways to achieve food security. To study food security, it is first necessary to determine the criteria for food security. According to FAO's interpretation of food security, food security refers to the safety of food eaten, including quantity security, quality safety and "access" security. This book examines the quantity security and access to food while assuming food quality and safety. The data used in this book are mainly derived from the National Bureau of Statistics of China and other domestic and international organizations. Data such as Chinese, grain output, grain sown area, and agricultural water consumption are derived from the annual data of the National Bureau of Statistics; The recommended dietary intake of Chinese residents comes from the "Reference Intake of Dietary Nutrients for Chinese Residents" compiled by the Chinese Nutrition Society; The nutrient content data of various foods are derived from the "Chinese Food Composition List" compiled by the Institute of Nutrition and Food Safety of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. China's food quantity and various international data for various purposes are obtained from the FAO database, the World Bank database (Data/The World Bank) and the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID). This book uses a combination of normative and empirical analysis methods to conduct research. Specifically, the weighted arithmetic mean method, multiple linear regression method, gray GM prediction model, BP neural network model, Logistic block growth model, exponential smoothing method and other methods are used to carry out research. The book is divided into nine chapters. Chapter 1 is an introduction, Chapters 2 to 8 are the main body of the study, and Chapter 9 is the conclusion and outlook. The research in this book is carried out along the following lines: asking questions - establishing criteria - evaluating according to standards - analyzing reasons - selecting patterns and structures - policy recommendations. The main research contents of each chapter are as follows: Chapter 1, Introduction. Briefly introduce the background of the research question and the significance of the research; Focus on the review of relevant domestic research results; define the concepts of "food" and "food security" as studied in this book; Introduce the data sources and main research methods on which the study is based; Summarize the innovations and shortcomings of the research in this book. Chapter 2 is the dietary nutrient requirements of Chinese residents. This is the most central chapter of the book. Based on the recommended dietary intake of Chinese residents, determine the per capita food ration and feed grain requirements that meet the nutritional standards, and establish quantitative standards for food security. Chapter III, Evaluation of China's Grain Quantity Security. There are still more than 100 million hungry people in China, which is enough to show the insecurity of China's food "access". Therefore, this chapter only evaluates the security of China's grain quantity, including the evaluation of the quantity and structure of grain supply. Chapter 4, Evaluation and Analysis of China's Food Safety Situation. FAO's "food security" refers not to food security but to food security. Food security and food security are inextricably linked. Therefore, this book evaluates the food security situation in China and takes four representative countries as examples to analyze the main factors affecting food security, so as to provide reference for studying China's food security issues. Chapter 5, China's grain quantity security forecast. In order to understand China's future grain quantity security, China's future per capita grain production is forecasted, and China's future grain import situation is predicted based on the results of the world's per capita grain production and grain price forecast. On this basis, the future grain quantity security situation in China is predicted. Chapter 6: Factors Influencing China's Food Security. Starting from the three major links of grain production, circulation and consumption, the main factors affecting China's food security are analyzed. Chapter 7: China's Grain Supply Model and Source Structure Selection Based on Sovereignty. In recent years, China's net grain imports have continued to increase, and its self-sufficiency rate has continued to decline. So, how much grain does China import moderately, and what level of food self-sufficiency should it maintain? To address this problem, this chapter begins with an analysis of food and the nature of the food problem, which determines China's principles for choosing food supply patterns and source structures. Secondly, it introduces the "food sovereignty" movement and its ideas that was formed in the mid-90s of the 20th century. On this basis, this paper analyzes which food supply mode and source structure China should choose, and defines the bottom line of China's economy's food self-sufficiency rate and safe food self-sufficiency rate. Chapter VIII: Government Intervention to Promote Food Security. The political nature of food and food problems dictates that Governments must intervene in food economic activities to promote food security. This chapter provides policy recommendations to promote food security from three aspects: food production, circulation and consumption. Chapter 9, Research Conclusions and Prospects. Summarize the main conclusions of the research in this book and look forward to the main directions of future research on food security. In the future, on the issue of food security, we should focus on the institutional guarantee of food security internally; Externally, we should focus on how to formulate and use international trade rules to safeguard domestic food security. Since food security and food security are closely linked, further research on food security should be carried out in the future. According to the recommended dietary intake of Chinese residents, 313 kg of food per capita can meet the nutritional needs of the human body, which is the quantitative standard of China's food security. China's current food quantity is safe, but "access" is insecure. Current food security is also unsustainable due to the huge financial burden and environmental damage caused by food production. China needs to establish a concept of "food security under the premise of ensuring resource security" and seek a new path for food security. Keywords: food security; dietary nutrition; food self-sufficiency rate; Food safety（AI翻译）