中国是世界上劳动力资源最为丰富的国家。如何优化配置劳动力资源始终是经济建设的基本问题。改革开放以来,中国城乡劳动力市场一直是非均衡的。这种非均衡的资源配置,不但影响了劳动力资源配置绩效,而且影响了城乡统筹发展、社会和谐稳定。因此,如何实现城乡劳动力市场均衡,提高城乡劳动力资源配置绩效,实现城乡协调发展,促进社会和谐、稳定、公平和正义,成为当前需要迫切解决的现实问题。本书依据非均衡理论,结合中国具体国情,综合运用历史分析、比较分析、博弈论、计量模型分析等方法,分阶段研究了城乡劳动力市场非均衡的特征、原因、机制、绩效,并预测了城乡劳动力市场非均衡的演进趋势,最后,提出促进中国城乡劳动力市场均衡发展的相关政策。中国城乡劳动力市场非均衡形成的特征主要包括:国家对城乡劳动力资源采取不同的配置方式、城乡劳动力供给和需求不匹配、城乡劳动力工资存在差距、实行城乡不同的社会保障制度、城乡劳动力市场非均衡不稳定。中国城乡劳动力市场非均衡形成的原因:重工业优先发展战略的遗存和后续影响,在一定程度上造成了中国城乡劳动力市场非均衡;城镇对农村劳动力进入城镇就业的排斥,在一定程度上影响了农村劳动力进入城镇就业;劳动力结构的转变与产业结构的转换不同步,也是造成城乡劳动力市场非均衡的原因。通过两人对称博弈分析农村富余劳动力的就业状况,可以发现,劳动力转移成功的示范作用,带回来的信息及他们的介绍,对没有转移的劳动力作出转移决策会产生重要影响。家庭劳动力供给行为是基于家庭利益最大化作出的理性选择。非国有单位的资源配置行为主要是通过非国有单位与基层政府的博弈过程,使非国有单位遵守劳动力市场制度。国有单位资源配置行为主要是通过国家(包括地方政府)与国有单位的委托—代理来实现的。政府的劳动力资源配置行为就是在城镇和农村双方争夺就业岗位所得利益一定的情况下,尽量减少冲突成本;在城镇和农村双方冲突成本一定的情况下,尽量减少城镇和农村双方争夺就业岗位而得到的利益。城乡劳动力市场非均衡形成阶段的资源配置效率比城乡劳动力非市场均衡阶段要高,表现为农村富余劳动力大规模向城镇和农村非农产业转移,提高了劳动生产率。从公平性来看,在城乡劳动力市场非均衡形成阶段的社会补偿与城乡劳动力非市场阶段相比要少得多。在中国城乡劳动力市场非均衡发展阶段,城乡劳动力资源原则上采取相同的配置方式;城乡劳动力供给大于需求;城乡劳动力工资虽然存在差距,但是,开始“城市支持农村,工业反哺农业”;城乡社会保障制度差别依然较大;城乡劳动力市场非均衡程度仍在扩大。城乡劳动力市场的非均衡主要体现在城乡劳动力供求数量和价格方面。受资料所限,本书分别以农村劳动力的非农化程度和城乡劳动力的收入作替代。研究表明,对农村劳动力非农化程度产生影响的各因素按影响力大小排列前五位的是:是否有技术特长、是否接受过职业培训、劳动力年龄、家庭人均耕地面积、劳动力家庭身份。对农村劳动力收入影响最大的微观因素(前五位)分别是:务工时间、受教育年限、就业地点类型、性别和是否有技术特长。对城镇劳动力收入影响最大的微观因素(前五位)分别是:受教育年限、性别、就业地点类型、就业区域和务工时间。城乡劳动力收入微观影响因素的差异主要体现在是否有技术特长、务工时间、婚姻状况、就业行业等方面。个人因素、家庭因素和人力资本因素直接影响农村劳动力就业状况;个人因素和家庭因素还分别通过人力资本因素间接影响农村劳动力就业状况;提高个人因素和家庭因素向人力资本因素的转移率,有助于提高农村劳动力非农化程度、增加农村劳动力收入和就业稳定性;就业状况影响因子存在内在关联性。城乡劳动力市场非均衡发展阶段的资源配置效率要高于城乡劳动力市场非均衡形成阶段,表现为农村富余劳动力继续向城镇和农村非农产业转移,提高了劳动力生产率。从公平性来看,城乡劳动力市场非均衡发展阶段也较形成阶段公平,表现为农村劳动力和农村组织、城镇劳动力和用人单位都能获得合理收益,并且社会补偿也比市场非均衡形成阶段要少得多。城乡劳动力市场非均衡收敛阶段的主要研究结论如下:农业劳动力比重下降的幅度超过农业产值比重下降的幅度;农业劳动力所占的比重仍然较大;农业劳动力不再大规模地向非农业单向流动,而是变为双向或多向的流动;城乡劳动力工资(收入)差距总体上开始出现收敛;造成城乡劳动力市场非均衡的制度因素已经取消;城乡之间最主要的差别并不是收入差距,而可能是居住环境和生活方式的差别。城乡劳动力市场非均衡收敛的原因是:农业劳动力比重减少幅度开始超过了农业产值比重减少的幅度;农业劳动力价格和非农产业的劳动力价格差距开始缩小;城乡统一的社会保障体系基本建立;城乡统一的劳动力市场基本形成;城乡劳动力市场非均衡更大程度上是由城乡劳动力素质及其他的非制度性因素造成的。城乡劳动力市场非均衡收敛阶段,劳动力是“经济人”的属性进一步得到确认;用人单位的现代企业制度已经建立;政府的主要职能是公共服务。城乡劳动力市场非均衡收敛阶段的资源配置效率要高于城乡劳动力市场非均衡发展阶段,其公平性也比发展阶段更高。从中国城乡劳动力市场非均衡的演进趋势来看,在今后一二十年内,中国城乡劳动力市场非均衡还将继续扩大。从预测结果看,中国城乡劳动力市场非均衡要到2040年前后才可能出现收敛,到2070年前后才可基本实现中国城乡劳动力市场均衡。促进中国城乡劳动力市场均衡发展的主要措施包括:建立和完善城乡平等的劳动力市场制度,提高农村劳动力的素质;提高农村劳动力非农化的程度;完善收入分配制度;建立和完善城乡统一的社会保障制度等。 关键词:劳动力资源配置 劳动力市场 非均衡
China is the richest in labor resources in the world.It is the fundamental issue about how to optimize the allocation of the labor resources.After Reform and Opening Up,urban and rural labor markets of China have always been in disequilibrium,which influenced not only the allocation performance but also the development of overall urban-rural consideration and harmonious and stable society.Therefore,it is a crucial problem about how to realize the equilibrium of urban-rural labor markets,to raise the allocation performance of labor resources and to reach the harmonious urban-rural development and boost the social harmony,stability,fairness and justice.Based on the disequilibrium theory,integrating with the specific national condition,the paper comprehensively applies such methods as historical analysis,comparative analysis,game theory and metrological model analysis.It researches the unequilibruim characteristics,reasons,mechanism and performance,forecasts its evolving tendency and finally put forward the relative policies of improving the equilibrium development of urban-rural labor markets.Its characteristics mainly include that the different allocation that the nation has taken on labor resources,mismatching between the supply and demand of urban-rural labor,the gap between urban and rural salary,the differentiation between the social security system and the unsettled disequilibrium of labor markets.There are three reasons for the disequilibrium between urban and rural labor markets.The first one is that to some extent the post-influences that the government had made the heavy industry priority; the second is that the increasing intolerance for rural labors from the urban has impacted the rural labor employment into urban area; the third is the fact that the transformation of labor structure couldn’t keep pace with industry structure.By means of left labors employment based on the Symmetrical Game Analysis,it finds that the demonstration of successful labor transmission,input information from outside and outside introduction would have greatly impacted the standing labor.The supply of family labors is based on the rational choices of chasing profit maximization.Resources allocation of non-stated units abide by the labor market system by the game proceeding between non-stated units and grass-roots government.And state-owned deploy the resources by Principal-Agent between states and state-owned sectors.Facing the fierce employment conflicts between uraban and rural,the goals of government allocation are to reduce the conflict cost as possible as it could,and also to cut off the possible profits under certain cost.Allocation efficiency in the formation stage of disequilibrium is higher than when the equilibrium has been,which manifested as the situation that rural left labors largely moved to urban and rural non-agricultrized industry and increased the productivity.From the aspect of fairness,social compensation in formation stage is less than that in equilibrium.In the stage of disequilibrium,urban-rural labor resources principally takes the same allocation means.The urban supply is larger than the demand.Though the gap exists between the urban and rural salary,the situation of the city helping rural growth and industry feeding agriculture in return has begun.The differences of urban-rural social security system has been larger.And the disequilibrium degree has been expanding.The above mentioned disequilibrium mainly embodied on the supply-demand quantity and price.Based on the limited information,the paper separately adopts non-agricultrized degree of rural labors and the urban-rural labors income to replace the quantity and price.The research states that the most effective (the first five) micro-factors influencing rural labors income are working time,education,types of employment places,gender and whether to have technical expertise,while education,gender,types of employment places,employment region and working time are the most effective (the first five) micro-factors influencing urban labors income.The differences of micro-factors influen-cing the urban and rural income mainly lie in whether to have technical expertise,working time,marital status,employment sectors and so on.The individual factor,family factor and human capital factor directly influence the employment of rural labors.The individual factor and family factor have indirect influences respectively on the employment of rural labors by human capital factor.Improving the individual factors and family factors to the transfer rate of human capital factors can raise the non-agriculturalized level of rural labors,increase income and employment stability of rural labors.And there was some inherent relations among the influencing factors of employment.Allocation efficiency in the stage of disequilibrium developing is higher than that in the formation stage,which is presented as the condition that rural left labors consistently move to urban and rural non-agricultrized industry and increase productivity.From fairness aspective,the developing phrase is fairer than the forming stage,which is manifested as that rural labors and rural institutions,urban labors and employment units could get the reasonable profits,and social compensation is less than the formation stage.The main researching conclusions of the urban-rural disequilibrium market during the convergent period are as follows: the decreasing extent of the proportion of rural labors is larger than the agricultural production; the proportion of rural labors is still larger; the rural labors don’t flow into the non-agricultural in only one direction,but in two-way or alternative directions; the gap between rural and urban labors salaries begin to be convergent in general; the system factors leading to the disequilibrium urban-rural market have been cut off; the most important difference isn’t the income gap,but possibly the gap between living circumstances and life styles.The reasons why the urban-rural labor market is disequilibrium are that the decreasing extent of the proportion of rural labors begin to go beyond the agricultural production; the price gap between rural labors and non-rural labors began to be narrowed; the unified social security system in rural and urban has basically been built; the unified labor market in rural and urban areas has been established; To a larger degree,the qualities of urban-rural labors and other non-systemic factors lead to the formation of disequilibrium urban-rural labor market.During the disequilibrium convergence period of urban-rural labor market,it has been further confirmed that labor power is Economic Person,and the modern enterprise system of employers has been built; and the main function of government is public services.The resources allocation efficiency of the disequilibrium convergence period is higher than the disequilibrium developing period,and its fairness degree is higher than the developing period.From the evolution trend of disequilibrium in urban-rural labor market,in the future ten or twenty years,the disequilibrium market could become larger.From the forecasted outcomes,the situation will become convergent around 2040 and the urban-rural labor market will basiclly realize its equilibrium around 2070.The major measures to improve the equilibrium development of urban-rural labor market include the construction and improvement of labor market systems,improvement of the market system relating to labor resources allocation,increasing of the qualities of rural labors,promotion of the non-agriculturalized rural labors,perfection of income allocation,and establishment and improvement of unified social security system and others. Keywords: allocation of labor resources; labor market; disequilibrium