以“增量调整”为特征的渐进式改革是中国经济过去30多年持续高速增长的主要动力。随着社会主义市场经济体制的日臻完善，转型时期推动中国经济增长的制度性红利正逐步衰减，宏观经济运行中的各种结构性矛盾也逐步显现。正如温家宝总理在2011年《政府工作报告》所指出的：“……我国发展中不平衡、不协调、不可持续的问题依然突出。主要是：经济增长的资源环境约束强化，投资与消费关系失衡，收入分配差距较大，科技创新能力不强……”宏观经济运行中面临的诸多结构性矛盾正制约着中国经济社会的可持续发展，转变经济发展方式已成为当务之急。蔡跃洲同志的新作《二元结构下的投资膨胀及要素驱动——收入分配视角的机制分析与实证》，契合了上述时代背景，以收入分配格局为切入点，对我国当前经济发展中存在的投资膨胀、投资结构重化及要素驱动进行了深入研究，具有重要的理论和现实意义。

蔡跃洲同志的这本著作首先从二元结构背景出发，结合现行制度性扭曲，分析了当前我国收入分配格局的成因。在此基础上，进一步分析国民收入分配失衡、初次分配失衡及居民收入分配状况对储蓄、投资及投资结构的影响；从收入分配的角度对投资膨胀、投资结构重化及要素驱动的成因进行分析。作者还结合我国即将面临的人口老龄化以及由此带来的劳动力供给不足，对未来我国储蓄、投资及增长的变化情况进行了理论分析和情景模拟。根据本书的分析，二元结构起点及制度性扭曲是现行收入分配格局失衡的根源；而这种分配格局又导致了投资消费失衡、投资膨胀及投资结构重化，形成要素驱动增长的局面；未来人口劳动力结构的变化，将改变我国高国民储蓄率的状况，并使得要素驱动模式失去基本前提和支撑。

作者从收入分配的角度去分析要素驱动的成因，选择的切入点非常准确也很独特；全书将投资消费失衡、收入分配差距，以及资源要素约束等问题之间的联系有机地纳入到一个统一框架下，行文和分析自成体系，为解读当前中国宏观经济面临的结构性矛盾提供了一种新的视角。作者提出的多项主张也很有新意，比如，从资源要素配置环节和初次分配环节扭曲来解释所谓“再分配失灵”现象；从投资膨胀和重工业自循环角度来解释投资结构重化；未来宏观政策应引导投资向财富积累方向转移，等等。

全书的组织结构，层次分明、逻辑严密，反映了作者严谨的治学态度。在写作和论证过程中，蔡跃洲同志充分发挥了其作为数量经济学博士的专业特长，综合运用了数理建模、计量检验、可计算一般均衡 (CGE) 模拟等数量经济学方法，对相关的论点均给出了全面细致的论述，体现了作者扎实的数量经济学功底和对各种方法工具娴熟的驾驭能力。

经济学研究的根本目的在于“经世济用”。运用经济学的理性分析工具剖析解读当代中国经济社会面临的重大问题、为改革和发展提供有力的参考和支撑，是经济学人的光荣责任和使命。而转型中国层出不穷、纷繁复杂的各种新现象、新问题也为中国经济学人提供了难得的机遇和舞台。新一代成长起来的青年学者，有着更为系统和严格的现代经济学训练，应充分发挥专业优势，关注现实、静心思考、大胆创新，服务我国经济社会发展。愿与作者、读者共勉！是为序！

汪同三

2012年1月31日

Gradual reforms characterized by "incremental adjustment" have been the main driving force behind the sustained and rapid growth of China's economy over the past 30 years. With the improvement of the socialist market economic system, the institutional dividends that promoted China's economic growth during the transition period are gradually declining, and various structural contradictions in macroeconomic operation are gradually emerging. As Premier Wen Jiabao noted in his 2011 Government Work Report: "... The problems of imbalance, incoordination and unsustainability in our development remain prominent. Mainly: the resource and environmental constraints of economic growth are strengthened, the relationship between investment and consumption is unbalanced, the income distribution gap is large, and the ability of scientific and technological innovation is not strong..." Many structural contradictions faced in macroeconomic operation are restricting the sustainable development of China's economy and society, and transforming the mode of economic development has become a top priority. Comrade Cai Yuezhou's new work "Investment Inflation and Factor Driving under the Dual Structure: Mechanism Analysis and Empirical Evidence from the Perspective of Income Distribution" is in line with the above background of the times, taking the income distribution pattern as the starting point, and conducting in-depth research on investment inflation, investment structure re-aggravation and factor driving in China's current economic development, which has important theoretical and practical significance. Comrade Cai Yuezhou's book first analyzes the causes of the current income distribution pattern in China from the background of the dual structure and the current institutional distortions. On this basis, the impact of the imbalance of national income distribution, the imbalance of primary distribution and the distribution of household income on savings, investment and investment structure is further analyzed. From the perspective of income distribution, the causes of investment inflation, investment structure re-aggravation and factor driving are analyzed. The author also combines the aging of China's population and the resulting shortage of labor supply, and makes theoretical analysis and scenario simulation of the future changes in China's savings, investment and growth. According to the analysis of this book, the starting point of the binary structure and the institutional distortion are the root causes of the imbalance in the current income distribution pattern. This distribution pattern has led to an imbalance in investment and consumption, investment inflation and heavy investment structure, forming a situation of factor-driven growth. In the future, changes in the labor structure of the population will change the situation of China's high national savings rate and make the factor-driven model lose its basic premise and support. The author analyzes the factors driven by factors from the perspective of income distribution, and the entry point chosen is very accurate and unique; The book organically integrates the links between investment and consumption imbalance, income distribution gap, and resource factor constraints into a unified framework, and provides a new perspective for interpreting the structural contradictions facing China's macroeconomy. A number of ideas put forward by the author are also very innovative, for example, to explain the so-called "redistribution failure" phenomenon from the distortion of resource element allocation and primary allocation; Explain the restructuring of investment from the perspective of investment inflation and self-circulation of heavy industry; In the future, macro policies should guide investment to transfer to wealth accumulation, and so on. The organizational structure of the whole book, with clear hierarchies and rigorous logic, reflects the author's rigorous academic attitude. In the process of writing and argumentation, Comrade Cai Yuezhou gave full play to his professional expertise as a doctor of quantitative economics, comprehensively used quantitative economic methods such as mathematical modeling, econometric testing, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation, and gave comprehensive and detailed discussions on relevant arguments, reflecting the author's solid quantitative economics foundation and skillful ability to control various methods and tools. The fundamental purpose of economic research is to "benefit the world". It is the glorious responsibility and mission of economists to use the rational analysis tools of economics to analyze and interpret the major problems facing contemporary China's economy and society, and to provide strong reference and support for reform and development. The endless and complex new phenomena and problems emerging in China in transition also provide rare opportunities and stages for Chinese economists. The new generation of young scholars who have grown up with more systematic and rigorous training in modern economics should give full play to their professional advantages, pay attention to reality, think quietly, and innovate boldly to serve China's economic and social development. I would like to encourage the author and readers! is for the order! Wang Tongsan, January 31, 2012（AI翻译）