本书是中国社会科学院哲学社会科学创新工程项目“经济预测与经济政策评价”的研究成果。该项目组成员长期从事中国宏观经济模型构建、中国经济形势跟踪分析与预测、中国经济政策效应模拟与评价等方面的研究工作，近年来，撰写了《中国经济蓝皮书》系列主报告及其他大量的政策评价和分析报告，发表了许多学术论文。本书汇集了项目组目前正在使用的各类主要宏观经济模型。这些模型力图反映国际上宏观经济建模技术的最新前沿，并紧密结合中国经济运行的特点，使用中国的数据，构建了中国宏观经济模型，进行经济预测和分析，定量模拟和评价了若干重要经济政策的效应，可以经济政策制定提供参考。

本书包括以下十个重要经济模型：中国宏观经济年度模型、中国宏观经济季度协整模型、中国宏观经济季度GVAR模型、全球GVAR模型、中国世代交叠CGE模型、中国微观模拟与CGE连接模型、中国经济DSGE模型、人口老龄化影响中国经济增长潜力的数理模型、中国经济—能源—环境动态CGE模型（CN3EM）和中国3E—CGE模型。

在经济预测与经济政策等评价方面，本书涉及的应用主要有：年度、季度及中长期经济预测；财税改革与收入分配政策效应模拟；货币政策效应模拟；经济冲击或经济政策的国际溢出效应模拟；能源与环境政策效应模拟等。

本书是集体研究成果，各章的作者如下：第一章，娄峰、沈利生；第二章，刘晓飞、张延群；第三章，张涛、巩书欣；第四章，张延群；第五章，王丽；第六章，万相昱；第七章，李雪松、王秀丽；第八章，李军；第九章，张友国；第十章，娄峰。

当前，中国经济正处于全面深化改革的关键阶段，迫切需要加强中国特色新型智库建设。我们希望，本书的出版，能够促进中国宏观经济模型及经济政策评价研究工作的进一步深化，为中国宏观经济调控和改革决策的科学化贡献应有的力量。

由于作者学识所限，书中难免有不当甚至错误之处，恳请各界读者批评指正。

李雪松

2016年3月于北京

This book is the research result of the "Economic Forecasting and Economic Policy Evaluation" of the Philosophy and Social Sciences Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. In recent years, the project team members have been engaged in the construction of China's macroeconomic model, the tracking analysis and prediction of China's economic situation, and the simulation and evaluation of China's economic policy effects, and in recent years, they have written the main report of the "Blue Book of China's Economy" series and a large number of other policy evaluation and analysis reports, and published many academic papers. This book brings together the main macroeconomic models currently in use by the project team. These models try to reflect the latest frontier of macroeconomic modeling technology in the world, and closely combine the characteristics of China's economic operation, use Chinese data, construct China's macroeconomic model, conduct economic prediction and analysis, quantitatively simulate and evaluate the effects of several important economic policies, and provide reference for economic policy formulation. This book includes the following ten important economic models: China's macroeconomic annual model, China's macroeconomic quarterly cointegration model, China's macroeconomic quarterly GVAR model, global GVAR model, China's generational overlapping CGE model, China's micro-simulation and CGE connection model, China's economic DSGE model, the mathematical model of population aging affecting China's economic growth potential, China's economy-energy-environment dynamic CGE model (CN3EM), and China's 3E-CGE model. In terms of economic forecasting and economic policy evaluation, the applications covered in this book mainly include: annual, quarterly and medium- and long-term economic forecasting; Simulation of the effects of fiscal and taxation reform and income distribution policies; simulation of monetary policy effects; simulations of international spillovers from economic shocks or economic policies; Simulation of energy and environmental policy effects, etc. This book is the result of collective research, and the authors of each chapter are as follows: Chapter 1, Lou Feng, Shen Lisheng; Chapter II, Liu Xiaofei and Zhang Yanqun; Chapter 3, Zhang Tao and Gong Shuxin; Chapter 4, Zhang Yanqun; Chapter 5, Wang Li; Chapter 6, Wan Xiangyu; Chapter 7, Li Xuesong and Wang Xiuli; Chapter VIII, Li Jun; Chapter 9, Zhang Youguo; Chapter 10, Lou Feng. At present, China's economy is in a critical stage of comprehensively deepening reform, and it is urgent to strengthen the construction of new think tanks with Chinese characteristics. We hope that the publication of this book will further deepen the research on China's macroeconomic model and economic policy evaluation, and contribute to the scientific decision-making of China's macroeconomic regulation and reform. Due to the author's limited knowledge, it is inevitable that there will be improprieties or even errors in the book, and readers from all walks of life are kindly requested to criticize and correct. Li Xuesong in Beijing in March 2016（AI翻译）