蔡昉

随着中国特色社会主义发展进入新时代，经过40年的改革开放和高速经济增长，中国的经济社会也进入到一个崭新的发展阶段。在新的阶段上，自然面临着一系列新的挑战，需要做出很多新的抉择。特别是，在我国仍处于并将长期处于社会主义初级阶段的基本国情没有变、我国是世界最大发展中国家的国际地位没有变的基本判断下，我国社会主要矛盾已经转化为人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分的发展之间的矛盾。解决主要矛盾体现的主要制约因素，及其在不同领域的具体表现，应对来自经济、社会、政治、文化、生态、国际、国防等方面的各种挑战，学术界应该具有足够的忧患意识，进行更加深入的思考。

对于我国所处发展阶段的描述以及面对的挑战，学术界可以用多种方法论和方法进行探索，其中，有两种方式常常被采纳，从而提出一些值得讨论的命题。

一种方式是按照实证性的传统对发展阶段做出判断和描述，从横向和纵向两个维度去寻求其历史参照和相应的借鉴。例如，经济学家客观地描述过一些经济社会发展的转折点，学者们一般也以更为实证的研究予以呼应。正如美国摇滚歌手鲍勃·迪伦在歌词中问道：“需要走过多少条路，一个人终能长大成熟？”经济社会发展总是要翻山越岭、爬沟过坎，柳暗花明又一村。根据相关的历史经验，揭示出经济社会发展有哪些关口是不能回避的，哪些转折点必须跨越，对政策制订无疑具有一定的参考价值。

例如，针对一个二元经济发展如何进入新阶段，并由此转向具有新古典特征的增长阶段，我根据其他经济体的经历以及中国经济发展出现的崭新情况，特别是人口转变到达的新阶段，在多年前做出中国经济已经跨越了刘易斯转折点的判断，这意味着中国经济增长类型已经发生根本性的变化。这个判断一度引起了广泛的讨论，现在已经得到绝大多数学者和政策研究者的认同。或许正是那场众说纷纭、莫衷一是的争论，对于人们认识后来确认的经济发展新常态，做了一些理论和经验的准备。

另一种方式是遵循相对规范性的传统，对社会和决策者提出具有警示性的预言。研究者和讨论者一般是以规范研究的方式参与。王灵桂和张中元所著《跨越七大“陷阱”——关于中国发展的观点和我们的思考》，针对的就是这种研究。本书介绍了社会上或学术界流传的诸多以“陷阱”为名的概念，包括“中等收入陷阱”、“梅佐乔诺陷阱”、“去工业化陷阱”、“比较优势陷阱”、“塔西佗陷阱”、“修昔底德陷阱”和“金德尔伯格陷阱”，并做出了作者自己的思考。这些冠之以“陷阱”的说法，虽然也包括了若干经济学家讨论的实证性命题，但多数属于规范性学术传统的内容。

或许有的学者对这类关于“陷阱”的概括不以为然，认为是一些研究者在造概念，甚至有哗众取宠之嫌。然而，概念作为思维体系中一个最基本的构筑单位，是理论家把所观察到的事物进行抽象，意图最终概括成理论的一个工具。因而，造概念也就是进行研究的一个必不可少的中间过程。经济学家在形成相对成熟或成体系的理论之前，常常把现实中的观察结果提炼为一些特征化事实（stylized facts），就是依据的这个道理。至于哗众取宠之说，如果提出的问题的确有意义，抛砖引玉而启发更多同行参与讨论，应该是有益无害的。

当然，我绝不是说中国必然或者有很大的概率，会陷入上述一个、两个、若干个或所有“陷阱”。而且，作者书中所列举并放在一起思考的这些“陷阱”概念，跨越了经济、社会、政治、国际关系等不同领域，每种概括在认知的成熟度上也差异颇大。但是，它们在一个问题上具有共同点，从而使本研究具有价值。那就是这种种“陷阱”对中国当前发展阶段面临问题所具有的或大或小的针对性，从而具有启示性。也就是说，如果从未雨绸缪或者预则立、不预则废的立场出发，本书值得一读，特别是值得由此引发读者的思考。

Cai Fang entered a new era with the development of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and after 40 years of reform and opening up and rapid economic growth, China's economy and society have also entered a new stage of development. In this new phase, nature faces a new set of challenges and many new choices need to be made. In particular, under the basic judgment that our country is still in the primary stage of socialism and will remain for a long time in the primary stage of socialism, and our international status as the world's largest developing country has not changed, the main contradiction in our society has been transformed into a contradiction between the people's growing need for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development. To solve the main constraints reflected in the main contradictions, their specific manifestations in different fields, and to deal with various challenges from economic, social, political, cultural, ecological, international, national defense and other aspects, the academic community should have sufficient awareness of danger and think more deeply. For the description of China's development stage and the challenges it faces, the academic community can explore a variety of methodologies and methods, of which two methods are often adopted to put forward some propositions worthy of discussion. One way is to judge and describe the development stage according to the empirical tradition, and seek its historical reference and corresponding reference from the horizontal and vertical dimensions. For example, economists have objectively described some turning points in economic and social development, and scholars generally echo them with more empirical research. As American rocker Bob Dylan asked in the lyrics: "How many roads do you need to travel before a person can grow up and mature?" "Economic and social development always has to climb over mountains, climb ditches and hurdles, and another village is bright. According to relevant historical experience, it reveals which thresholds of economic and social development cannot be avoided and which turning points must be crossed, which undoubtedly has certain reference value for policy formulation. For example, in response to how a dualistic economic development has entered a new stage and thus shifted to a growth stage with neoclassical characteristics, I have made a judgment many years ago that China's economy has crossed the Lewis turning point, based on the experience of other economies and the new situation of China's economic development, especially the new stage reached by the demographic transition, which means that the type of China's economic growth has undergone a fundamental change. This judgment was once widely debated, and is now accepted by the vast majority of scholars and policy researchers. Perhaps it was the divergent and inconsistent debate that prepared people with some theory and experience for understanding the new normal of economic development that was later confirmed. Another way is to follow a relatively normative tradition and make alarming predictions to society and policymakers. Researchers and discussants generally participate in normative research. Wang Linggui and Zhang Zhongyuan's book "Crossing the Seven "Traps": Perspectives on China's Development and Our Thoughts" addresses this kind of research. This book introduces many concepts known as "traps" circulating in society or academia, including the "middle-income trap", "Mezzogiono trap", "deindustrialization trap", "comparative advantage trap", "Tacitus trap", "Thucydides trap" and "Kindleberger trap", and makes the author's own reflections. Although these "traps" also include empirical propositions discussed by several economists, most of them belong to the normative academic tradition. Perhaps some scholars disagree with this kind of generalization about "traps", believing that some researchers are creating concepts, and even sensationalism. However, concept, as one of the most basic building blocks of the system of thought, is a tool for theorists to abstract what they observe with the intention of eventually generalizing it into a theory. Therefore, conceptualization is an indispensable intermediate process for research. Economists, before forming relatively mature or systematic theories, often distill their observations in reality into stylized facts, which is based on this truth. As for grandstanding, if the questions raised are indeed meaningful, it should be beneficial and harmless to inspire more peers to participate in the discussion. Of course, I am by no means saying that China will inevitably or have a high probability of falling into one, two, several, or all of the above "traps." Moreover, the "trap" concepts listed and considered together in the author's book span different fields such as economics, society, politics, and international relations, and each generalization varies greatly in terms of cognitive maturity. However, they have something in common on one issue, which makes this study valuable. That is the "trap" that this kind of "trap" has a greater or lesser degree of relevance to the problems facing China at its current stage of development, and thus has enlightenment. That is to say, if you have never planned for a rainy day or predetermined and not predetermined, this book is worth reading, especially worth provoking the reader's thinking.（AI翻译）