自2007年以来，老龄经济与养老金改革问题一直是笔者专注研究的领域。最初，笔者的研究重点即为非缴费型公共养老金体系的架构与可持续性分析，以及第二人口红利理论与个人账户养老金体系构建研究。随着对老龄经济与养老金改革领域的不断关注，笔者体会到关于覆盖全民的养老金体系构建研究方面还有诸多问题需要深入探讨，例如，如何从微观视角对公共养老金制度的公平性进行评价并设计尽可能体现微观公平的公共养老金制度？如何从实证角度验证第二人口红利效应？如何构建有利于实现第二人口红利效应的养老金体系？……基于以上思考，笔者申请了教育部人文社会科学规划项目：《覆盖全民的养老金体系构建研究》（项目编号：11YJA840027），本书即为该项目的最终成果。

中国老龄化速度远快于其他国家，根据联合国发布的《世界人口展望》，到2035年，中国的老年抚养比将超过50%，未来我们如何养老？这已成为当前我们必须考虑的问题。“社会养老”还是“家庭养老”?“代际赡养”还是“自我防老”？不同养老模式的经济效应有何差别？对上述问题的思考亦是对未来养老金制度体系的思考。

无论是早于19世纪末俾斯麦政府时期开始建立社会保险体系的德国，还是根据《贝弗里奇报告》构建完善三支柱养老金体系的英国，都构建了覆盖全民的公共养老保障制度。中国现有的公共养老保障制度是否能够有效应对人口老龄化的挑战？何种公共养老保障制度模式适用于老龄化的中国？缴费型的社会保险制度还是非缴费型的国民年金制度？中国碎片化的公共养老金体系该如何变革？未来中国所建立的覆盖城乡居民的社会保障体系中的基本养老保障体系的制度模式该如何选择？要回答上述问题，既要对现有公共养老保障制度安排有充分的认识，又需要对未来的制度发展提出合理的构架。本书第一章首先从各角度探讨养老金体系构建的相关理论，全面梳理中国养老金体系现状与局限性，探讨西方国家养老金体系改革对中国的启示。

第二章、第三章和第四章结合宏观视角和微观视角对中国当前公共养老金体系——城镇职工（含机关事业单位工作人员）养老金体系和城乡居民养老金体系进行分析。第二章阐述城镇职工（含机关事业单位）基本养老金体系变革、可持续性与统筹战略问题。第三章阐述城乡居民公共养老保险体系的构建过程、区域差异与可持续性问题。当前从微观视角对中国公共养老金体系所进行的研究是有限的，然而微观视角的分析一方面可以为宏观公共养老金政策的调整提供微观基础，另一方面可以为微观个体的优化选择行为提供参考，同时微观个体的最优选择行为可以进一步促进宏观养老金体系的调整。基本这一思考，本书第四章则从微观个体视角出发，分析公共养老金制度的性别影响，探讨灵活就业人员这一重要的微观主体在公共养老金体系下的最优参保选择行为。

在分析当前的公共养老金制度问题后，本书进一步探讨重构中国公共养老金体系的可能安排及该制度安排的长期可持续性。根据国内外的研究，要消除老年人口的贫困问题，同时又让大多数人能够实现老年时的财务生活独立，仅依靠公共养老保险体系是不够的，需要构建多支柱的养老金体系。根据既有研究，多支柱的养老金体系应由中央统筹的基础养老金（非缴费型公共养老金制度）与积累制的个人账户养老金构成。其中，中央统筹的基础养老金必须具有“广覆盖、低水平”的特征。但即使如此，也有必要测算该养老金制度的长期可持续性。这就需要在根据制度目标确立基础养老金待遇水平的基础上，预测长期人口发展趋势与经济发展趋势。本书第五章探讨国内外关于非缴费型公共养老金制度实践及其效果的相关研究综述，提出在中国构建普惠制公共养老金制度安排的设想，并探讨这一制度安排的长期可持续性。

随着老龄化程度的加剧，世界各国普遍开始延迟退休年龄，同时也普遍降低了基本养老金的相对水平。仅依靠第一支柱的公共养老金不足以养老，老年人养老需要第二与第三支柱养老金的支持，这亦已成为全球的共识。目前，各国的第二与第三支柱养老金制度基本是缴费确定型的制度安排，这种制度模式是典型的积累制养老金制度。构建积累制的个人账户养老金制度的主要目标是让大多数人能够通过自我的积累实现2老年时的财务生活独立。这一制度安排既有利于缓解财政的养老金支出压力，又有利于解决我国一系列老龄化社会问题。同时，人口经济学的相关研究表明，有效的养老金积累机制仍然可能使老龄化的经济体获得相应的人口红利。个人账户养老金制度是否有利于老龄化中国实现人口红利效应？本书以此为研究出发点，尝试为个人账户养老金制度构建提供一个人口经济学的理论基础。本书第六章从理论与政策的角度探讨中国个人账户养老金制度构建问题。作为养老金体系的第二支柱，企业（职业）年金是对基本养老金的重要补充，也是个人账户养老金制度的重要组成部分。在明确个人账户养老金制度构建的理论基础后，本书第七章从政策实践的角度介绍了中国企业年金制度、机关事业单位职业年金制度与西方典型职业养老金计划。成熟的金融市场需要养老基金的支持，养老金（尤其是积累制个人账户养老金计划）的发展对金融市场与金融机构具有深远的影响，本书第八章即着眼于从金融视角看养老金体系的发展。

本书的学术特点与理论创新体现在以下三个方面。

第一，坚持宏观与微观相结合的视角分析中国公共养老金体系的问题。当前，或囿于数据限制，或囿于观念制约，关于中国公共养老金体系的研究往往缺乏对微观主体的关注。本书首先利用CHARLS微观调查数据从性别视角分析中国公共养老体系的公平性；并依据动态优化方法分析灵活就业人员最优参保年限选择问题。微观视角的分析可以为公共养老金政策的调整提供依据。

第二，跳出养老保险制度安排模式设计普惠制非缴费型的基础养老金体系。既有关于中国养老金制度安排的研究往往囿于养老保险这一现有的制度安排。本书跳出养老保险制度安排模式设计了普惠制非缴费型的基础养老金体系，并结合人口预测思想与长期经济趋势判断分析了这一制度安排的长期可持续性。尽管这一制度设计与现有制度安排有较大的差异，在重构中国养老金体系的过程中，分析其他可能的制度选择这一尝试无疑是有必要的。

第三，从老龄经济视角出发研究个人账户养老金制度构建。人口结构与经济增长的关系研究即为人口红利理论研究的范畴，这一研究从20世纪90年代才开始起步。目前，关于人口红利的研究主要是分析第一人口红利的影响，而关于老龄人口红利或第二人口红利的研究更是处3于起步阶段。本书明晰了老龄化社会的人口红利效应，结合中国的长期人口发展趋势说明老龄化中国人口红利效应实现的可能性，并从第二人口红利的角度提出个人账户养老金体系的构建设想。这一视角的研究不仅说明构建积累制个人账户养老金体系的社会意义，还说明其可能的经济贡献，有利于加强各界对个人账户养老金体系发展的重视。

应该说，本书是对2007年以来笔者在老龄经济与养老金改革领域所进行的相关研究的一次大综合。构建养老金体系需要经济学、管理学、法学、社会学等多学科的视角。局限于本人的学科背景，本书更多是从经济学视角研究养老金体系构建问题。宏观与微观视角结合分析中国公共养老金体系问题是本书的特色之一，当然本书在微观角度所进行的研究是有限的，未来有必要丰富这一方面的研究。

在本书的编写过程中，清华大学养老金工作室的杨燕绥教授及各位同人提出了诸多宝贵的意见，中国社会科学院经济所的金成武副研究员对老龄人口红利模型的构建提供了重要的技术支持，吕雪丽、尚进、王嘉冰等同学亦为第八章的部分内容提供了资料支持，在此一并表示感谢！

杨娟

2016年4月18日

Since 2007, the issue of the aging economy and pension reform has been my focus on research. Initially, the author's research focuses on the structure and sustainability analysis of non-contributory public pension system, as well as the theory of second demographic dividend and the construction of individual account pension system. With the continuous attention to the field of aging economy and pension reform, the author realizes that there are still many issues that need to be discussed in depth in the research on the construction of a pension system covering the whole people, for example, how to evaluate the fairness of the public pension system from a micro perspective and design a public pension system that reflects the micro fairness as much as possible. How to verify the second demographic dividend effect from an empirical perspective? How to build a pension system that is conducive to realizing the second demographic dividend effect? ...... Based on the above thinking, the author applied for the humanities and social sciences planning project of the Ministry of Education: "Research on the Construction of a Pension System Covering the Whole People" (project number: 11YJA840027), which is the final result of the project. According to the World Population Prospects, released by the United Nations, China's old-age dependency ratio will exceed 50% by 2035. This has become an issue that we must take into account at the moment. "Social pension" or "family pension"? Intergenerational support" or "self-aging"? What are the differences in the economic effects of different pension models? Thinking about the above issues is also thinking about the future pension system. Whether it is Germany, which began to establish a social insurance system during the Bismarck government at the end of the 19th century, or the United Kingdom, which built a three-pillar pension system according to the Beveridge Report, a public pension security system covering the whole people has been constructed. Can China's existing public old-age security system effectively cope with the challenges of an aging population? What kind of public old-age security system model is applicable to aging China? Contributory social insurance system or non-contributory national pension system? How should China's fragmented public pension system change? In the future, how to choose the institutional model of the basic old-age security system in the social security system established by China covering urban and rural residents? To answer the above questions, it is necessary to have a full understanding of the existing arrangements of the public old-age security system, and also to put forward a reasonable framework for the future development of the system. The first chapter of this book first discusses the relevant theories of pension system construction from various angles, comprehensively sorts out the current situation and limitations of China's pension system, and discusses the enlightenment of pension system reform in Western countries to China. Chapters 2, 3 and 4 combine macro and micro perspectives to analyze China's current public pension system, including the pension system for urban employees (including staff of government agencies and institutions) and the pension system for urban and rural residents. Chapter 2 expounds the reform, sustainability and overall strategy of the basic pension system for urban employees (including institutions and institutions). Chapter 3 describes the construction process, regional differences and sustainability of the public endowment insurance system for urban and rural residents. At present, the research on China's public pension system from the micro perspective is limited, but the analysis from the micro perspective can provide a micro basis for the adjustment of macro public pension policy on the one hand, and on the other hand, it can provide a reference for the optimal selection behavior of micro individuals, and the optimal selection behavior of micro individuals can further promote the adjustment of the macro pension system. Based on this consideration, the fourth chapter of this book analyzes the gender impact of the public pension system from the perspective of micro-individuals, and discusses the optimal insurance selection behavior of flexible employment personnel, an important micro-subject, under the public pension system. After analyzing the current problems of the public pension system, this book further explores the possible arrangements for reconstructing China's public pension system and the long-term sustainability of this institutional arrangement. According to domestic and foreign research, in order to eliminate the poverty of the elderly population and at the same time enable most people to achieve financial independence in old age, it is not enough to rely on the public pension insurance system, and it is necessary to build a multi-pillar pension system. According to existing research, the multi-pillar pension system should be composed of the central unified basic pension (non-contributory public pension system) and the accumulation system of individual account pension. Among them, the basic pension coordinated by the central government must have the characteristics of "wide coverage and low level". But even so, it is necessary to measure the long-term sustainability of the pension system. This requires forecasting long-term population development trends and economic development trends on the basis of establishing the basic pension treatment level according to institutional goals. Chapter 5 of this book discusses a review of relevant research on the practice and effect of non-contributory public pension systems at home and abroad, puts forward the idea of constructing GSP public pension system arrangements in China, and discusses the long-term sustainability of this institutional arrangement. With the intensification of aging, countries around the world have generally begun to delay the retirement age, and at the same time, the relative level of basic pensions has generally been reduced. It has also become a global consensus that relying on the first pillar of public pension alone is not enough, and the elderly need the support of the second and third pillar pensions. At present, the second and third pillar pension systems of various countries are basically deterministic institutional arrangements, which are typical accumulation pension systems. The main goal of constructing an accumulation system of personal account pension system is to enable most people to achieve financial independence in old age through self-accumulation. This institutional arrangement is not only conducive to alleviating the pressure of financial pension expenditure, but also conducive to solving a series of aging social problems in China. At the same time, relevant studies in population economics show that effective pension accumulation mechanisms may still enable aging economies to obtain corresponding demographic dividends. Is the personal account pension system conducive to the aging China to achieve the demographic dividend effect? Taking this as the starting point of research, this book attempts to provide a theoretical basis for population economics for the construction of personal account pension system. Chapter 6 of this book discusses the construction of China's individual account pension system from the perspective of theory and policy. As the second pillar of the pension system, enterprise (occupational) annuity is an important supplement to the basic pension and an important part of the personal account pension system. After clarifying the theoretical basis for the construction of individual account pension system, Chapter 7 of this book introduces China's enterprise annuity system, occupational annuity system of institutions and institutions, and typical Western occupational pension plans from the perspective of policy practice. Mature financial markets need the support of pension funds, and the development of pensions (especially accumulation personal account pension plans) has a profound impact on financial markets and financial institutions, and the eighth chapter of this book focuses on the development of pension systems from a financial perspective. The academic characteristics and theoretical innovations of this book are reflected in the following three aspects. First, adhere to the combination of macro and micro perspectives to analyze the problems of China's public pension system. At present, either limited by data restrictions or conceptual constraints, research on China's public pension system often lacks attention to micro-subjects. This book first uses CHARLS microsurvey data to analyze the fairness of China's public pension system from a gender perspective. According to the dynamic optimization method, the optimal insurance period selection of flexible employment personnel is analyzed. The analysis from a micro perspective can provide a basis for the adjustment of public pension policies. Second, jump out of the pension system arrangement model to design a GSP non-contributory basic pension system. Existing research on China's pension system arrangement is often limited to the existing institutional arrangement of pension insurance. This book jumps out of the pension system arrangement model, designs the GSP non-contributory basic pension system, and analyzes the long-term sustainability of this institutional arrangement based on the idea of population forecasting and long-term economic trends. Although this system design is quite different from the existing institutional arrangement, in the process of restructuring China's pension system, it is undoubtedly necessary to analyze other possible institutional options. Third, the construction of individual account pension system is studied from the perspective of aging economy. The study of the relationship between population structure and economic growth is the scope of the research of demographic dividend theory, which only began in the 90s of the 20th century. At present, the research on the demographic dividend is mainly to analyze the impact of the first demographic dividend, while the research on the elderly demographic dividend or the second demographic dividend is in its infancy. This book clarifies the demographic dividend effect of an aging society, explains the possibility of realizing the lip dividend effect of aging Chinese combined with China's long-term population development trend, and puts forward the construction of an individual account pension system from the perspective of the second demographic dividend. The research from this perspective not only shows the social significance of constructing an accumulation system of individual account pension system, but also explains its possible economic contribution, which is conducive to strengthening the attention of all walks of life to the development of individual account pension system. It should be said that this book is a synthesis of the author's research on the aging economy and pension reform since 2007. Building a pension system requires multidisciplinary perspectives such as economics, management, law, and sociology. Limited to my disciplinary background, this book is more about the construction of the pension system from the perspective of economics. The combination of macro and micro perspectives to analyze the problem of China's public pension system is one of the characteristics of this book, of course, the research carried out in this book from the micro perspective is limited, and it is necessary to enrich this aspect of research in the future. In the process of compiling this book, Professor Yang Yansui of Tsinghua University Pension Studio and his colleagues put forward many valuable opinions, Jin Chengwu, associate researcher of the Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, provided important technical support for the construction of the aging demographic dividend model, and Lv Xueli, Shang Jin, Wang Jiabing and other students also provided data support for some of the content of Chapter 8. Yang Juan, April 18, 2016（AI翻译）