2012年4月，时任国务院总理温家宝与中东欧16国领导人在波兰华沙会晤，提出关于促进中国与中东欧国家友好合作的12项举措，开启“16+1合作”。2013年9月和10月，习近平主席在出访中亚和东南亚国家期间，先后提出共建“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”倡议，绘制“一带一路”的宏伟蓝图。

从“16+1”到“一带一路”，中国与中东欧国家合作相继获得了两个重要平台，面临前所未有的机遇与挑战。为进一步加强中国与中东欧国家的传统友谊和互信，拓展合作方式，深化合作内容，2016年10月21—22日，由中国社会科学院和上海大学主办，中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所、上海大学上海合作组织公共外交研究院、上海大学上海电影学院承办的中国社会科学论坛·第三届中国—中东欧论坛在上海举行。国内十多家学术机构和高等院校、11个中东欧国家以及俄罗斯和乌克兰等国家相关机构的代表参加了论坛。与会代表围绕“从‘16+1’到‘一带一路’：合作·发展·共赢”的主题，探讨了中东欧国家的现状和发展趋势、中国与中东欧国家关系的历史与现实、“16+1合作”与“一带一路”建设等诸多问题。本论文集是论坛的主要组织者中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所中东欧研究室邀约与会代表撰写而成，几位因各种原因未能到会的中东欧国家学者也提交了论文。

中东欧国家的转型与发展是中东欧研究中的基本问题，在中国与中东欧国家关系日益密切的今天，这个问题具有十分重要的现实意义，因为增进相互了解是开展合作必不可少的前提条件。1989年以来保加利亚、匈牙利、波兰、罗马尼亚、斯洛伐克与捷克共和国的政党和政治体制经历了怎样的变化？如何看待维谢格拉德集团四国政治中的保守主义倾向？四国的对外经济关系怎样？英国脱欧将给它们带来什么影响？《代顿协议》后西巴尔干国家的发展状况和相互关系如何？地区合作的成绩和问题何在？四位外国专家给出了他们的答案。

中国与中东欧国家良好的双边关系是“16+1合作”和“一带一路”建设的基础，“16+1合作”和“一带一路”建设的推进为双边关系的发展提供了难得的机遇。国内外六位学者分别阐述了中波、中匈、中塞、中罗和中保关系特别是经贸关系的进展，他们对“16+1合作”和“一带一路”建设给予肯定，认为中国与中东欧国家传统友好，当前合作不断加强，同时指出双边关系中存在的问题，提出颇具建设性的政策建议。值得一提的是，匈牙利、塞尔维亚、罗马尼亚和保加利亚学者分析了他们各自国家与中国的经贸关系，相信来自合作对象国的声音会令国内学界乃至社会各界有所启发。

“16+1合作”与“一带一路”建设是中国提出的两大倡议。对二者之间的关系，两位中国学者不约而同地认为，“16+1合作”对“一带一路”建设具有先行示范意义，将为“一带一路”建设提供有益的启示，而“一带一路”建设的推进又为“16+1合作”开辟了更大的发展空间。对“16+1合作”，三位中国学者分别论述了中东欧16国内部及中国与中东欧国家的差异性和合作的“精准性”、地方合作、自由贸易区合作等问题。克罗地亚学者则从“16+1合作”的角度谈论了他对于中国对西巴尔干外交政策的认识。专家学者的目光还越过中东欧，投向更为广阔的世界，乌克兰对“16+1”与“一带一路”的看法和参与的可能性、土耳其新奥斯曼主义与“一带一路”的关系、欧盟的亚洲地区战略与“一带一路”的对接成为他们关注的话题。

人文交流作为深化国家关系的“基础设施”和推进民间友好的“民心工程”2951114，是“16+1合作”和“一带一路”建设的重要内容。专家学者们不仅探讨了中国对中东欧国家开展人文外交的途径、目标、影响因素和有效做法，而且对电影交流、语言政策和教育合作等“16+1”和“一带一路”研究中较少涉及的领域做了较为详细的阐释。波兰前驻华大使克萨维利·布尔斯基对中国文化在波兰的前世今昔的描述，恰与中国学者对他所进行的文化外交活动的思考相映成趣，共同描绘了一幅中波人文交流的鲜活画卷。

中国与中东欧国家合作的机遇与风险深受中国学者的重视，他们的研究既包括宏观层面上对“16+1”在认识、政治合作和经济合作方面的风险分析，也包括中观层面上对中国在中东欧国家投资的政治风险评估，还包括微观层面上对与某一国——与马其顿的合作和建设某一合作项目——匈塞铁路匈牙利段的机遇与风险的总结。在此基础上提出的应对措施将有助于中国在与中东欧国家合作中把握机遇、规避风险。

感谢中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所的领导和同仁们的大力支持；感谢中国社会科学出版社的编辑出版团队所做的大量工作；更要感谢论文集的各位作者，他们中有德高望重的前辈，亦有锋芒初露的新锐，有中国从事中东欧研究的学者，亦有来自中东欧国家、乃至俄罗斯和乌克兰的专家，他们文风各异，观点也不尽相同，但都以真诚的态度、深厚的学养和严谨的学风为推动“16+1合作”和“一带一路”建设建言献策。

本论文集不是“16+1”和“一带一路”研究的扛鼎之作，更不是解决“16+1合作”和“一带一路”建设中所有问题的万应灵丹，并且由于编者水平所限，疏漏和不当之处在所难免，它只是客观反映了国内外部分专家学者对“16+1”和“一带一路”的所思所想，只愿能将学界的研究成果推向社会并服务社会。“16+1”和“一带一路”方兴未艾，对它的研究必将不断深入，我们会继续努力。

高歌

2017年8月

In April 2012, then Premier Wen Jiabao met with leaders of 16 Central and Eastern European countries in Warsaw, Poland, and proposed 12 measures to promote friendly cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European countries, starting the "16+1 cooperation". In September and October 2013, during his visits to Central and Southeast Asian countries, President Xi Jinping proposed the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" initiative, drawing up a grand blueprint for the "Belt and Road". From the "16+1" to the "Belt and Road", China has successively obtained two important platforms for cooperation with Central and Eastern European countries, facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges. In order to further strengthen the traditional friendship and mutual trust between China and Central and Eastern European countries, expand cooperation methods and deepen cooperation content, the 3rd China-CEEC Forum was held in Shanghai on October 21-22, 2016, hosted by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Shanghai University, and organized by the Institute of Russian and Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the Institute of Public Diplomacy of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization of Shanghai University, and the Shanghai Film Academy of Shanghai University. Representatives of more than a dozen domestic academic institutions and universities, 11 Central and Eastern European countries, as well as relevant institutions in Russia and Ukraine participated in the forum. Focusing on the theme of "From '16+1' to 'Belt and Road': Cooperation, Development and Win-Win", the participants discussed the current situation and development trend of CEE countries, the history and reality of China's relations with CEECs, "16+1 cooperation" and "Belt and Road" construction and many other issues. This collection of papers was written by the main organizer of the forum, the Central and Eastern European Research Office of the Institute of Russian Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and several scholars from Central and Eastern European countries who could not attend the conference for various reasons also submitted papers. The transformation and development of CEE countries is a basic issue in CEE studies, and this issue is of great practical significance today, when China and CEEC have increasingly close relations, because enhancing mutual understanding is an indispensable prerequisite for cooperation. How have political parties and political systems changed in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and the Czech Republic since 1989? How to view the conservative tendencies in the politics of the four countries of the Visegrad group? What are the foreign economic relations of the four countries? What impact will Brexit have on them? What is the state of development and interrelations between the countries of the Western Balkans after Dayton? What are the achievements and problems of regional cooperation? Four foreign experts gave their answers. The good bilateral relations between China and Central and Eastern European countries are the foundation of the "16+1 cooperation" and the "Belt and Road" construction, and the promotion of the "16+1 cooperation" and the "Belt and Road" construction provides a rare opportunity for the development of bilateral relations. Six scholars at home and abroad respectively expounded on the progress of China-Poland, China-Hungary, China-Cyprus, China-Romania and China-Bulgaria relations, especially economic and trade relations, and affirmed the "16+1 cooperation" and the "Belt and Road" construction, believing that China and Central and Eastern European countries are traditionally friendly and the current cooperation is constantly strengthening, and at the same time pointed out the existing problems in bilateral relations and put forward quite constructive policy suggestions. It is worth mentioning that Hungarian, Serbian, Romanian and Bulgarian scholars analyzed the economic and trade relations between their respective countries and China, and believed that the voices from the partner countries will inspire domestic academic circles and even all sectors of society. The "16+1 cooperation" and the "Belt and Road" construction are the two major initiatives put forward by China. Regarding the relationship between the two, the two Chinese scholars agreed that the "16+1 cooperation" has a pioneering demonstration significance for the construction of the "Belt and Road" and will provide useful enlightenment for the construction of the "Belt and Road", and the promotion of the "Belt and Road" construction has opened up greater development space for the "16+1 cooperation". Regarding the "16+1 cooperation", the three Chinese scholars discussed the differences within the 16 CEE countries and between China and CEE countries, the "precision" of cooperation, local cooperation, and free trade area cooperation. Croatian scholars talked about his understanding of China's foreign policy towards the Western Balkans from the perspective of "16+1 cooperation". Experts and scholars also look beyond Central and Eastern Europe and look to the wider world, Ukraine's views on the "16+1" and the "Belt and Road" and the possibility of participation, Turkey's neo-Ottomanism and the "Belt and Road" relationship, the EU's Asian regional strategy and the "Belt and Road" docking have become their concerns. As an "infrastructure" for deepening state-to-state relations and a "people's project" 2951114 promoting people-to-people friendship, people-to-people exchanges are an important part of the "16+1 cooperation" and the construction of the "Belt and Road". Experts and scholars not only discussed the ways, goals, influencing factors and effective practices of China's people-to-people diplomacy with Central and Eastern European countries, but also explained in detail the areas that are less covered in the "16+1" and "Belt and Road" studies, such as film exchanges, language policies and educational cooperation. Former Polish Ambassador to China Kshavili Burski's description of Chinese culture in Poland reflects the thinking of Chinese scholars on his cultural diplomacy activities, and jointly paints a vivid picture of people-to-people exchanges between China and Poland. The opportunities and risks of cooperation between China and CEEC countries have been highly valued by Chinese scholars, and their research includes not only the risk analysis of the "16+1" in terms of understanding, political cooperation and economic cooperation at the macro level, but also the political risk assessment of China's investment in CEEC at the meso level, and the summary of the opportunities and risks of cooperation with a country, Macedonia, and the construction of a cooperation project - the Hungarian section of the Hungarian-Serbian railway at the micro level. The countermeasures proposed on this basis will help China seize opportunities and avoid risks in cooperation with Central and Eastern European countries. Thank you to the leaders and colleagues of the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, for their strong support; Thanks to the editorial and publishing team of China Social Sciences Press for their tremendous work; I would also like to thank the authors of the collection of papers, including highly respected predecessors, emerging talents, Chinese scholars engaged in CEE studies, and experts from Central and Eastern European countries, as well as Russia and Ukraine, who have different styles and views, but all of them have made suggestions for promoting the "16+1 cooperation" and the "Belt and Road" construction with a sincere attitude, profound learning and rigorous academic style. This collection of papers is not the pinnacle of "16+1" and "Belt and Road" research, let alone a panacea for solving all problems in "16+1 cooperation" and "Belt and Road" construction, and due to the limitation of the level of editors, omissions and improprieties are inevitable, it only objectively reflects the thoughts of some experts and scholars at home and abroad on "16+1" and "Belt and Road", and only hopes to promote the research results of the academic community to the society and serve the society. The "16+1" and "Belt and Road" are in the ascendant, and the study of them will continue to deepen, and we will continue to work hard. Gao Ge August 2017（AI翻译）