《中国食品安全网络舆情发展报告（2015）》（以下简称《报告》）是江南大学江苏省食品安全研究基地第四次出版的关于食品安全网络舆情的年度报告。在过去三个年度出版的基础上，继续以核心主体——网民为切入点，探讨食品安全网络舆情的演化机理与监管引导策略，并引入大数据与计算机模拟仿真等理论方法，以提高研究方法的先进性与研究结论的科学性。导论通过介绍研究背景、研究主线、研究方法、研究内容与主要结论等方面的内容，简要、全面地展现本《报告》的整体概况。

一 研究背景

食品安全直接关系公众的生命健康，是关乎国计民生的重大问题。政府相关部门高度重视，将食品安全风险治理工作提升到前所未有的高度。在政府以及社会各界共同努力下，我国的食品安全状况总体上呈现出“整体稳定、趋势向好”的良好态势，但世界上食品安全不可能实现“零”风险，风险始终存在，其治理是一项复杂的系统工程，食品安全问题难以在短期内完全解决。2014年7月，作为麦当劳、必胜客等知名快餐企业的肉类供应商上海福喜公司被曝光涉嫌使用过期变质肉品加工快餐原材料，消息一经曝出，舆论哗然，公众纷纷在网络上发表评论，表达对食品安全状况的不满与担忧。或许正是因为如此，在食品安全状况逐渐向好的现实情况下，公众对食品安全状况的评价却并不高，甚至认为变得更糟糕。这种反差必定会对政府的公信力产生负面影响，从而降低政府食品安全风险治理工作的效能，形成恶性循环。

既然食品安全风险治理是一项长期工作，食品安全事件的发生短期内难以避免，那么是否可以对食品安全风险治理过程中所发生的食品安全事件置之不理？是否可以对公众的认知偏差不闻不问？当然不可以。民以食为天，食品安全关系人民的生命健康，影响国家的和谐稳定。虽然现阶段政府的食品安全风险治理工作可能难以获得所有公众的认同，但随着政府与社会的不懈努力，食品安全状况的不断好转，必将赢得越来越多公众的认同，这是食品安全风险治理必须经历的过程。公众是食品安全风险治理的重要参与主体。必须充分发挥公众的力量才能事半功倍，而消除公众对食品安全的认知偏差、促使公众客观、理性地认识与评价食品安全问题是调动公众积极性、引导公众科学高效地参与食品安全风险治理的重要前提。食品安全网络舆情是公众参与食品安全监管的重要平台，是连接政府、媒体、企业等舆情参与主体的重要纽带，因此在进一步加强食品安全风险治理的同时，一方面，需要继续深入分析食品安全网络舆情中公众的舆情参与行为特征以及对食品安全状况产生认知偏差的主要原因；另一方面，需要研究食品安全网络舆情的演变机理以及公众舆情参与行为的引导机制。

二 研究主线

网民是食品安全网络舆情的核心参与主体，政府、媒体、企业等通过发布食品安全网络信息影响网民的认知与行为，从而推动食品安全网络舆情的发展。本《报告》在2012年、2013年、2014年研究工作的基础上，继续以“食品安全网络舆情的现实发展状况与特征分析—基于网民视角的食品安全网络舆情实证研究—食品安全网络舆情的演变机理与监管引导机制理论研究”为研究主线，进一步探讨食品安全网络舆情的现实发展状况、演变机理、监管与引导机制等重要问题。与以往研究不同的是，本《报告》考虑了企业在食品安全网络舆情中的作用及传播策略，并引入大数据以及计算机模拟仿真等理论与方法，力求更加全面、科学地探寻食品安全网络舆情的发展规律。具体来说，本《报告》主要从如下三个视角展现食品安全网络舆情的现实特征与演变规律：

（1）收集与整理2014年主要的食品安全网络舆情，从舆情热度、舆情性质等方面分析本年度食品安全网络舆情的总体特征，并基于食品行业划分，探讨各食品行业的舆情发展状况。

（2）在全国范围开展食品安全网络舆情网民行为问卷调查，并基于调研数据，分析网民对食品安全网络舆情的认知与评价，以及舆情参与行为的特征与影响因素。鉴于问卷调查具有一定的局限性，本《报告》利用网络爬虫工具，通过抓取与分析食品安全网络舆情信息，研究网民舆情信息传播行为。

（3）利用社会学、传播学、计算机科学、管理学、科技哲学等多个学科的理论与方法，对食品安全网络舆情的演化机理、监管与引导机制进行理论研究。具体内容包括运用传播学理论研究企业在食品安全事件中的传播策略；运用计算机模拟仿真研究食品安全网络舆情的传播机理；运用大数据理论探讨食品安全网络舆情的监管策略等。

三 研究方法

本《报告》主要采用如下研究方法：

（一）文献归纳法

本《报告》的研究建立在对大量研究文献的回顾与分析基础上，这些重要研究文献不仅有助于追踪国内外相关领域的研究前沿与热点问题，了解相关问题的研究进展，还为相关问题的深入研究提供了丰富的思路与方法支撑。此外，国家相关部门与研究机构的统计数据与研究结论以及重要媒体的新闻报道也为本《报告》的撰写提供了坚实的数据与案例基础。

（二）调查研究法

调查研究方法的使用是本《报告》的基本特色之一。为了持续追踪与研究食品安全网络舆情网民的行为特征，研究团队在前三年问卷调查基础上对问卷进行了重新设计与优化，且在调查地点的选择上尽可能与之前保持一致。2015年2—3月，在全国范围内选取涵盖我国的东部、西部、南部、北部、中部地区的12个省区共48个不同规模的城市，针对网民对食品安全的评价、网民在食品安全网络舆情中的非理性行为等问题展开实地调研。

（三）案例分析法

案例分析法仍然是本《报告》重要的研究方法，如第八章以2014年的热点食品安全网络舆情——上海福喜事件为例分析企业在危机传播情境中的传播策略；第十三章以转基因食品安全问题争论为例分析公众对转基因食品安全的认知以及转基因食品中的伦理问题。案例分析法的运用有助于提高本《报告》研究内容的可读性与研究结论的可信度。

（四）模型计量法

为了提高研究过程的严谨性以及研究结论的科学性，本《报告》除了运用定性分析方法，还针对部分问题采用数学建模以及计算机模拟仿真的研究方法，例如，运用计算模拟仿真的方法研究食品安全网络舆情的传播机理；运用马尔可夫链模型研究食品安全网络舆情的热度预测等。

四 研究内容

《中国食品安全网络舆情发展报告（2015）》共十五章，主要包括食品安全网络舆情发展现状（上篇）、食品安全网络舆情实证分析（中篇）和食品安全网络舆情理论研究（下篇）三大部分。其中，第一章和第二章为上篇，主要分析2014年食品安全网络舆情的总体状况、行业网络舆情的发展现状以及舆情热点事件的诱发因素与生成特征；中篇由四章构成，主要运用实证分析方法研究食品安全网络舆情网民的行为特征，探讨舆情监管与引导的机制与方法；下篇由九章构成，主要运用社会学、传播学、计算机科学等学科的理论与方法，探讨食品安全网络舆情的演化机理以及监管与引导机制，并通过相关文献的整理与分析，探讨食品安全网络舆情的研究现状及发展趋势。

（一）上篇

上篇“食品安全网络舆情发展现状”包括两章内容，分别为：

第一章 2014年食品安全网络舆情总体分析。在收集与整理2014年主要的食品安全网络舆情的基础上计算网络舆情的热度，根据热度对舆情事件进行分类，并进一步分析超热度及高热度食品安全网络舆情的性质；比较2014年与2013年的主要热点网络舆情，分析当前食品安全网络舆情的总体特征与发展趋势。

第二章 2014年食品安全网络舆情行业研究。以行业划分为视角，论述肉制品、油制品、乳制品、白酒与饮料等食品行业网络舆情的整体状况，并深入分析各行业典型的食品安全网络舆情，探讨食品行业网络舆情发展特征。

（二）中篇

中篇“食品安全网络舆情实证分析”包括四章内容，分别为：

第三章 食品安全网络舆情公众调查报告。本章以食品安全网络舆情的核心参与主体——网民为研究对象，通过对涵盖我国东部、西部、南部、北部以及中部12个省份48个不同城市的2640名受访网民的问卷调查，深入分析网民对食品安全的关注、网民在食品安全网络舆情中的非理性行为、网民对网购食品可靠性与安全性评价等问题。

第四章 食品安全网络舆情中网民非理性行为实证研究。在复杂的网络环境中，食品安全知识相对匮乏的网民在面对专业性强且成因复杂的食品安全事件，往往处于有限理性的状态，容易采取非理性行为，从而造成舆情的爆发，对食品市场的健康发展产生负面影响，甚至危害社会和谐稳定。本章基于第三章的问卷调查数据，运用聚类分析等方法，研究食品安全网络舆情中网民的非理性行为及其与网民个体特征之间的关系。

第五章 网购食品风险感知影响因素实证研究。近年来，随着网购热度不断升温，网购食品已成为食品消费的重要方式，其所暴露的食品安全风险问题日益显著。本章基于第三章的问卷调查数据，研究消费者在网购食品过程中的风险感知，探寻影响消费者网购行为的重要因素，为商家提高服务水平，降低消费者的感知风险，引导网购食品行业的健康发展提供理论支撑。

第六章 食品安全网络舆情中网民微博转发行为影响因素研究。问卷调查数据具有一定的局限性。本章以上海福喜事件为例，利用网络爬虫工具，采集新浪微博中相关微博数据，并运用多项Logistic回归模型展开分析，探讨网民在食品安全网络舆情中转发行为特征与主要影响因素。

（三）下篇

下篇“食品安全网络舆情理论研究”包括九章内容，分别为：

第七章 食品安全网络舆情与网络民间社会的生长——以“转基因食品与安全争议”为例。本章以2014年“转基因食品与安全争议”事件为例，分析民间力量如何通过制造或参与舆情讨论，运用民意影响转基因技术应用的政府决策；分析中国网络民间社会发展所面临的困境，探寻食品安全事务协调合作、共同治理的有效路径。

第八章 企业危机传播情境中的传播策略和效果研究。在食品安全事件中，相关食品企业作为涉事主体，对食品安全网络舆情发展产生重要作用。本章以上海福喜事件为例，运用情境式危机传播理论分析食品安全事件中企业所面临的危机情境，探讨企业的危机传播策略及策略效果。

第九章 食品安全微博舆情传播的社会网络分析——以媒体微博为例。信息传播主要通过社会关系进行。其中，媒体微博基于转发等关系形成信息传播网络，网络结构决定信息传播效果。本章运用社会网络分析方法，从网络整体结构和内部子结构两个层次定量研究2014年食品安全微博舆情传播网络的结构特征。

第十章 食品安全网络舆情传播仿真研究。本章在考虑信息真伪基础上，通过分析信息、网民以及传播网络等食品安全网络舆情传播过程的影响因素，构建舆情传播仿真模型，并运用MATLAB进行计算机仿真研究，探讨食品安全网络舆情的传播机理。

第十一章 食品安全网络舆情风险评估模型研究。本章通过层次分析法构建食品安全网络舆情风险评估指标体系，运用基于中心点三角白化权函数的灰色聚类建模技术，构建食品安全网络舆情风险评估模型，为政府监控食品安全网络舆情提供理论支撑。

第十二章 基于马尔可夫链的食品安全舆情热度预测。本章基于2014年食品安全热点舆情事件，搜集舆情事件在主要微博、主流食品安全论坛中的发帖量、转载量以及回复量，运用熵权法计算评价指标权重，采用马尔可夫链构造状态转移矩阵，预测食品安全舆情事件的趋势变化区间。

第十三章 转基因食品安全认知与伦理挑战。本章论述了公众对转基因食品安全的认知，包括公众对转基因食品认知的现状、转基因食品安全问题的争论以及产生争论的原因，分析了公众认知转基因食品的渠道所存在的问题，进而探讨了转基因食品中的伦理问题。

第十四章 网络舆情大数据与食品安全政府监管创新。本章在论述我国食品安全网络舆情监管意义基础上，分析基于互联网的食品安全监管的发展趋势，探讨如何更好地利用网络舆情数据推动政府监管创新，并围绕大数据分析方法，分析大数据背景下网络舆情数据在食品安全监管领域的应用前景。

第十五章 网络舆情与食品安全网络舆情研究热点。本章在检索与整理我国近年来网络舆情以及食品安全网络舆情的相关研究文献的基础上，分析相关研究领域的研究热点，指出食品安全网络舆情引导与发展需要重点关注的内容。

五 主要结论

主要介绍《报告》中最重要的研究性结论，以便读者能够便捷、清晰地认识2014年我国食品安全网络舆情的发展概况。

（一）网民行为、网络意见领袖、舆情危机与风险控制等是近年来国内食品安全网络舆情研究焦点

利用CNKI中的中国知网期刊、特色期刊、博士学位论文和硕士学位论文、国内会议论文、学术辑刊数据库检索与分析食品安全网络舆情研究文献，指出网民行为、网络意见领袖、舆情危机与风险控制、舆情构成体系、传播模型与引导机制等是我国近年来食品安全网络舆情研究主要关注的问题，提出“重视食品安全舆情引导的策略机制”;“完善舆情监测体系，提高舆情研判能力”;“加强信息透明度，尽量避免信息不对称，提升政府的公信力”;“发挥意见领袖作用，传播正能量”;“防止虚假信息的发布和传播”;“新媒体和传统媒体互动与互补，实行舆情全方位立体化引导”等是引导与发展食品安全网络舆情所要重点关注的内容。

（二）舆情事件涉及面更广，转基因仍是关注焦点

2014年发生的舆情事件不是只局限于一个行业中的一个企业或是某个地区，而基本反映了整个行业中大部分企业或全国普遍地区的共同问题，如“毒豆芽”、“毒腐竹”、“工业盐冒充食用盐”在全国多个地区都有发现，桶装水不合格情况涉及多批次、多品牌，多款面粉均被曝出含有增筋剂，多品牌功能性饮料含有二类精神药物等。此外，2013年、2014年对于转基因食品的关注总热度都达千万以上，是热度最高的舆情事件，对于转基因食品的安全争议继续，并且对于进行转基因食品的标识以保证群众知情权与选择权的呼声不减。虽然对于转基因食品的争议一直存在，但是，进一步发展转基因食品是不可避免的趋势，因此人们对于转基因食品的关注度也会一直保持在相对的热度。

（三）大部分受访网民易受未经证实的负面信息的影响

调查数据表明，网络中有关食品安全的未经证实的负面信息对受访网民的食品安全信心有较大影响。而有关“转基因食品食用行为”的调查结果也表明，对于安全性问题尚无定论的食品，负面信息对受访网民的影响明显大于正面信息所产生的影响。这可能是因为食品安全问题直接关系生命健康安全，公众在面对相关负面信息时往往持有“宁可信其有，不可信其无”的心态，这也可以从侧面解释为何虽然我国食品安全状况“总体稳定、趋势向好”，但公众对目前食品安全形势评价不高。在未来的食品安全网络舆情监管与引导过程中，一方面需要进一步加大打击造谣、传谣行为的力度，尽可能减少网络中的虚假信息，努力净化网络环境；另一方面需要发挥食品安全专家以及食品安全专业机构在食品安全风险交流过程中的积极作用，通过风险交流培养与提高公众对食品安全网络信息的甄别能力，避免公众遭受虚假信息的误导，促使公众客观地认识与评价我国食品安全状况，并引导公众更加科学高效地利用食品安全网络信息，理性地参与食品安全网络舆情。

（四）网民网购食品的风险感知受到诸多因素影响

食品安全知识了解程度对网民网购食品的风险感知有重要影响，应通过媒体宣传、专业知识讲座等方式进一步普及食品安全知识，提升公众食品安全素养，引导公众正确认识与科学应对食品安全风险。消耗时间过多、售后服务问题、私人信息安全、商家诚信问题是影响网民网购食品风险感知的重要因素，应进一步提高信息搜寻与购物程序的人性化，系统优化网购食品的流程，减少消费者在购物过程中所消耗的时间；构建覆盖面广、响应及时、专业高效的售后服务体系，加强售后服务保障；运用先进的信息安全技术，并制定完善的信息安全保障制度，防止消费者个人私密信息泄露、丢失或被非法利用，保护消费者在整个购物过程中私人信息的安全。此外，通过设计科学合理的奖惩制度，引导商家诚信经营，降低消费者因商家的不诚信或欺诈行为而导致的损失。网民对网络评价的关注度及信任度也是影响网购食品风险感知的重要因素，应进一步完善网购食品的网络评价制度，一方面通过打击不正当竞争行为抑制网络评价中的虚假信息，包括商家通过威逼利诱的方式逼迫消费者给予不符合实际的评价以及竞争对手的恶意评价；另一方面引导消费者客观、理性地进行评价，为其他消费者提供有效的选择依据。

（五）发帖者微博的粉丝数、微博数、认证情况等因素影响网民的微博转发行为

发帖者微博的粉丝数与微博数是影响其微博被转发次数的重要因素，且存在正相关关系。发帖者微博的认证情况对其微博的被转发次数有影响。其中，对于仅有主帖内容的微博（类型Ⅰ微博），无认证的微博比官方认证的微博更容易被转发；对于转发了他人内容的微博（类型Ⅱ微博），官方认证的微博比达人认证以及个人认证的微博更容易被转发。微博内容是否有链接影响发帖者的微博被转发次数。对于仅有主帖内容的微博，若发帖者的微博中无链接，则其微博更容易被转发；而对于转发了他人内容的微博，若被转发者的微博中有链接，则发帖者的微博更容易被转发。对于仅有主帖内容的微博，发帖者微博内容的情感倾向对其微博被转发次数有影响，且呈现批评情感倾向的微博最容易被转发，中立情感倾向次之，同情情感倾向最次；发帖者微博内容是否有视频对其微博被转发次数也有影响，且若微博内容有视频，更容易被转发。对于转发了他人内容的微博，被转发者微博的粉丝数与发帖者的微博被转发次数负相关，而被转发者的微博被转发次数与发帖者的微博被转发次数正相关。

（六）媒体微博的公信力、权威性以及与食品安全事件的相关度是判断其是否为核心节点或意见领袖的重要标准

通过研究由“福喜肉”、“台湾地沟油”、“病死猪”、“毒鸭血”、“毒腐竹”、“毒粉丝”以及“毒胶囊”等具有代表性的食品安全舆情事件所构造的2014年食品安全微博舆情传播网络可以发现，在食品安全微博舆情传播过程中，尽管“青岛交通广播FM897”等普通媒体微博可以便捷地获取食品安全事件信息，但是其传播范围局限于狭小的媒体子群。而《人民日报》等媒体微博作为舆情信息传播的核心节点，在舆情信息传播中扮演重要角色。这些媒体微博用户的公信力与权威性较高，拥有大量的媒体粉丝，其发布的信息能够引起普通媒体微博的重视与转发，其舆情传播行为、舆情态度等在很大程度上影响舆情信息传播速度、整体走向等。然而，不局限于媒体的公信力和权威性，媒体微博与食品安全的相关度同样也是判断媒体是否为核心节点或意见领袖的主要标准。以“看看新闻网”为代表的食品安全事件关联媒体微博（“福喜肉”事件）是食品安全微博舆情的“风暴眼”所在，扮演着不可忽视的重要角色，在一定程度上决定了舆情信息形成、传播的初始规模。

（七）公共参与在食品安全事件中发挥重要作用

转基因食品安全性问题至今仍为人们所争论。除了公众的科学素养以及理解科学的能力有待提升之外，信息不公开、信息不对等情况也是现实中争论的问题之所在，传统媒体与新媒体在信息的传播过程中充当着重要的角色，但是，媒体本身对信息的准确性、全面性、真实性的把握也存在问题，因此，网络舆情是转基因食品安全性争论中备受关注的一个层面，也是值得深究的一个问题。公众参与在一些社会公共事务中起到了积极的作用，在转基因食品争论中，值得学习的就是丹麦的共识会议。公众参与在丹麦的转基因技术的共识会议中，提醒科学家注意转基因技术中的伦理问题以及社会维度的其他问题，这对于科学研究来说是很好的补充。但是，需要注意的是，即使公众可以参与，其主观能动性的发挥也要受到科学合理性的限制，公众参与也会呈现出只看眼前利益，或是受鼓动的盲目参与，便会对事情的发展产生负面影响。因此，在公众参与过程中，需要把握好科学合理性与主观能动性之间的张力。

（八）大数据为食品安全监管带来了机遇与挑战

每天有数以万计的信息产生，数据的规模呈现爆炸式增长，这为食品安全监管带来了机遇与挑战。一方面，互联网上的海量数据和资源具有巨大的潜在价值，如果可以快速识别关键信息，并进行有效分析，有助于更快地感知到食品安全风险，向公众发出预警。但是，海量数据的获取和分析并非易事，信息发布的源头纷繁复杂，一定程度上造成了信息管理的混乱，不确定信息和虚假信息的传播难以控制，为谣言传播提供了丰富的土壤。另一方面，社交媒体为公众参与食品安全监督提供了便捷的平台，促进了社会监督力量的发展，但是，网络舆情中的不理性声音也给政府监管带来了很大困扰，网民中负面情绪的传播给社会稳定埋下了一些潜在风险。如何有效利用海量信息提高政府监管能力，并引导社会监督发挥积极作用，是“社会共治”理念下，食品安全监管创新亟须解决的重要问题。

The China Food Safety Network Public Opinion Development Report (2015) (hereinafter referred to as the Report) is the fourth annual report on food safety network public opinion published by Jiangnan University Jiangsu Food Safety Research Base. On the basis of the publication in the past three years, we will continue to take the core subject-netizens as the starting point to discuss the evolution mechanism and regulatory guidance strategy of food safety network public opinion, and introduce theoretical methods such as big data and computer simulation to improve the advanced research methods and the scientific conclusions of the research. The introduction briefly and comprehensively presents the overall overview of the report by introducing the research background, research main line, research methods, research content and main conclusions. I. Research Background: Food safety is directly related to the life and health of the public, and is a major issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood. Relevant government departments attach great importance to raising food safety risk management to an unprecedented height. With the joint efforts of the government and all sectors of society, China's food safety situation has generally shown a good trend of "overall stability and good trend", but the world's food safety cannot achieve "zero" risk, the risk always exists, its governance is a complex system engineering, food safety problems are difficult to completely solve in the short term. In July 2014, Shanghai Fuxi, a meat supplier to well-known fast food companies such as McDonald's and Pizza Hut, was exposed to be suspected of using expired spoiled meat to process fast food raw materials. Perhaps because of this, in the reality that the food safety situation is gradually improving, the public's evaluation of the food safety situation is not high, or even worse. This contrast will inevitably have a negative impact on the government's credibility, thereby reducing the effectiveness of the government's food safety risk management work, forming a vicious circle. Since food safety risk management is a long-term work and the occurrence of food safety incidents is difficult to avoid in the short term, can the food safety incidents that occur in the process of food safety risk management be ignored? Is it possible to turn a blind eye to the public's cognitive biases? Of course not. Food safety is related to people's lives and health, and affects the harmony and stability of the country. Although the government's food safety risk management work may be difficult to obtain the recognition of all the public at this stage, with the unremitting efforts of the government and society, the continuous improvement of the food safety situation will surely win more and more public recognition, which is the process that food safety risk management must go through. The public is an important participant in food safety risk governance. It is necessary to give full play to the power of the public to achieve twice the result with half the effort, and eliminate the public's cognitive bias on food safety, promote the public to objectively and rationally understand and evaluate food safety issues, and guide the public to participate in food safety risk management scientifically and efficiently. Food safety network public opinion is an important platform for the public to participate in food safety supervision, and is an important link connecting the government, media, enterprises and other public opinion participants, so while further strengthening food safety risk governance, on the one hand, it is necessary to continue to deeply analyze the characteristics of public opinion participation behavior in food safety network public opinion and the main reasons for cognitive bias in food safety status; On the other hand, it is necessary to study the evolution mechanism of public opinion on food safety networks and the guidance mechanism of public opinion participation. Second, the main netizens are the core participants of food safety network public opinion, and the government, media, enterprises, etc. influence the cognition and behavior of netizens by releasing food safety network information, thereby promoting the development of food safety network public opinion. On the basis of the research work in 2012, 2013 and 2014, this report continues to take "the actual development status and characteristics analysis of food safety network public opinion - empirical research on food safety network public opinion based on the perspective of netizens-theoretical research on the evolution mechanism and supervision guidance mechanism of food safety network public opinion" as the main research line, and further discusses the actual development status, evolution mechanism, supervision and guidance mechanism of food safety network public opinion. Different from previous studies, this report considers the role and communication strategy of enterprises in food safety network public opinion, and introduces theories and methods such as big data and computer simulation to explore the development law of food safety network public opinion more comprehensively and scientifically. Specifically, this "Report" mainly presents the actual characteristics and evolution of food safety network public opinion from the following three perspectives: (1) Collect and sort out the main food safety network public opinion in 2014, analyze the overall characteristics of this year's food safety network public opinion from the aspects of public opinion heat and public opinion nature, and discuss the development of public opinion in each food industry based on the division of food industry. (2) Carry out a nationwide questionnaire survey on food safety online public opinion netizens' behavior, and analyze netizens' cognition and evaluation of food safety online public opinion, as well as the characteristics and influencing factors of public opinion participation behavior, based on the survey data. In view of the limitations of the questionnaire survey, this report uses web crawler tools to study the dissemination behavior of netizens' public opinion information by scraping and analyzing online public opinion information on food safety. (3) Using the theories and methods of sociology, communication, computer science, management, philosophy of science and technology and other disciplines, the evolution mechanism, supervision and guidance mechanism of food safety network public opinion are theoretically studied. Specifically, the content includes the use of communication theory to study the communication strategy of enterprises in food safety incidents; Using computer simulation to study the propagation mechanism of public opinion on food safety network; Using big data theory, the supervision strategy of food safety network public opinion was discussed. 3. Research Methods The "Report" mainly adopts the following research methods: (1) The research of the "Report" is based on the review and analysis of a large number of research literature, which not only helps to track the research frontiers and hot issues in related fields at home and abroad, understand the research progress of related issues, but also provides rich ideas and method support for the in-depth study of related issues. In addition, the statistical data and research conclusions of relevant national departments and research institutions, as well as news reports of important media, also provide a solid data and case basis for the writing of this report. (2) Investigation and research method: The use of investigation and research methods is one of the basic features of this Report. In order to continuously track and study the behavior characteristics of food safety network public opinion netizens, the research team redesigned and optimized the questionnaire on the basis of the questionnaire survey in the previous three years, and the selection of the survey location was as consistent as possible with the previous one. From February to March 2015, a total of 48 cities of different sizes in 12 provinces and autonomous regions covering the eastern, western, southern, northern and central regions of China were selected nationwide, and field research was carried out on the evaluation of food safety by netizens and the irrational behavior of netizens in the public opinion of food safety online. (3) Case analysis methodCase analysis method is still an important research method in this report, such as Chapter 8 takes the hot food safety network public opinion in 2014 - Shanghai Fuxi incident as an example to analyze the communication strategy of enterprises in the context of crisis communication; Chapter 13 uses the GM food safety debate as an example to analyze the public's perception of GM food safety and the ethical issues in GM food. The use of the case analysis method helps to improve the readability of the research content of this report and the credibility of the research conclusions. (4) Model econometric methodIn order to improve the rigor of the research process and the scientific nature of the research conclusions, this report not only uses qualitative analysis methods, but also adopts mathematical modeling and computer simulation research methods for some problems, for example, using computational simulation methods to study the propagation mechanism of public opinion on food safety networks; The Markov chain model is used to study the heat prediction of food safety network public opinion. 4. Research content "China Food Safety Network Public Opinion Development Report (2015)" consists of 15 chapters, mainly including three parts: the development status of food safety network public opinion (Part I), the empirical analysis of food safety network public opinion (Part I), and the theoretical research on food safety network public opinion (Part II). Among them, the first and second chapters are the first part, which mainly analyzes the overall situation of food safety network public opinion, the development status of industry network public opinion, and the inducing factors and generation characteristics of public opinion hot events in 2014. The middle part consists of four chapters, which mainly use empirical analysis methods to study the behavioral characteristics of public opinion netizens on food safety networks, and discuss the mechanisms and methods of public opinion supervision and guidance. The second part consists of nine chapters, which mainly use the theories and methods of sociology, communication, computer science and other disciplines to discuss the evolution mechanism and supervision and guidance mechanism of food safety network public opinion, and discuss the research status and development trend of food safety network public opinion through the collation and analysis of relevant literature. (1) The first part of "The Development Status of Food Safety Network Public Opinion" includes two chapters, namely: Chapter 1 Overall Analysis of Food Safety Network Public Opinion in 2014. On the basis of collecting and sorting out the main food safety network public opinion in 2014, the popularity of online public opinion was calculated, the public opinion events were classified according to the popularity, and the nature of super-hot and high-heat food safety network public opinion was further analyzed. Compare the main hot network public opinion in 2014 and 2013, and analyze the overall characteristics and development trend of the current food safety network public opinion. Chapter II: 2014 Food Safety Network Public Opinion Industry Research. From the perspective of industry division, this paper discusses the overall situation of online public opinion in the food industry such as meat products, oil products, dairy products, liquor and beverages, and deeply analyzes the typical food safety network public opinion of various industries, and discusses the development characteristics of online public opinion in the food industry. (2) The middle part "Empirical Analysis of Food Safety Network Public Opinion" includes four chapters, namely: Chapter 3 Food Safety Network Public Opinion Public Survey Report. This chapter takes netizens, the core participant of food safety online public opinion, as the research object, and analyzes in depth the concerns of netizens about food safety, their irrational behavior in food safety online public opinion, and the reliability and safety evaluation of food purchased online by netizens through a questionnaire survey covering 48 different cities in 12 provinces in the eastern, western, southern, northern and central provinces of China. Chapter IV: An Empirical Study on the Irrational Behavior of Netizens in Food Safety Network Public Opinion. In the complex network environment, netizens with relatively little knowledge of food safety are often in a state of limited rationality in the face of highly professional and complex food safety incidents, and are prone to irrational behavior, resulting in the outbreak of public opinion, negatively affecting the healthy development of the food market, and even endangering social harmony and stability. Based on the questionnaire survey data in Chapter 3, this chapter uses cluster analysis and other methods to study the irrational behavior of netizens in food safety network public opinion and its relationship with the individual characteristics of netizens. Chapter V: Empirical Research on the Influencing Factors of Risk Perception of Online Food Shopping. In recent years, with the increasing popularity of online shopping, online food shopping has become an important way of food consumption, and the food safety risks exposed by it have become increasingly significant. Based on the questionnaire survey data in Chapter 3, this chapter studies consumers' risk perception in the process of online food shopping, explores the important factors affecting consumers' online shopping behavior, and provides theoretical support for merchants to improve service levels, reduce consumers' perceived risks, and guide the healthy development of online food industry. Chapter VI: Research on Influencing Factors of Netizens' Weibo Forwarding Behavior in Food Safety Online Public Opinion. Survey data has certain limitations. This chapter takes the Shanghai Fuxi incident as an example, uses web crawler tools to collect relevant microblog data in Sina Weibo, and uses a number of logistic regression models to analyze the characteristics and main influencing factors of netizens' forwarding behavior in food safety online public opinion. (3) The second part, "Research on the Theory of Public Opinion on Food Safety Network", includes nine chapters, namely: Chapter 7 Food Safety Network Public Opinion and the Growth of Online Civil Society - Taking "Genetically Modified Food and Safety Controversy" as an example. This chapter takes the 2014 "GM Food and Safety Controversy" incident as an example to analyze how civil forces use public opinion to influence government decision-making on the application of GM technology by creating or participating in public opinion discussions. Analyze the difficulties faced by the development of China's online civil society, and explore effective ways for coordination, cooperation and joint governance of food safety affairs. Chapter 8: Research on Communication Strategies and Effects in the Context of Corporate Crisis Communication. In food safety incidents, relevant food enterprises, as the subjects involved, play an important role in the development of public opinion on food safety networks. Taking the Shanghai Fuxi incident as an example, this chapter uses situational crisis communication theory to analyze the crisis situation faced by enterprises in food safety incidents, and discusses the crisis communication strategies and strategic effects of enterprises. Chapter Nine: Social Network Analysis of Public Opinion Dissemination on Food Safety Weibo: Taking Media Weibo as an Example. Information dissemination takes place mainly through social relations. Among them, media microblogs form an information dissemination network based on forwarding and other relationships, and the network structure determines the effect of information dissemination. This chapter uses social network analysis methods to quantitatively study the structural characteristics of the food safety microblog public opinion dissemination network in 2014 from the two levels of overall network structure and internal substructure. Chapter X: Research on Simulation of Public Opinion Dissemination on Food Safety Network. Based on the consideration of the authenticity of information, this chapter analyzes the influencing factors of the public opinion dissemination process of food safety network, such as information, netizens and communication networks, constructs a simulation model of public opinion communication, and uses MATLAB to conduct computer simulation research to explore the propagation mechanism of public opinion on food safety network. Chapter 11: Research on the Model of Public Opinion Risk Assessment of Food Safety Network. This chapter constructs the food safety network public opinion risk assessment index system through analytic hierarchy method, and uses the gray cluster modeling technology based on the central point triangle albino weight function to construct a food safety network public opinion risk assessment model, which provides theoretical support for the government to monitor food safety network public opinion. Chapter 12: Food Safety Public Opinion Prediction Based on Markov Chain. Based on the hot public opinion events of food safety in 2014, this chapter collects the number of posts, reprints and replies of public opinion events in major Weibo and mainstream food safety forums, uses the entropy weight method to calculate the weight of evaluation indicators, and uses Markov chain to construct a state transition matrix to predict the trend change range of food safety public opinion events. Chapter 13: Cognitive and Ethical Challenges of GM Food Safety. This chapter discusses the public's perception of GM food safety, including the current status of public awareness of GM food, the debate on GM food safety and the reasons for the controversy, analyzes the problems existing in the channels of public awareness of GM food, and then discusses the ethical issues in GM food. Chapter 14: Online Public Opinion, Big Data, and Food Safety Government Regulatory Innovation. Based on the significance of China's food safety online public opinion supervision, this chapter analyzes the development trend of Internet-based food safety supervision, discusses how to better use network public opinion data to promote government regulatory innovation, and analyzes the application prospects of online public opinion data in the field of food safety supervision under the background of big data analysis around big data analysis methods. Chapter 15: Research Hotspots on Online Public Opinion and Food Safety Online Public Opinion. Based on retrieving and sorting out the relevant research literature on Internet public opinion and food safety network public opinion in China in recent years, this chapter analyzes the research hotspots in related research fields and points out the content that needs to be focused on in the guidance and development of food safety network public opinion. V. The main conclusions mainly introduce the most important research conclusions in the Report, so that readers can easily and clearly understand the development of China's food safety network public opinion in 2014. (1) Netizen behavior, online opinion leaders, public opinion crisis and risk control, etc. are the focus of domestic food safety network public opinion research in recent years, using CNKI journals, featured journals, doctoral dissertations and master's degree theses, domestic conference papers, academic journal databases to retrieve and analyze food safety network public opinion research literature, pointing out netizen behavior, network opinion leaders, public opinion crisis and risk control, public opinion composition system, The communication model and guidance mechanism are the main concerns of China's food safety network public opinion research in recent years, and the "strategic mechanism of attaching importance to food safety public opinion guidance" is proposed. "Improve the public opinion monitoring system and improve the ability to study and judge public opinion"; "Strengthen information transparency, try to avoid information asymmetry, and enhance the credibility of the government"; "Play the role of opinion leader and spread positive energy"; "to prevent the publication and dissemination of false information"; "Interaction and complementarity between new media and traditional media, and the implementation of all-round three-dimensional guidance of public opinion" are the contents to be focused on guiding and developing public opinion on food safety networks. (2) Public opinion events involve a wider range, GMO is still the focus of attention The public opinion events that occurred in 2014 are not limited to one enterprise or a certain region in an industry, but basically reflect the common problems of most enterprises in the entire industry or the common areas of the country, such as "poisonous bean sprouts", "poisonous rotten bamboo", "industrial salt pretending to be edible salt" have been found in many regions of the country, bottled water unqualified situations involve multiple batches, multiple brands, and a variety of flour have been exposed to contain reinforcements, Multi-brand functional drinks contain Class II psychotropic drugs. In addition, in 2013 and 2014, the total attention to genetically modified foods reached more than 10 million, which was the hottest public opinion event, and the safety controversy over genetically modified foods continued, and the call for the labeling of genetically modified foods to ensure the public's right to know and choose was unabated. Although there has always been a controversy about GM foods, the further development of GM foods is an inevitable trend, so people's attention to GM foods will remain relatively hot. (3) Most of the surveyed netizens are susceptible to unconfirmed negative information, and the survey data shows that unconfirmed negative information about food safety on the Internet has a greater impact on the food safety confidence of the interviewed netizens. The results of the survey on "eating behavior of genetically modified foods" also show that for foods whose safety issues are still inconclusive, negative information has a significantly greater impact on the surveyed netizens than positive information. This may be because food safety issues are directly related to life, health and safety, and the public often holds the mentality of "rather trust what you have, not trust what you don't" when facing relevant negative information, which can also explain why although China's food safety situation is "generally stable and the trend is good", the public does not have a high evaluation of the current food safety situation. In the process of future supervision and guidance of food safety network public opinion, on the one hand, it is necessary to further strengthen the crackdown on rumor-mongering and rumor-mongering, reduce false information on the network as much as possible, and strive to purify the network environment; On the other hand, it is necessary to give full play to the active role of food safety experts and food safety professional institutions in the process of food safety risk communication, cultivate and improve the public's ability to identify food safety network information through risk communication, avoid the public being misled by false information, promote the public to objectively understand and evaluate China's food safety situation, and guide the public to use food safety network information more scientifically and efficiently, and rationally participate in food safety network public opinion. (4) The risk perception of food purchased online by netizens is affected by many factors, and the degree of understanding of food safety knowledge has an important impact on the risk perception of food purchased online by netizens, and food safety knowledge should be further popularized through media publicity, professional knowledge lectures, etc., to improve the public's food safety literacy, and guide the public to correctly understand and scientifically respond to food safety risks. Excessive consumption time, after-sales service problems, private information security, and merchant integrity are important factors affecting the risk perception of online food purchased by netizens, and the humanization of information search and shopping procedures should be further improved, the process of online food shopping should be systematically optimized, and the time consumed by consumers in the shopping process should be reduced; Build a wide coverage, timely response, professional and efficient after-sales service system, and strengthen after-sales service guarantee; The use of advanced information security technology, and the development of a sound information security system to prevent the leakage, loss or illegal use of consumers' personal private information, and protect the security of consumers' private information throughout the shopping process. In addition, through the design of a scientific and reasonable reward and punishment system, guide businesses to operate in good faith and reduce the losses caused by consumers' dishonesty or fraudulent behavior. Netizens' attention and trust in online evaluation is also an important factor affecting the risk perception of online food purchases, and the online evaluation system of online food should be further improved, on the one hand, by combating unfair competition behavior, suppressing false information in online evaluations, including merchants forcing consumers to give unrealistic evaluations and malicious evaluations by competitors through coercion and inducement; On the other hand, guide consumers to evaluate objectively and rationally, and provide other consumers with effective selection basis. (5) The number of followers, the number of microblogs, the authentication situation, and other factors affecting the netizens' microblog retweeting behavior, and the number of followers and microblogs of the poster's microblog are important factors affecting the number of times their microblogs are forwarded, and there is a positive correlation. The authentication status of the poster's Weibo has an impact on the number of times his Weibo is retweeted. Among them, for Weibo (type I. Weibo) that only has the content of the main post, uncertified Weibo is easier to be forwarded than officially certified Weibo; For Weibo (Type II Weibo) that has forwarded other people's content, officially certified Weibo is easier to be forwarded than Weibo verified by influencers and verified by individuals. Whether there is a link to the Weibo content affects the number of times the poster's Weibo is retweeted. For Weibo that only has the content of the main post, if there is no link in the poster's Weibo, its Weibo is more likely to be forwarded; For Weibo that has forwarded other people's content, if there is a link on the Weibo of the forwarded person, the poster's Weibo is more likely to be forwarded. For Weibo with only the content of the main post, the emotional tendency of the poster's Weibo content has an impact on the number of times his Weibo is retweeted, and Weibo that presents a critical emotional tendency is the most likely to be forwarded, followed by neutral emotional tendency and the lowest sympathetic emotional tendency; Whether the poster's Weibo content has a video also has an impact on the number of times his Weibo is retweeted, and if the Weibo content has a video, it is more likely to be forwarded. For Weibo that has forwarded other people's content, the number of followers of the retweeted Weibo is negatively correlated with the number of times the poster's Weibo is retweeted, and the number of times the retweeter's Weibo is forwarded is positively correlated with the number of times the poster's Weibo is retweeted. (6) The credibility, authority and relevance of media Weibo are important criteria for judging whether it is a core node or opinion leader, and through the study of the 2014 Food Safety Weibo Public Opinion Communication Network constructed by representative food safety public opinion events such as "Fuxi Meat", "Taiwan Gutter Oil", "Sick and Dead Pigs", "Poison Duck Blood", "Poisonous Rotten Bamboo", "Poison Fans" and "Poison Capsules", it can be found that in the process of food safety Weibo public opinion dissemination, although " Qingdao Traffic Radio FM897" and other common media Weibo can easily obtain information on food safety incidents, but its dissemination is limited to a small subgroup of media. As the core node of public opinion information dissemination, People's Daily and other media microblogs play an important role in the dissemination of public opinion information. These media microblog users have high credibility and authority, have a large number of media fans, and the information released by them can attract the attention and forwarding of ordinary media microblogs, and their public opinion communication behaviors and public opinion attitudes greatly affect the speed and overall trend of public opinion information dissemination. However, not limited to the credibility and authority of the media, the relevance of media microblogs and food safety is also the main criterion for judging whether the media is a core node or opinion leader. The food safety incident-related media Weibo represented by "Look at the News Network" ("Fuxi Meat" incident) is the "eye of the storm" of food safety microblog public opinion, playing an important role that cannot be ignored, and to a certain extent, determines the initial scale of the formation and dissemination of public opinion information. (7) Public participation plays an important role in food safety incidents, and the issue of the safety of GM food safety is still debated. In addition to the public's scientific literacy and ability to understand science to be improved, information non-disclosure, information asymmetry is also a problem in reality, traditional media and new media play an important role in the process of information dissemination, but the media itself on the accuracy, comprehensiveness, authenticity of the information also has problems, therefore, network public opinion is a level of attention in the debate on the safety of genetically modified food, but also a problem worth investigating. Public participation has played an active role in some social and public affairs, and it is worth learning from the Danish consensus meeting in the GM food debate. Public participation in the consensus meeting on GM technology in Denmark draws scientists' attention to ethical issues in GM technology as well as other issues in the social dimension, which is a good complement to scientific research. However, it should be noted that even if the public can participate, its subjective initiative must be limited by scientific rationality, and public participation will also appear to only focus on short-term interests, or be encouraged to blind participation, which will have a negative impact on the development of things. Therefore, in the process of public participation, it is necessary to grasp the tension between scientific rationality and subjective initiative. (8) Big data brings opportunities and challenges to food safety supervision, tens of thousands of information are generated every day, and the scale of data shows explosive growth, which brings opportunities and challenges to food safety supervision. On the one hand, the massive amount of data and resources on the Internet has great potential value, and if key information can be quickly identified and effectively analyzed, it will help to perceive food safety risks faster and warn the public. However, the acquisition and analysis of massive data is not easy, and the sources of information release are complex, which to a certain extent causes confusion in information management, and the spread of uncertain information and false information is difficult to control, providing rich soil for the spread of rumors. On the other hand, social media provides a convenient platform for the public to participate in food safety supervision and promotes the development of social supervision forces, but irrational voices in online public opinion have also brought great trouble to government supervision, and the spread of negative emotions among netizens has buried some potential risks to social stability. How to effectively use massive information to improve government supervision capabilities and guide social supervision to play an active role is an important issue that needs to be solved urgently in food safety supervision innovation under the concept of "social co-governance".（AI翻译）