中国储蓄之谜的系统解析:基于储蓄供需理论与人口结构视角
Systemic Analysis of the Chinese Saving Puzzle:Based on Supply-Demand Theory for Saving and Demographic Structure
图书简介
储蓄事关经济增长潜力,也关乎消费水平,是经济中至关重要的问题。自1978年改革开放以来,中国经济实现了快速增长。然而,在此期间,中国经济长期伴随着高储蓄现象并难以改变,对此国内外学术界称之为“中国储蓄之谜”。本书基于储蓄供需理论与人口结构的视角,对中国储蓄之谜问韪进行了系统解析:一是根据当前主流储蓄理论主要以消费行为分析为核心内容,缺乏生产行为分析的局限性,本书建立了以消费者为储蓄供给主体、生产者为储蓄需求主体,储蓄供给与储蓄需求两方面因素共同决定储蓄实际水平的储蓄理论分析框架。二是鉴于目前此类研究仍处于从分散、个别、孤立的因素分析中寻求答案的局面,本书在储蓄供需理论框架下将收入、通货膨胀、利率、资本积累、劳动力数量、资本折旧、财政政策、货币政策、预期寿命、代际收入及人口结构(人口老龄化)等诸多影响储蓄的因素,相应纳入有关储蓄供给或储蓄需求的理论与实证分析中。三是由于人口兼有生产者与消费者的双重属性,因此研究人口结构、人口老龄化与储蓄的关系是本书的重点内容。基本结论是:不断提高的储蓄供给与不断升高的储蓄需求,两方面因素共同促成了中国高储蓄现象的形成;而以劳动力数量比重不断上升为主要特征的人口结构,是此期间中国出现高储蓄现象的内在、客观的因素。
Savings are vital issues in the economy as much as at the level of consumption. Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's economy has achieved rapid growth. However, during this period, China's economy has been accompanied by high savings for a long time and it is difficult to change, which is called the "mystery of Chinese savings" by academic circles at home and abroad. Based on the perspective of savings supply and demand theory and population structure, this book systematically analyzes the mystery of China's savings: First, according to the current mainstream savings theory mainly based on consumption behavior analysis as the core content, lack of production behavior analysis limitations, this book establishes a savings theory analysis framework with consumers as the main body of savings supply, producers as the main body of savings demand, and two factors of savings supply and savings demand jointly determine the actual level of savings. Second, in view of the fact that such research is still seeking answers from the analysis of scattered, individual, and isolated factors, this book incorporates many factors affecting savings, such as income, inflation, interest rates, capital accumulation, labor quantity, capital depreciation, fiscal policy, monetary policy, life expectancy, intergenerational income and population structure (population aging), into the theoretical and empirical analysis of savings supply or demand under the framework of savings supply and demand theory. Third, because the population has the dual attributes of producer and consumer, studying the relationship between population structure, population aging and savings is the focus of this book. The basic conclusion is that the increasing supply of savings and the rising demand for savings have contributed to the formation of China's high savings. The demographic structure, characterized by the rising proportion of labor force, is an intrinsic and objective factor in the phenomenon of high savings in China during this period.(AI翻译)
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