本专著为笔者主持的2007年国家社科基金项目“人民币汇制改革的绩效及进一步改革研究：兼论人民币升值的中国产业升级与产业转移效应”研究的最终结项成果。

该书首先回顾了1949年以来人民币历次汇改的原因与绩效，进而辩证地剖析了2005年人民币汇改的主要原因和人民币升值压力的内外诱因。然后，利用规范研究和实证研究相结合较全面较系统地评价了新汇制五年多的实际绩效，包括汇率弹性本身和新汇制对中国经济内外均衡的改善效应，尤其是对国际收支、中国经济增长和就业、中国货币政策独立性与有效性、国内商业银行和金融市场等内外部均衡的影响；建立了新时期游资估算的新方程式，进而析解了人民币升值的多项中国经济效应之谜，如：析解了人民币升值与中国贸易顺差骤升共舞之悖论、人民币升值与中国经济升温共舞之悖论、在资本项目基本管制条件下人民币升值与中国通货膨胀加剧共舞等之谜，析解了人民币升值的中国产业升级效应之理论与现实的悖论等。最后，在综合评价人民币汇改的实际绩效的基础上，提出汇率目标区制为人民币汇制进一步改革的方案，并对人民币汇率目标区的设计进行多方案比较分析，同时根据均衡汇率新论“均衡汇率杠杆论”和中国的基本国情，提出了中国近、中期的人民币汇率政策和汇率目标区方案的基本思路。

本书理论与实践结合，可供高校和科研机构经管类的教师、研究人员、硕博士及大学生，政府工作人员，以及对人民币汇率感兴趣的其他哲学社会科学工作者进一步研究人民币汇率和人民币汇制改革参考和阅读。

This monograph is the final result of the 2007 National Social Science Foundation project "Research on the Performance and Further Reform of RMB Exchange System Reform: On the Effect of RMB Appreciation on China's Industrial Upgrading and Industrial Transfer". The book first reviews the reasons and performance of the RMB exchange rate reform since 1949, and then dialectically analyzes the main reasons for the RMB exchange rate reform in 2005 and the internal and external causes of the RMB appreciation pressure. Then, using a combination of normative research and empirical research, the actual performance of the new exchange rate system over the past five years was evaluated more comprehensively and systematically, including the exchange rate flexibility itself and the improvement effect of the new exchange rate on the internal and external equilibrium of China's economy, especially on the balance of payments, China's economic growth and employment, the independence and effectiveness of China's monetary policy, domestic commercial banks and financial markets. A new equation for the estimation of floating capital in the new era was established, and then a number of mysteries of China's economic effects of RMB appreciation were analyzed, such as: the paradox of RMB appreciation dancing with China's trade surplus, the paradox of RMB appreciation dancing with China's economic warming, the dance of RMB appreciation and China's inflation under the condition of basic capital account control, and the paradox between theory and reality of the effect of RMB appreciation on China's industrial upgrading. Finally, on the basis of comprehensive evaluation of the actual performance of RMB exchange rate reform, a plan for further reform of the RMB exchange rate target area system is proposed, and a multi-scheme comparative analysis is carried out on the design of the RMB exchange rate target area, and the basic ideas of China's RMB exchange rate policy and exchange rate target area plan in the near and medium term are put forward according to the new theory of equilibrium exchange rate "equilibrium exchange rate leverage" and China's basic national conditions. The combination of theory and practice of this book can be used as a reference and reading for teachers, researchers, masters and doctoral students, university students, government workers, and other philosophical and social scientists interested in the RMB exchange rate to further study the RMB exchange rate and RMB exchange rate reform.（AI翻译）

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