本书是中国人民大学宏观经济论坛团队关于2015—2016年中国宏观经济分析与预测的研究成果，执笔人为刘元春、闫衍、刘晓光。全书共有四章：第一章是总论与预测，包括对2015年经济运行回顾和对2016年经济走势展望，并对2015—2016年主要的宏观经济指标进行预测。第二章深入分析开启新常态攻坚期的2015年，总结了2015年经济运行的六大特征，即经济增长持续回落、通货紧缩全面显化、景气指数持续低迷、经济结构深度分化、股市泡沫破灭冲击以及宏调政策捉襟见肘。第三章对探底反弹进程中的2016年进行展望，深入分析探底的基本逻辑与预测，指出2016年面临的两大类风险以及四个需要重点关注的问题。第四章是总结全书的主要研究结论，在回顾与展望2015—2016年中国经济的基础上，得出宏观经济政策需要再定位的判断，并提出九方面的具体建议。

This book is the research result of the Macroeconomic Forum team of Chinese University on China's macroeconomic analysis and forecast from 2015 to 2016, written by Liu Yuanchun, Yan Yan and Liu Xiaoguang. The book has four chapters: the first chapter is a general overview and forecast, including a review of economic performance in 2015 and an outlook for economic trends in 2016, and forecasts for major macroeconomic indicators in 2015-2016. Chapter 2 provides an in-depth analysis of 2015, the year of the new normal, and summarizes the six characteristics of economic operation in 2015, namely, the continuous decline in economic growth, the full manifestation of deflation, the continuous sluggish prosperity index, the deep differentiation of the economic structure, the impact of the bursting of the stock market bubble, and the stretched macro policy. Chapter 3 looks forward to 2016 in the process of bottoming out, deeply analyzes the basic logic and prediction of bottoming, and points out two types of risks and four issues that need to be focused on in 2016. Chapter 4 summarizes the main research conclusions of the book, and on the basis of reviewing and looking forward to China's economy in 2015-2016, it makes a judgment that macroeconomic policies need to be reoriented, and puts forward specific suggestions in nine aspects.（AI翻译）

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