摘要：2017年，全球贸易形势明显好转，全球贸易同比增长5.19%，扭转了前几年贸易增速低于经济增速的低迷态势。中国外贸形势回暖，中国进口同比增长11.4%，实现了两位数、超乎预期的增长。2017年我国外贸继续保持第一大出口国和第二大进口国地位，出口同比增长7.9%，进出口增长15.9%。本报告从服务贸易和货物贸易方式、商品结构、国别结构和地区结构等角度，深入剖析了2017年我国对外贸易的增长动力和特征，并对2018年及未来我国对外贸易的发展走势进行了预测。报告建议：应进一步加强供给侧改革，谨防贸易保护主义、货币政策收紧、地缘政治风险等国际环境变化带来的风险；增强出口产品，特别是机电产品的技术含量，适度降低对部分大宗商品的进口依存度；优化加工贸易结构，鼓励促进加工贸易向中西部地区转移；开拓一带一路和新兴市场国家市场，实现出口多元化，按照既定节奏扩大从世界各国的进口；兼顾贸易发展速度和质量的平衡，做好自贸试验区的经验总结和复制推广；等等。

关键词：中国对外贸易；形势分析；趋势预测

Abstract: Global trade has recovered significantly in 2017,with the growth rate of 5.19%,reversing the downturn that the trade growth falling lower than the economic growth in previous years.In 2017,China's trade has strongly recovered and is better than expected,increasing by 11.4%.China has kept on being the largest exporter and second largest importer over the world.In 2017,China's export rose by 7.9% and import rose by 15.9%.The report analyzed the features and reasons of the rapid growth of China's trade in 2017 from the following perspectives: service trade,commodity structure,types of merchandise trade,country structure and provinces and areas features.The report also predicted the development trend of China's trade in 2018.The report suggested that China should further strengthen the supply-side reform; keep aware of the challenges from protectionism and risks in the international environment; enhance the technologi cal content of China's mechani cal and electri cal products export and reduce the dependence on import of bulk commodities;optimize the structure of the processing trade and encourage the processing trade moving to the midwest areas; realize export diversification by exploring the markets of One Belt One Road countries and emerging markets; balance be tween growth speed and quality development; and encourage to promote the experiences of free trade zones.

Key Words: China's Trade,Situation Analysis,Trend Prediction

Abstract: In 2017, the global trade situation improved significantly, with global trade increasing by 5.19% year-on-year, reversing the sluggish trend of trade growth being lower than economic growth in previous years. China's foreign trade situation picked up, and China's imports increased by 11.4% year-on-year, achieving double-digit growth that exceeded expectations. In 2017, China's foreign trade continued to maintain the position of the largest exporter and the second largest importer, with a year-on-year increase of 7.9% in exports and 15.9% in imports and exports. This report deeply analyzes the growth momentum and characteristics of China's foreign trade in 2017 from the perspectives of service trade and goods trade mode, commodity structure, country structure and regional structure, and predicts the development trend of China's foreign trade in 2018 and the future. The report recommends that supply-side reforms should be further strengthened, and risks brought about by changes in the international environment such as trade protectionism, monetary policy tightening, and geopolitical risks should be guarded against; Enhance the technical content of export products, especially mechanical and electrical products, and moderately reduce the import dependence on some bulk commodities; Optimize the structure of processing trade and encourage and promote the transfer of processing trade to the central and western regions; Develop the markets of Belt and Road and emerging market countries, diversify exports, and expand imports from countries around the world at a set pace; Taking into account the balance between the speed and quality of trade development, we should summarize and replicate the experience of the pilot free trade zone; Wait a minute. Keywords: China's foreign trade; situation analysis; Abstract: Global trade has recovered significantly in 2017,with the growth rate of 5.19%, reversing the downturn that the trade growth falling lower than the economic growth in previous years. In 2017,China's trade has strongly recovered and is better than expected,increasing by 11.4%. China has kept on being the largest exporter and second largest importer over the world. In 2017,China's export rose by 7.9% and import rose by 15.9%. The report analyzed the features and reasons of the rapid growth of China's trade in 2017 from the following perspectives: service trade,commodity structure,types of merchandise trade,country structure and provinces and areas features. The report also predicted the development trend of China's trade in 2018.The report suggested that China should further strengthen the supply-side reform; keep aware of the challenges from protectionism and risks in the international environment; enhance the technologi cal content of China's mechani cal and electri cal products export and reduce the dependence on import of bulk commodities;optimize the structure of the processing trade and encourage the processing trade moving to the midwest areas; realize export diversification by exploring the markets of One Belt One Road countries and emerging markets; balance be tween growth speed and quality development; and encourage to promote the experiences of free trade zones. Key Words: China's Trade,Situation Analysis,Trend Prediction（AI翻译）

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