金融周期可以更为真实准确地刻画经济周期及经济运行状况。为了分析金融变量波动的周期规律、分析宏观经济政策的影响作用、为人们进行经济决策和政策当局宏观调控提供参考，本书首先构建金融周期理论模型，尝试使用滤波法、谱密度分析法、非线性马尔可夫链区间转制平滑模型等多种线性和非线性方法测算中国金融周期规律特征，测算中国金融周期与行业技术周期的波动关系、中国信贷周期与发达国家信贷周期的数量关系，以及中国金融市场周期与发达国家金融市场周期的数量关系，再通过Copula-GARCH模型检验中国金融周期中的货币政策效应、财政政策效应及政治周期效应，初步得出如下结论：

（1）金融周期内生于经济波动，金融运行状况本质上反映了经济结构和总量的变化状况。金融稳态路径由经济稳态路径和长期金融制度决定，是经济稳态路径的反映。经济体系内部不同集团经济实力的数量和结构调整，导致了金融周期。

（2）中国金融制度近期表现为显性集权隐性分权结构特征。民间金融的发展、地方金融的扩张和地方政府竞争国家金融资源共同推动了金融风险的积聚和爆发，并不断求助于国家的货币救助，从而形成“风险冲动—风险聚集—风险膨胀—风险化解……”的金融周期。金融周期具体表现在银行经营的周期性、金融市场的周期性、政治金融周期等方面。财政政策、货币政策对金融周期具有不同程度的调控作用。

（3）银行经营不仅具有显著的周期性，而且与实体经济周期之间存在密切关系。这表现在：银行信贷具有顺物价波动周期特征；银行经营规模具有显著的顺通胀波动周期特征；随着体制转化、国际接轨，银行资本的逆物价波动周期特征逐渐显现。

（4）金融市场具有明显的周期性，而且国内不同类型的金融市场之间存在周期波动的传染性。金融市场的周期性及传染性还表现为国际上不同国家金融市场之间的波动与传染，使国际金融市场周期表现出一定的相关性或共振性。

（5）各金融变量的周期冲击影响不同行业的投资周期。在繁荣阶段，金融市场和银行对技术创新行业具有正向推动作用，但金融市场对高密度技术创新行业的推动作用更为显著，银行对低密度技术创新行业的推动作用更为显著；在收缩阶段，金融市场对高密度技术创新行业的紧缩效应更为显著，银行却对低密度技术创新行业的下行起到缓解作用。

（6）金融周期波动中的货币政策效应。中国的利率和货币供给量主要服务于产出增长，对货币稳定反应不足；对汇率比较关心，对股市、房地产等资产反应不足。货币政策对金融周期波动的冲击效应较低。

（7）金融周期波动中的财政政策效应。政府财政支出波动通过对基础货币变动、再贴现规模变动、公开市场拆借规模变动产生显著的冲击效应，进而对银行信贷、通货膨胀等产生显著影响。

（8）金融周期波动中的政治周期效应。在改革开放的前30年，中国在一定程度上存在政治金融周期，具体表现为：中央政府换届与金融周期之间存在较显著的正相关性；中央政府换届引致地方政府交流周期，经济政绩考核下的晋升机制促使地方政府产生纵向、横向上的竞争，并产生周期性的经济发展举措，进而加大经济周期振幅；在中央政治行为周期影响下，财政政策、货币政策具有一定的顺周期特征。

（9）国际上广泛存在的政治金融周期。不同类型的市场经济国家都存在显著的“政治金融周期”，政治周期是影响金融周期的重要因素。核心国货币政策会影响到其他有经济往来国家的金融周期，但效应小于各国国内的政治周期；国家之间金融周期存在一定的数量关系，未出现统一变化的周期性规律。

综合分析，宏观经济政策对金融周期具有显著影响，在短期内具有缓和金融危机的作用，但也存在三个问题——社会公众不公平地承担了高风险营利性机构的成本、强化了金融机构冒险行为、增强了通货膨胀预期，直至积累的金融风险由政策制定者化解。正是这些问题导致宏观经济政策在长期内可能加剧金融周期波动。

关键词：金融周期；宏观经济政策；政策效应

The financial cycle can more realistically and accurately portray the economic cycle and economic operation. In order to analyze the cyclical law of financial variable fluctuations, analyze the influence of macroeconomic policies, and provide reference for people to make economic decisions and macro-control of policy authorities, this book first constructs a theoretical model of financial cycles, attempts to use a variety of linear and nonlinear methods such as filter method, spectral density analysis method, nonlinear Markov chain interval conversion smoothing model and other linear and nonlinear methods to measure the characteristics of China's financial cycle, measure the fluctuation relationship between China's financial cycle and industry technology cycle, and the quantitative relationship between China's credit cycle and the credit cycle of developed countries. and the quantitative relationship between China's financial market cycle and the financial market cycle of developed countries, and then examine the monetary policy effect, fiscal policy effect and political cycle effect in China's financial cycle through the Copula-GARCH model, and preliminarily draw the following conclusions: (1) The financial cycle is born from economic fluctuations, and the financial operation status essentially reflects the changes in economic structure and aggregate. The financial steady-state path is determined by the economic steady-state path and the long-term financial system, and is a reflection of the economic steady-state path. The quantitative and structural adjustment of the economic power of different groups within the economic system has led to the financial cycle. (2) China's financial system has recently shown the characteristics of explicit centralization and implicit decentralization structure. The development of private finance, the expansion of local finance and the competition of local governments for national financial resources have jointly promoted the accumulation and outbreak of financial risks, and constantly resorted to the state's monetary rescue, thus forming a financial cycle of "risk impulse-risk aggregation-risk inflation-risk resolution...". The financial cycle is specifically manifested in the cyclical nature of bank operations, the cyclicality of financial markets, and the political and financial cycle. Fiscal policy and monetary policy have different degrees of regulatory effect on the financial cycle. (3) Bank operations not only have significant cyclicality, but also have a close relationship with the real economic cycle. This is manifested in: bank credit has the characteristics of a pro-price fluctuation cycle; The scale of bank operations has significant characteristics of pro-inflation fluctuation cycles; With the transformation of the system and the integration of international standards, the characteristics of the reverse price fluctuation cycle of bank capital have gradually emerged. (4) The financial market has obvious cyclicality, and there are different types of domestic financial markets with the contagion of cyclical fluctuations. The cyclical and contagious nature of the financial market is also manifested in the fluctuation and contagion between the financial markets of different countries in the world, so that the international financial market cycle shows a certain correlation or resonance. (5) The cyclical shocks of various financial variables affect the investment cycle of different industries. In the prosperity stage, the financial market and banks have a positive role in promoting the technological innovation industry, but the financial market has a more significant role in promoting the high-density technology innovation industry, and the bank has a more significant role in promoting the low-density technology innovation industry. In the contraction phase, the tightening effect of financial markets on high-density technology innovation industries is more significant, while banks have played a mitigating role in the downward trend of low-density technology innovation industries. (6) The effect of monetary policy in financial cycle fluctuations. China's interest rates and money supply mainly serve output growth and do not respond adequately to monetary stability; It is more concerned about the exchange rate and does not respond enough to assets such as the stock market and real estate. The impact of monetary policy on fluctuations in the financial cycle is low. (7) The effect of fiscal policy in the fluctuation of the financial cycle. The fluctuation of government fiscal expenditure has a significant impact on the change of the base currency, the change of the scale of rediscounting, and the change of the scale of open market lending, which in turn has a significant impact on bank credit and inflation. (8) The political cyclical effect in financial cycle fluctuations. In the first 30 years of reform and opening up, there was a political and financial cycle in China to a certain extent, which was manifested as: there was a significant positive correlation between the change of central government and the financial cycle; The change of the central government leads to the exchange cycle of local governments, and the promotion mechanism under economic performance appraisal promotes vertical and horizontal competition among local governments, and produces periodic economic development measures, thereby increasing the amplitude of the economic cycle; Under the influence of the central political behavior cycle, fiscal policy and monetary policy have certain pro-cyclical characteristics. (9) The international widespread political and financial cycle. Different types of market economy countries have significant "political and financial cycles", and political cycles are important factors affecting the financial cycle. The monetary policy of the core countries will affect the financial cycle of other countries with economic exchanges, but the effect is smaller than the domestic political cycle of each country; There is a certain quantitative relationship between the financial cycles between countries, and there is no cyclical law of uniform change. Comprehensive analysis, macroeconomic policies have a significant impact on the financial cycle and have the effect of alleviating the financial crisis in the short term, but there are also three problems - the public unfairly bears the costs of high-risk for-profit institutions, strengthens the risk-taking behavior of financial institutions, and enhances inflation expectations, until the accumulated financial risks are resolved by policymakers. It is these issues that lead to macroeconomic policies that may exacerbate financial cycle volatility in the long term. Keywords: financial cycle; macroeconomic policies; Policy effects（AI翻译）