摘要：2011年以来，中国经济面临的下行压力主要是长期潜在增长率下滑。这其中主要原因是技术模仿空间缩小和第一次系统性改革的红利逐渐减弱。基于中国国情，并借鉴国际经验，近期我们应着力于实现下面几项新旧动能的转换：（1）以技术前沿创新代替技术模仿；（2）以人口质量红利代替人口数量红利；（3）以技术创新导向的民间资本设备投资取代政府主导的基础设施投资；（4）以质量提升为导向的农业现代化和深度工业化代替原来数量扩张为导向的农业产业化和工业化；（5）以攀升国际价值链的新型开放和提升国内居民消费水平取代外需的数量扩张；（6）以城市群一体化为代表的深度城市化代替简单数量增加的城市化；（7）以新一轮结构性改革红利提升原有改革红利。实现这7大动能转换，技术创新是先导，改革是手段。最为根本的是构建与新动能激励相容的体制机制，激励市场主体和政府行为与新动能相一致。

关键词：潜在增长率；投资；技术创新；对外开放；改革

Abstract: The downward pressure on China's economy since 2011 is mainly due to the decline of long-term potential growth rate.The main reasons for this are mainly due to the shrinking of technology imitation space and the diminishing dividend of the first systemic reform.Based on China's national conditions and drawing on the international experience,we should focus on realizing the transformation of economic growth sources in the following aspects:（1）replacing the technology imitation with technological innovation;（2）replacing demographic dividends with demographic quality dividends;（3）replacing the government-led infrastructure investment with innovation-oriented private equipment investment;（4）replacing the original quantitative expansion-oriented agricultural industrialization and industrialization with the quality-oriented agricultural modernization and deep industrialization;（5）climbing international value chain and increasing domestic consumption to replace the quantitative expansion of external demand;（6）the integration of urban groups to replace the simple increase in the number of urbanization rate;（7）a new round of structural reform.To realize these new economic growth sources,technological innovation is the guide,the reform is the foundation.Technological innovation is the forerunner,and the reform is the method.The most fundamental is to build an incentive mechanism compatible with the new economic growth sources,and to encourage market players and government to be consistent with new economic growth sources.

Key Words: potential growth rate,investment,technology innovation,opening-up,reform

Abstract: Since 2011, the downward pressure on China's economy has been mainly due to the decline in long-term potential growth rate. The main reason for this is the shrinking space for technological imitation and the gradual weakening of the dividends of the first systemic reform. Based on China's national conditions and drawing on international experience, we should focus on the following transformation of new and old kinetic energy in the near future: (1) replace technological imitation with cutting-edge technological innovation; (2) Replace the population quantity dividend with the population quality dividend; (3) replacing government-led infrastructure investment with private capital and equipment investment oriented by technological innovation; (4) Agricultural modernization and deep industrialization oriented by quality improvement replace the original agricultural industrialization and industrialization oriented by quantitative expansion; (5) the quantitative expansion of replacing external demand with new opening-up that climbs the international value chain and the upgrading of domestic household consumption levels; (6) Deep urbanization represented by the integration of urban agglomerations replaces simple and quantitative urbanization; (7) Enhance the original reform dividend with a new round of structural reform dividends. To realize the transformation of these seven kinetic energy, technological innovation is the forerunner, and reform is the means. The most fundamental thing is to build an institutional mechanism compatible with the new momentum incentive, and encourage market entities and government behavior to be consistent with the new momentum. Keywords: potential growth rate; Investment; technological innovation; Opening; Abstract: The downward pressure on China's economy since 2011 is mainly due to the decline of long-term potential growth rate. The main reasons for this are mainly due to the shrinking of technology imitation space and the diminishing dividend of the first systemic reform. Based on China's national conditions and drawing on the international experience,we should focus on realizing the transformation of economic growth sources in the following aspects: （1）replacing the technology imitation with technological innovation; （2）replacing demographic dividends with demographic quality dividends; （3）replacing the government-led infrastructure investment with innovation-oriented private equipment investment; （4）replacing the original quantitative expansion-oriented agricultural industrialization and industrialization with the quality-oriented agricultural modernization and deep industrialization; （5）climbing international value chain and increasing domestic consumption to replace the quantitative expansion of external demand; （6）the integration of urban groups to replace the simple increase in the number of urbanization rate; （7）a new round of structural reform. To realize these new economic growth sources,technological innovation is the guide,the reform is the foundation. Technological innovation is the forerunner,and the reform is the method. The most fundamental is to build an incentive mechanism compatible with the new economic growth sources,and to encourage market players and government to be consistent with new economic growth sources. Key Words: potential growth rate,investment,technology innovation,opening-up,reform（AI翻译）