全球化、一体化是当今世界经济的主要特征。随着对外贸易在全球经济总产出中的比重和国际资本流动规模的增长，经济开放国家的经济增长越来越依赖于全球经济情况。全球化趋势对货币政策赖以操作的金融环境产生了强大的作用，进而对各国中央银行提出了严峻的挑战。既然货币政策越来越受到全球化的影响，作为一国货币政策制定者，中央银行就必须从全球化角度去重新审视货币政策的调控框架，将基于国内的需求管理上升到基于全球的需求管理，从基于国内的政策设计上升到基于全球的政策设计。

在全球化需求管理下，货币政策的调控变得更复杂、更广泛、更困难，一国的中央银行必须正视货币政策的国际协调问题。一方面，国内的政策必须考虑到经济开放的影响，货币政策既要维持经济的内部均衡，又要保证经济的外部均衡。不同的货币政策工具在实现内外均衡时的效率不同，不同的政策搭配也会产生不一样的效果。另一方面，政策的国际协调也变得越来越重要。在封闭经济的条件下，由于资本、商品、劳动力等要素不能自由流动，因此，一国的货币政策不会有溢出效应，同时本国的货币政策也很少受到外国实施的货币政策的影响。但是，事实上，完全封闭的经济是不存在的，经济全球化、金融全球化大大加强了各国宏观经济之间的联系，各国的货币政策存在明显的相互影响。一个经济对外开放的国家在制定货币政策时必须考虑到本国的政策会对外国的货币政策产生哪些影响，国外的货币政策又会对本国的经济产生哪些影响。

本书首先界定了研究的范畴，从货币政策国际协调的相关概念出发，明确了货币政策国际协调概念的界定以及与相关概念的联系和区别。其次分析了货币政策国际协调的前提条件、货币政策国际协调的目标、货币政策国际协调的内容、货币政策国际协调的形式、货币政策国际协调的模式以及货币政策国际协调的原则。从中央银行的角度，为了做出正确的决策，本书也从成本收益的角度对货币政策国际协调进行了分析。本书系统地梳理和总结了货币政策国际协调理论的发展及研究的现状。从米德的相互依存理论入手，介绍了蒙代尔—弗莱明—多恩布什模型、新开放经济宏观经济学模型以及哈马达模型、两国博弈模型等，并对货币政策国际协调方案理论、货币政策的逆效合作理论进行了分析和评价。

本书结合理论和实证研究，对来自美国的货币政策冲击是否会对中国经济产生影响、产生何种影响、影响的趋势以及传递机制进行了研究，主要得出了以下结论：

（1）美国的货币政策对中国的产出存在溢出效应，但这种效应主要是一种短期的影响，集中在前3个月，在3—8个月的时间里，脉冲值围绕0上下波动；而在8个月之后，基本上没有影响。从影响方向看，美国的货币政策对中国产出是一种负向的影响，即紧缩的货币政策会带来中国产出的短暂增加，宽松的货币政策会带来中国产出的短暂减少。

（2）美国货币政策对中国的通货膨胀水平存在溢出效应。当美国实施紧缩的货币政策时，中国的通货膨胀水平会上升，这种上升在前3个月达到峰值，之后就逐月下降，但是，这种正的影响在长期一直存在。

（3）美国货币政策冲击通过政策渠道传导溢出效应，这里的政策渠道有两层含义，分别是美国货币政策对中国货币政策的影响以及中国货币政策的自主性。本书的研究显示，美国的货币政策对中国的利率有正向的影响，脉冲值在4个月达到顶峰，在10个月后基本稳定。从影响的方向来看，美国货币政策溢出效应的影响是正向的，即美国加息，中国也会随之加息。美国货币政策冲击对中国的货币供给量也存在正向的影响，脉冲值在7个月达到顶峰。这意味着当美国实施紧缩的货币政策时，我国的货币供应量反而是上升的。对中国货币政策自主性的检验结果发现，虽然中国实行的是以货币供应量为中介目标的货币政策操作策略，但对货币供应量的控制力并不强。中央银行的国内净资产变动的波动率和国外净资产变动的波动率之间负的相关性在大幅度提高，我国中央银行的货币政策很大程度上是对美国货币政策的一种被动调整。

（4）美国货币政策冲击通过贸易渠道传导溢出效应。美国货币政策的冲击对中国的进口存在一个正向的影响，维持期达到了16个月。在存在影响的16个月中，脉冲值虽然呈现出一个下降的趋势，但波动是比较剧烈的。从影响的方向来看，美国的货币政策对中国的出口存在正向的影响，在美国扩张性货币政策的刺激下，中国的出口会减少；在美国紧缩的货币政策刺激下，中国的出口会增加。来自美国货币政策影响的峰值出现在第4个月，然后呈现波动下降趋势，维持期达到了20个月。美国的货币政策对中国的净出口产生一个先负向后正向的影响，负向的影响维持期为3个月，3个月之后的影响就是正向的。美国的货币政策调整会影响中国的净出口，其紧缩的货币政策在3个月内会使中国的净出口减少，而3个月后会使中国的净出口增加。

（5）美国的货币政策冲击通过资产价格渠道传导溢出效应。美国货币政策会对中国的资产价格产生一个负向的影响，即美国紧缩的货币政策会导致中国资产价格收益率的下降，而美国宽松的货币政策则会导致中国资产价格收益率的上升。这种影响的维持期限大约为20个月，峰值出现在第3个月。

（6）在三种影响渠道中，美国货币政策冲击对政策渠道的影响最大，其次是资产价格渠道，最后是贸易渠道。在贸易渠道中，美国货币政策的冲击对出口的影响又大于对进口和净出口的影响。

关键词：货币政策 国际协调 溢出效应

Globalization and integration are the main characteristics of today's world economy. As the share of foreign trade in total global economic output and the scale of international capital flows increase, the economic growth of countries with open economies is increasingly dependent on the global economic situation. The trend of globalization has had a powerful effect on the financial environment in which monetary policy operates, which in turn poses serious challenges to central banks. Since monetary policy is increasingly affected by globalization, as a country's monetary policymaker, the central bank must re-examine the regulatory framework of monetary policy from the perspective of globalization, and rise from domestic-based demand management to global-based demand management, and from domestic-based policy design to global-based policy design. Under the management of global demand, the regulation of monetary policy has become more complex, extensive and difficult, and a country's central bank must face up to the issue of international coordination of monetary policy. On the one hand, domestic policies must take into account the impact of economic openness, and monetary policy must maintain both the internal and external equilibrium of the economy. Different monetary policy tools have different efficiency in achieving internal and external equilibrium, and different policy combinations will also produce different effects. On the other hand, international policy coordination is becoming increasingly important. Under the conditions of a closed economy, because capital, commodities, labor and other factors cannot flow freely, a country's monetary policy will not have spillover effects, and its own monetary policy is rarely affected by foreign monetary policy. However, in fact, a completely closed economy does not exist, economic globalization and financial globalization have greatly strengthened the macroeconomic links between countries, and there are obvious mutual effects of monetary policies of various countries. When formulating monetary policy, a country with an open economy must consider how its own policies will affect foreign monetary policies, and what impact foreign monetary policies will have on its own economy. This book first defines the scope of research, starting from the relevant concepts of international coordination of monetary policy, and clarifies the definition of the concept of international coordination of monetary policy and the connection and difference between related concepts. Secondly, the preconditions for international coordination of monetary policy, the objectives of international coordination of monetary policy, the content of international coordination of monetary policy, the form of international coordination of monetary policy, the mode of international coordination of monetary policy and the principles of international coordination of monetary policy are analyzed. From the perspective of central banks, in order to make the right decisions, this book also analyzes the international coordination of monetary policy from a cost-benefit perspective. This book systematically sorts out and summarizes the development and research status of the theory of international coordination of monetary policy. Starting from Mead's theory of interdependence, the Mundell-Fleming-Dornbusch model, the macroeconomic model of the new open economy, the Hamada model, and the two-country game model are introduced, and the theory of international coordination of monetary policy and the theory of inverse cooperation of monetary policy are analyzed. Combining theoretical and empirical research, this book studies whether monetary policy shocks from the United States will have an impact on China's economy, what kind of impact they have, the trend of impact and the transmission mechanism, and mainly draw the following conclusions: (1) There is a spillover effect of US monetary policy on China's output, but this effect is mainly a short-term impact, concentrated in the first 3 months, and in the period of 3-8 months, the pulse value fluctuates around 0; After 8 months, there was basically no impact. From the perspective of the direction of influence, US monetary policy has a negative impact on China's output, that is, tight monetary policy will bring a temporary increase in Chinese output, and loose monetary policy will bring a temporary decrease in Chinese output. (2) There is a spillover effect of US monetary policy on China's inflation level. When the United States implements a tight monetary policy, China's inflation level rises, peaking in the first three months and then decreasing month by month, but this positive effect has persisted for a long time. (3) The US monetary policy shock transmits spillover effects through the policy channel, and the policy channel here has two meanings, namely the impact of US monetary policy on China's monetary policy and the autonomy of China's monetary policy. The research in this book shows that US monetary policy has a positive effect on interest rates in China, peaking at 4 months and remaining largely stable after 10 months. From the direction of the impact, the impact of the spillover effect of US monetary policy is positive, that is, the US raises interest rates, and China will also raise interest rates. The US monetary policy shock also had a positive impact on China's money supply, peaking in 7 months. This means that when the United States implements a tight monetary policy, our money supply rises. The results of the examination of China's monetary policy autonomy show that although China implements a monetary policy operation strategy with money supply as the intermediary goal, its control over money supply is not strong. The negative correlation between the volatility of changes in domestic net assets of the central bank and the volatility of changes in foreign net assets is increasing significantly, and the monetary policy of China's central bank is largely a passive adjustment of US monetary policy. (4) U.S. monetary policy shocks transmit spillover effects through trade channels. The shock of US monetary policy had a positive impact on China's imports, with a maintenance period of 16 months. During the 16 months of influence, although the pulse value showed a downward trend, the fluctuation was relatively sharp. From the perspective of the direction of impact, the US monetary policy has a positive impact on China's exports, and China's exports will decrease under the stimulation of the US expansionary monetary policy; Stimulated by tighter monetary policy in the United States, China's exports will increase. The peak of the impact from US monetary policy occurred in the 4th month, and then showed a downward trend of volatility, which reached a 20-month maintenance period. U.S. monetary policy has a negative and then positive impact on China's net exports, with a negative impact maintained for 3 months and a positive impact after 3 months. The adjustment of monetary policy in the United States will affect China's net exports, and its tightening monetary policy will reduce China's net exports within 3 months and increase China's net exports after 3 months. (5) Monetary policy shocks in the United States transmit spillover effects through asset price channels. US monetary policy will have a negative impact on China's asset prices, that is, tightening monetary policy in the United States will lead to a decline in China's asset price yields, while loose monetary policy in the United States will lead to an increase in China's asset price returns. The duration of this effect is approximately 20 months, with a peak in the third month. (6) Among the three channels of influence, the US monetary policy shock has the greatest impact on the policy channel, followed by the asset price channel, and finally the trade channel. In trade channels, the impact of US monetary policy shocks on exports is greater than the impact on imports and net exports. Keywords: monetary policy, international coordination, spillover（AI翻译）