依据中国的实际情况，本书首先构建符合中国实际的社会稳定指标体系，并使用主成分分析法、因子分析法进行量化分析。然后，分析研究社会保障支出及其各分项的城乡差别，构建代表社会保障城乡差异的指标。在此基础上，确定社会保障支出及其城乡差别影响社会稳定的理论模型和估计方程，分别使用时间序列、省级面板数据，分析社会保障支出各个分项及其城乡差距对社会稳定影响的程度。最后，依据量化分析结果，为我国进一步施行城乡统筹的社会保障制度提供政策建议。

本书的主要观点：鉴于我国社会保障支出的城乡差别较大，只是单纯地增加社会保障支出总量而忽视社会保障的地区差异、城乡差异、社会保障的支出结构问题，那么社会保障支出对社会稳定就会产生一些负面影响。在经济新常态下，我们在注重社会保障支出总量增加的基础上，还要进一步注重社会保障的地区均衡发展、支出结构，特别是推进社会保障城乡统筹、城乡一体化的制度安排，从社会保障支出方面缩小地区、城乡差距，使支出结构合理化，进一步增强社会稳定。

根据社会保障支出的分项支出，以及社会保障的城乡差距对社会稳定的量化分析结果，得出如下结论：

其一，社会保障支出从总量增加来促进社会稳定，其作用已经越来越弱甚至出现负面效果，单纯地增加总量并不能解决社会稳定问题，下一步应该解决社会保障支出的结构问题，尤其是城乡结构、地区结构。

其二，由于经济发展的地区不均衡导致社会保障的地区不均衡也是造成社会不稳定的因素之一，这要求我们必须注重地区发展的均衡性。

其三，目前的社会保障城乡差距是造成社会稳定性降低的主要因素，这要求我们首先要解决地区发展的不平衡性；其次加快社会保障的城乡一体化建设，社会保障应该全覆盖，全民统一保障标准，实现社会底线公平。

关键词：社会保障支出 社会保障城乡差异 社会稳定

According to the actual situation in China, this book first constructs a social stability index system in line with China's actual situation, and uses principal component analysis and factor analysis to quantitatively analyze it. Then, the urban-rural differences of social security expenditure and its sub-items are analyzed and studied, and indicators representing urban-rural differences in social security are constructed. On this basis, the theoretical model and estimation equation of social security expenditure and its urban-rural difference affect social stability are determined, and the time series and provincial panel data are used to analyze the impact of each sub-item of social security expenditure and its urban-rural gap on social stability. Finally, based on the quantitative analysis results, this paper provides policy suggestions for the further implementation of the urban and rural integrated social security system in China. The main point of this book: In view of the large difference between urban and rural areas of China's social security expenditure, simply increasing the total amount of social security expenditure while ignoring the regional differences in social security, the difference between urban and rural areas, and the structure of social security expenditure, then social security expenditure will have some negative impact on social stability. Under the new normal economic situation, on the basis of paying attention to the increase in the total amount of social security expenditure, we should further pay attention to the balanced regional development and expenditure structure of social security, especially the institutional arrangements for promoting the overall planning of urban and rural areas and the integration of urban and rural areas of social security, narrow the gap between regions and urban and rural areas in terms of social security expenditure, rationalize the expenditure structure, and further enhance social stability. According to the sub-expenditure of social security expenditure and the quantitative analysis results of the urban-rural gap of social security on social stability, the following conclusions are drawn: First, the role of social security expenditure to promote social stability from the total increase has become weaker and weaker or even negative effects, simply increasing the total amount can not solve the problem of social stability, the next step should be to solve the structural problem of social security expenditure, especially the urban-rural structure and regional structure. Second, regional imbalances in social security due to regional imbalances in economic development are also one of the factors causing social instability, which requires us to pay attention to the balance of regional development. Third, the current gap between urban and rural areas in social security is the main factor causing the decline of social stability, which requires us to first solve the imbalance of regional development; Second, accelerate the integration of urban and rural social security, social security should be fully covered, the whole people should unify security standards, and achieve social bottom line fairness. Keywords: social security expenditure, social security urban-rural differences, social stability（AI翻译）