CEGS在2018年可以说进入到一个相对比较成熟的发展时期，主要表现在调查覆盖了中国几个比较有代表性的区域，包括南部的广东、东部的江苏、中部的湖北、西部的四川和东北的吉林等五个省份。更有代表性的是，所调查的内容完整覆盖了企业的各个方面，除了企业基本状况、企业家、生产、创新、技术、转型、销售、出口、质量、人力资源、员工、性格特点、保险福利、会计和融资等内容外，还增加了营商环境、社会责任、中美贸易冲突、企业经营预期和企业党组织设立等新的内容。也正是因为如此，这个调查无论从内容还是从定位上，都确实是反映中国企业总体状况的综合调查，所以将其称之为“中国企业综合调查”（CEGS），确实是实至名归。当然，这并没有因为调查的综合性，而影响调查所更关注的一些主要问题，包括劳动力、创新、智能化、机器人、企业治理和营商环境等方面。实际上，CEGS调查之所以说进入到相对比较成熟的阶段，不仅是每两年都要进行一次对样本的固定跟踪调查，而且是基础调查内容的稳定性与年度前沿问题的热点相互结合。

CEGS的连续性调查，不仅在2018年进入到一个比较成熟的阶段，更重要的是让我们有可能研究，中国企业转型升级中的一些新的现象、新的问题和新的发现。

我国企业正在走向以创新驱动为主要动能的转型过程。从创新投入来看，企业平均研发支出在2015—2017年三年间平均增速达15.4%。从创新产出来看，企业的产品创新速度也在不断提升，新产品销售占比从2015年的24.6%，提升至2017年的29.1%，年均提升了2.3个百分点。在创新的形式上，工艺创新和产品创新能力较为突出，调查企业中有生产方法工艺创新的企业比重达64.2%，有产品创新的企业占比为59.5%。与此同时，企业创新能力也呈现出分化特征，民营企业设立研发部门的比重为46.3%，较整体水平要低2.9个百分点。小型企业的创新能力不足，有专利的小型企业占比为17.7%，较中型企业和大型企业分别低了23.9和39.7个百分点。

我国企业正在走向以质量提升为主线的升级过程。应对消费不断升级，企业质量投入持续增长，近三年内质量投入明显增长的达80.7%，质量水平有明显提升的企业占比为85.4%。企业质量品牌意识不断增强，2017年拥有自主品牌的企业占47.3%，较2016年提升了2.3个百分点。产品出口市场更为多元，2017年平均出口国家和地区数量为13个，较2016年增长了2个，增幅为18%。同时，质量升级的过程中也面临着一些约束和障碍，特别是对质量升级的正向激励制度仍有待完善，调查企业中有超过10%的企业表示遇到过知识产权侵犯。

我国企业在中美贸易冲突等不确定性中依然保持对未来的良好预期。为了反映中美贸易对企业带来的影响，我们首次引入了企业经营者的预期调查。数据表明，在中美贸易冲突背景下，仍有62%的企业预期来年销售额将有增长，有23%的企业认为来年销售额将有下降，持正向预期企业较持负向预期企业比例高出39个百分点。企业总体上认为中美贸易冲突并不会带来很大的就业下降，预期来年的就业人数将有1.6%的增长。这反映出，我国企业对中美贸易冲突这一外部冲击整体上有较好的应对能力。与此同时，我们看到中美贸易冲突对部分企业将带来较强的局部性影响，其中小型企业预期来年销售额将出现下降的企业达到了35.4%，高出中型企业12.9个百分点，高出大型企业20个百分点。

我国企业加速推进的智能化正在引起劳动力市场的巨大变化。为应对劳动成本的快速上升，企业加快推进了生产的智能化升级。在我们的调查样本中，使用了机器人的企业占比在2015年为8.1%, 2017年这一比例增长至13.4%, 2015—2017年的三年间机器人投资的年均增速高达57%。机器人的使用替代了所在企业9.4%的初中及以下学历员工，同时大学本科及以上学历的员工数量却增长了3.6%。机器人对于不同工作任务的影响呈现出明显的结构性差异，机器人替代了3.3%重复运动和体力要求的常规操作型任务，同时也增加了2.7%对于非常规认知型工作任务的需求。机器人的大量使用将导致一部分岗位的消失从而增加就业压力，据估计机器人使用对劳动力的整体替代效应为0.3%，并将在2025年达到4.7%。

我国企业治理能力的内外部条件不断趋于改善。治理能力现代化，是我国转型升级的重要内容，我们重点调查了政府治理中的营商环境以及企业党组织治理等问题。调查数据显示，调查企业对营商环境的总体评分达7.3分（以10分制评价）。企业每月办理行政审批的平均天数从2015年的14.2天下降为2017年的4.5天，3年累计下降68.3%。有50.4%的企业认为近年来行政审批成本有所下降。与此同时，中小型企业的营商环境获得感不强仍然是企业发展的痛点，中小型企业的营商环境总体评价较大型企业低了11%，其中对于行政收费的规范性评价较大型企业低9.8%，投资优惠的公平性评价较大型企业低了13.6%。党组织在企业内的治理功能作用日益增强，特别是外资企业和民营企业中党组织快速增长，两类企业中成立党组织的比例为36%，党组织在支撑企业现代治理、更好履行社会责任方面发挥着积极作用。

《中国企业综合调查报告（CEGS）——2018》，依然由我作为调查的总负责人，提出总体构思和篇章逻辑，并组建参与本书写作的团队成员，对每章的具体内容提出写作要求，定期开展讨论修改，并最后修改定稿；由罗连发和李丹丹作为调查的核心组织参与者，具体带领团队开展每一章节的统计研究与内容写作；参与具体章节写作的成员有：贾旭、白云、陈佳、王岚、吴成强、马娟霞、张伟、金荷、谭俊、李媛媛、黄圆圆、王明明、董一鸣、沈笑寒、代丹、吕宵、胡可、张伟、陈佳、沈笑寒、吴成强、许宁翰、王俊苏、方宁静、肖轶伦、赵晓松、郜蕊、谭俊、谢超鹏。

武汉大学质量发展战略研究院院长

武汉大学中国企业调查数据中心主任

程虹

于珞珈山

2019年11月29日

CEGS can be said to have entered a relatively mature period of development in 2018, mainly reflected in the survey covering several representative regions of China, including Guangdong in the south, Jiangsu in the east, Hubei in the middle, Sichuan in the west and Jilin in the northeast. More representatively, the content of the survey completely covers all aspects of the enterprise, in addition to the basic situation of the enterprise, entrepreneurs, production, innovation, technology, transformation, sales, export, quality, human resources, employees, personality characteristics, insurance benefits, accounting and financing, etc., but also added new contents such as business environment, social responsibility, Sino-US trade conflicts, business expectations and the establishment of enterprise party organizations. It is precisely because of this that this survey is indeed a comprehensive survey reflecting the overall situation of Chinese enterprises in terms of content and positioning, so it is indeed deserved to call it "Comprehensive Survey of Chinese Enterprises" (CEGS). Of course, this did not affect some of the main issues that the survey paid more attention to, including labor, innovation, intelligence, robotics, corporate governance and business environment. In fact, the reason why the CEGS survey has entered a relatively mature stage is not only a fixed follow-up survey of the sample every two years, but also a combination of the stability of the basic survey content and the hot spots of the annual frontier issues. The CEGS continuous survey not only entered a relatively mature stage in 2018, but more importantly, it made it possible for us to study some new phenomena, new problems and new discoveries in the transformation and upgrading of Chinese enterprises. Chinese enterprises are moving towards a transformation process driven by innovation. From the perspective of innovation investment, the average R&D expenditure of enterprises increased by an average of 15.4% in the three years from 2015 to 2017. From the perspective of innovation output, the speed of product innovation of enterprises is also constantly improving, and the proportion of new product sales has increased from 24.6% in 2015 to 29.1% in 2017, an average annual increase of 2.3 percentage points. In the form of innovation, process innovation and product innovation capabilities are more prominent, and the proportion of enterprises with production method and process innovation in the survey enterprises reached 64.2%, and the proportion of enterprises with product innovation was 59.5%. At the same time, the innovation ability of enterprises also shows differentiated characteristics, and the proportion of private enterprises setting up R&D departments is 46.3%, which is 2.9 percentage points lower than the overall level. The innovation ability of small enterprises is insufficient, and the proportion of small enterprises with patents is 17.7%, which is 23.9 and 39.7 percentage points lower than that of medium-sized enterprises and large enterprises, respectively. Chinese enterprises are moving towards the upgrading process with quality improvement as the main line. In response to the continuous upgrading of consumption, the quality investment of enterprises continued to grow, with 80.7% of the quality investment increasing significantly in the past three years, and the proportion of enterprises with a significant improvement in quality level was 85.4%. The awareness of enterprise quality and brand has been continuously enhanced, and 47.3% of enterprises with independent brands in 2017, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over 2016. The export market of products is more diversified, with an average number of export countries and regions in 2017 of 13, an increase of 2 over 2016, an increase of 18%. At the same time, the process of quality upgrading also faces some constraints and obstacles, especially the positive incentive system for quality upgrading still needs to be improved, and more than 10% of the surveyed enterprises said that they have encountered intellectual property infringement. Chinese enterprises still maintain good expectations for the future amid uncertainties such as the Sino-US trade conflict. To reflect the impact of U.S.-China trade on businesses, we introduced the Expectations Survey for business operators for the first time. The data shows that in the context of the Sino-US trade conflict, 62% of companies still expect sales to increase in the next year, and 23% of companies believe that sales will decline in the next year, and the proportion of companies with positive expectations is 39 percentage points higher than that of companies with negative expectations. Companies generally believe that the US-China trade conflict will not lead to a large job decline, and expect employment growth of 1.6% in the coming year. This reflects that Chinese enterprises have a better ability to respond to the external impact of the Sino-US trade conflict on the whole. At the same time, we see that the Sino-US trade conflict will have a strong local impact on some enterprises, among which small enterprises expect sales to decline in the coming year reached 35.4%, 12.9 percentage points higher than medium-sized enterprises and 20 percentage points higher than large enterprises. The accelerated intelligence of Chinese enterprises is causing great changes in the labor market. In order to cope with the rapid rise in labor costs, enterprises have accelerated the intelligent upgrading of production. In our survey sample, the proportion of companies using robots increased from 8.1% in 2015 to 13.4% in 2017, and the average annual growth rate of robot investment in the three years from 2015 to 2017 was as high as 57%. The use of robots replaced 9.4% of employees with junior high school education and below, while the number of employees with a bachelor's degree or above increased by 3.6%. The impact of robots on different work tasks shows obvious structural differences, and robots replace 3.3% of routine operational tasks with repetitive movement and physical requirements, while also increasing the demand for unconventional cognitive work tasks by 2.7%. The heavy use of robots will lead to the disappearance of a portion of jobs and thus increase employment pressure, and it is estimated that the overall substitution effect of robot use on the workforce is 0.3% and will reach 4.7% by 2025. The internal and external conditions of China's corporate governance capacity are constantly improving. The modernization of governance capacity is an important part of China's transformation and upgrading, and we focused on investigating the business environment in government governance and the governance of enterprise party organizations. According to the survey data, the overall rating of the survey enterprises on the business environment reached 7.3 points (on a 10-point scale). The average number of days per month for enterprises to handle administrative approval decreased from 14.2 days in 2015 to 4.5 days in 2017, a cumulative decrease of 68.3% in three years. 50.4% of enterprises believe that administrative approval costs have decreased in recent years. At the same time, the lack of a strong sense of business environment for small and medium-sized enterprises is still a pain point for enterprise development, and the overall evaluation of the business environment of small and medium-sized enterprises is 11% lower than that of large enterprises, of which the normative evaluation of administrative fees is 9.8% lower than that of large enterprises, and the fairness evaluation of investment incentives is 13.6% lower than that of large enterprises. Party organizations play an increasingly important role in the governance function of enterprises, especially in foreign-funded enterprises and private enterprises, the proportion of party organizations established in the two types of enterprises is 36%, and party organizations play an active role in supporting modern governance of enterprises and better fulfilling social responsibilities. In the "China Enterprise Comprehensive Survey Report (CEGS)-2018", I am still the general leader of the survey, put forward the overall concept and chapter logic, and formed team members to participate in the writing of this book, put forward writing requirements for the specific content of each chapter, regularly discussed and revised, and finally revised and finalized; Luo Lianfa and Li Dandan, as the core participants of the survey, specifically led the team to carry out statistical research and content writing for each chapter; The members who participated in the writing of specific chapters were: Jia Xu, Bai Yun, Chen Jia, Wang Lan, Wu Chengqiang, Ma Juanxia, Zhang Wei, Jin He, Tan Jun, Li Yuanyuan, Huang Yuanyuan, Wang Mingming, Dong Yiming, Shen Xiaohan, Dai Dan, Lu Xiao, Hu Ke, Zhang Wei, Chen Jia, Shen Xiaohan, Wu Chengqiang, Xu Ninghan, Wang Junsu, Fang Jingjing, Xiao Yilun, Zhao Xiaosong, Gao Rui, Tan Jun, Xie Chaopeng. Cheng Hong, Dean of the Institute of Quality Development Strategy of Wuhan University and Director of the China Enterprise Survey Data Center of Wuhan University, November 29, 2019（AI翻译）