本书是在中国政府高度重视基础设施投资，学术界又很关注交通基础设施在经济中所起作用的宏观大背景下，对交通基础设施的网络效应及溢出效应进行了理论分析和实证检验。在理论上，应用经济增长理论、国际贸易理论和新经济地理理论分析了交通基础设施的网络效应与溢出效应产生的原因以及作用机制。在实证上，本书基于上述理论的框架，分析了国际运输方式中各类交通基础设施的发展，通过贸易引力模型实证检验了交通基础设施的网络效应，并对其进行国际比较；接下来讨论了我国交通基础设施的发展趋势和空间格局，通过空间计量、空间统计等分析方法对交通基础设施的溢出效应进行了实证分析，同时进一步验证了交通基础设施的空间溢出效应。

本书主要得出以下结论：①交通基础设施是一个国家物流水平的重要体现，近年来发展中国家和新兴经济体国家逐渐地改善了交通基础设施的状况，使得国家物流水平总体有所提高。②交通基础设施的网络效应在国际贸易中发挥着重要作用，但是仍然具有进一步提升的空间。由于在国际贸易中的地位和本身的特点，港口、航空和公路基础设施指标对进出口贸易流量的促进作用比较显著；而铁路运输由于运营特点，作用较为微弱。同时，代表国家物流基础设施综合水平的物流设施综合指数对消除贸易障碍、增强出口贸易竞争力具有显著的促进作用。总体来说，发达国家的交通基础设施网络效应好于发展中国家。③中华人民共和国成立后，经过60多年的发展，以及近年来政府为了应对危机，实施扩大内需的财政政策，以及制定各类地区发展政策，使得我国交通基础设施建设取得了长足进步，粗具规模的综合交通运输体系逐步形成，公路、铁路、民航、水路及管道建设快速发展。不过，中国交通基础设施建设也面临着结构不合理、运力不足、各种运输方式衔接较差和交通基础设施地区分布不平衡等问题。④交通基础设施总体上对我国经济增长具有正向的溢出效应，但由于区域历史条件限制，各地区溢出效应强弱不一；由于交通基础设施与其他部门之间相对生产率的差距，导致交通基础设施对经济增长的直接影响始终为负；交通基础设施的溢出效应存在明显滞后期，且逐渐衰竭，在滞后4—5期时由正向转为负向；省际交通基础设施带来的空间溢出效应明显，但同样存在各地区强弱不一的现象，中、东部地区更加明显。

本书的创新之处主要在于：①研究视角的创新。通过梳理国际商品贸易及国际运输中涉及的各类交通基础设施，首次以贸易引力模型为切入点，实证检验了交通基础设施的网络效应，并对世界各主要贸易国家交通基础设施的网络效应进行了比较，系统地开展了理论分析与实证检验，填补了现有研究的空白。②研究方法的创新。在对中国交通基础设施的发展趋势及地区发展格局进行分析的基础上，应用Feder模型将交通基础设施对本地区经济增长的直接效用和间接效用剥离开来，来实证地检验交通基础设施的溢出效应。同时还借助空间计量经济学的研究方法，利用空间权重矩阵来实证地检验交通基础设施的空间溢出效应。

关键词：交通基础设施 网络效应 溢出效应 空间计量模型

Abstract

This research did theoretical analysis and empirical test on the network and spillover effects of transport infrastructure when both the Chinese government and the academic world have paid great attention on how transport infrastructure construction affects Chinese economy.Based on the theory of economic growth,international trade and new economic geography,this research analyzed how the network and spillover effects of transport infrastructure worked.On this theoretical basis,this research analyzed the development of all kinds of transport infrastructure in international transportation and empirically tested its network effect by trade gravity model with comparative country analysis.And this research also discussed the development and structure of China's both national and regional transport infrastructure,empirically analyzed the spillover effect of transport infrastructure by spatial statistics and further tested the spatial spillover effect of transport infrastructure.

The conclusions of this research are as follows: First,a country's development level of logistics was reflected by its development level of transport infrastructure.And during recent years,new developing economies have improved their development of transport infrastructure,so these countries' development level of logistics was also improved.Second,the network effect of transport infrastructure played an important role in doing international business,but still needs to be improved.Because of the different role played in international transportation,the port,the air and the road infrastructure have statistically significant effect on improving the volume of import and export,but the rail infrastructure does not.The results showed better logistics infrastructure index would significantly reduce trade barriers,increase export competitiveness.Generally speaking,the network effect of transport infrastructure was better in developed countries than in developing countries.Third,thanks to government fiscal policy of expanding domestic demand in order to deal with crisis and the 60 years of its own development since the country has established,China's transport infrastructure has improved a lot,and a network of all kinds of transport infrastructure has gradually established.But the construction of China's transport infrastructure still faces some problems,such as irrational structure,lack of capacity,poor link up of various modes of transport and imbalances in the distribution of transport infrastructure.Fourth,transport infrastructure had a positive spillover effect on China's economic growth; Different geography and historical endowments played important roles in regional disparities; Transport infrastructure had a negative direct effect on China's economic growth due to the relative marginal productive gap between the two departments of national economy; The effect on economic growth of transport infrastructure had a significant time lag and this lag changes its sign when time is 4—5 years; Transport infrastructure had a significant spatial spillover effect,which was relatively more obvious in middle and eastern part.

The innovations of this research are as follows: First,this research has an innovative perspective.By analyzing the development of all kinds of transport infrastructure in international transportation,this research systematically and empirically tested the network effect of transport infrastructure by trade gravity model with comparative analysis among world major trading countries,making up the existing gas in recent research.Second,this research has innovative research methods.Based on the analysis of the development and structure of China's both national and regional transport infrastructure,this research separated the direct effect from the indirect effect of transport infrastructure of the economic growth and empirically tested the spillover effect of transport infrastructure.This research also empirically tested the spatial spillover effect of transport infrastructure by spatial weight matrix using method of spatial statistics and econometrics.

Keywords : Transport Infrastructure; Network Effect; Spillover Effect; Spatial Econometrics Model

This book provides theoretical analysis and empirical testing of the network effects and spillover effects of transportation infrastructure against the macro background of the Chinese government's great emphasis on infrastructure investment and the academic community's attention to the role of transportation infrastructure in the economy. In theory, the application of economic growth theory, international trade theory and new economic geography theory analyzes the causes and mechanisms of network effects and spillover effects of transportation infrastructure. Empirically, based on the framework of the above theories, this book analyzes the development of various types of transportation infrastructure in international transportation modes, empirically tests the network effects of transportation infrastructure through trade gravity model, and compares them internationally. Next, the development trend and spatial pattern of transportation infrastructure in China are discussed, and the spillover effect of transportation infrastructure is empirically analyzed by spatial measurement and spatial statistics, and the spatial spillover effect of transportation infrastructure is further verified. This book mainly draws the following conclusions: (1) Transportation infrastructure is an important embodiment of a country's logistics level, and in recent years, developing countries and emerging economies have gradually improved the status of transportation infrastructure, so that the overall level of national logistics has improved. (2) The network effects of transportation infrastructure play an important role in international trade, but there is still room for further improvement. Due to their status and characteristics in international trade, port, air and road infrastructure indicators play a significant role in promoting import and export trade flows; However, due to the operational characteristics, the role of railway transportation is relatively weak. At the same time, the comprehensive index of logistics facilities, which represents the comprehensive level of national logistics infrastructure, has a significant role in promoting the elimination of trade obstacles and enhancing the competitiveness of export trade. In general, transport infrastructure network effects are better in developed countries than in developing countries. (3) After the founding of the People's Republic of China, after more than 60 years of development, and in recent years, in response to the crisis, the government has implemented fiscal policies to expand domestic demand, and formulated various regional development policies, so that China's transportation infrastructure construction has made great progress, a rough-scale comprehensive transportation system has gradually formed, and the construction of highways, railways, civil aviation, waterways and pipelines has developed rapidly. However, China's transportation infrastructure construction also faces problems such as unreasonable structure, insufficient transportation capacity, poor connection of various modes of transportation, and unbalanced regional distribution of transportation infrastructure. (4) Transportation infrastructure generally has a positive spillover effect on China's economic growth, but due to regional historical conditions, the spillover effect varies from region to region; The direct impact of transport infrastructure on economic growth is consistently negative due to the gap in relative productivity between transport infrastructure and other sectors; The spillover effect of transportation infrastructure has a significant lag and gradually fails, and changes from positive to negative when lagging 4-5 periods. The spatial spillover effect brought by inter-provincial transportation infrastructure is obvious, but there are also different strengths and weaknesses in different regions, especially in the central and eastern regions. The main innovations in this book are: (1) Innovation in research perspective. By combing through various types of transportation infrastructure involved in international commodity trade and international transportation, the network effect of transportation infrastructure is empirically tested by taking the trade gravity model as the starting point, and the network effect of transportation infrastructure in major trading countries in the world is compared, and theoretical analysis and empirical test are systematically carried out, filling the gap of existing research. (2) Innovation of research methods. Based on the analysis of the development trend and regional development pattern of China's transportation infrastructure, the Feder model is applied to separate the direct and indirect effects of transportation infrastructure on regional economic growth, and the spillover effect of transportation infrastructure is empirically tested. At the same time, with the help of spatial econometric research methods, the spatial weight matrix is used to empirically test the spatial spillover effect of transportation infrastructure. Keywords: transportation infrastructure network effects spillover effects spatial econometric models AbstractThis research did theoretical analysis and empirical test on the network and spillover effects of transport infrastructure when both the Chinese government and the academic world have paid great attention on how transport infrastructure construction affects Chinese economy. Based on the theory of economic growth,international trade and new economic geography,this research analyzed how the network and spillover effects of transport infrastructure worked. On this theoretical basis,this research analyzed the development of all kinds of transport infrastructure in international transportation and empirically tested its network effect by trade gravity model with comparative country analysis. And this research also discussed the development and structure of China's both national and regional transport infrastructure,empirically analyzed the spillover effect of transport infrastructure by spatial statistics and further tested the spatial spillover effect of transport infrastructure. The conclusions of this research are as follows: First,a country's development level of logistics was reflected by its development level of transport infrastructure. And during recent years,new developing economies have improved their development of transport infrastructure,so these countries' development level of logistics was also improved. Second,the network effect of transport infrastructure played an important role in doing international business,but still needs to be improved. Because of the different role played in international transportation,the port,the air and the road infrastructure have statistically significant effect on improving the volume of import and export,but the rail infrastructure does not. The results showed better logistics infrastructure index would significantly reduce trade barriers,increase export competitiveness. Generally speaking,the network effect of transport infrastructure was better in developed countries than in developing countries. Third,thanks to government fiscal policy of expanding domestic demand in order to deal with crisis and the 60 years of its own development since the country has established,China's transport infrastructure has improved a lot,and a network of all kinds of transport infrastructure has gradually established. But the construction of China's transport infrastructure still faces some problems,such as irrational structure,lack of capacity,poor link up of various modes of transport and imbalances in the distribution of transport infrastructure. Fourth,transport infrastructure had a positive spillover effect on China's economic growth; Different geography and historical endowments played important roles in regional disparities; Transport infrastructure had a negative direct effect on China's economic growth due to the relative marginal productive gap between the two departments of national economy; The effect on economic growth of transport infrastructure had a significant time lag and this lag changes its sign when time is 4—5 years; Transport infrastructure had a significant spatial spillover effect,which was relatively more obvious in middle and eastern part. The innovations of this research are as follows: First,this research has an innovative perspective. By analyzing the development of all kinds of transport infrastructure in international transportation,this research systematically and empirically tested the network effect of transport infrastructure by trade gravity model with comparative analysis among world major trading countries,making up the existing gas in recent research. Second,this research has innovative research methods. Based on the analysis of the development and structure of China's both national and regional transport infrastructure,this research separated the direct effect from the indirect effect of transport infrastructure of the economic growth and empirically tested the spillover effect of transport infrastructure. This research also empirically tested the spatial spillover effect of transport infrastructure by spatial weight matrix using method of spatial statistics and econometrics. Keywords : Transport Infrastructure; Network Effect; Spillover Effect; Spatial Econometrics Model（AI翻译）