大数据时代信息的急剧增长和快速流动使得网络舆情呈现出更高的不确定性和复杂性，给突发事件应对和应急决策带来很大挑战。新的网络生态下，社会网络舆情事件的处置需要应对部门和决策者提高危机沟通的科学性和协同性。科学性要求应对部门加强对舆论传播和网络群体行为的认识，识别网络舆情发展过程中的关键要素，协同性要求应急决策在时间上、内容上都能考虑公众需求，保证及时的沟通与互动。本书以提高网络舆情应对决策的科学性和协同性为目的，将交叉影响分析和情景推演方法引入社会网络舆情事件的应急决策研究，建立了定性与定量相结合的网络舆情应急决策方法。本书首先通过文献研究梳理了国内外网络舆情的研究成果和情景分析方法的研究进展。其次收集了近几年有较大社会影响力的网络舆情事件，通过对历史案例的分析，研究了政府在网络舆情应对中引发决策失效的关键情景要素，确立了网络舆情情景要素集，并进一步运用交叉影响分析法对情景要素间的关系进行了研究，构建了网络舆情的情景结构图。再次，在交叉影响分析的基础上，建立了网络舆情情景分析模型，对情景要素的影响力和决策干预进行了情景模拟和分析。最后，基于实际案例构建网络舆情情景，对案例进行分析推演，介绍了基于情景推理的网络舆情应急决策方法在实际中的应用。本书的主要贡献包括两个方面：第一，对造成网络舆情应对失效的关键情景要素及其相互影响进行了系统性的梳理和分析；第二，构建了定量化的情景分析模型对网络舆情进行推演和预测，为决策的选择和评估提供支持。

关键词：应急管理；决策方法；网络舆情；情景分析

Abstract

The rapid growth and flow of information in the age of big data has led to higher uncertainty and complexity in online public opinion and collective behavior,which brings great challenges to emergency response and decision-making.Under the new Internet ecology,the handling of online public opinion events needs to improve the scientificity and cooperativity of crisis communication among emergency management departments.On one hand,emergency management departments should be able to identify the needs of people and the cause of collective activism in time.On the other hand,emergency management departments should make right decisions to meet people' s appeals to prevent further influence.This book aims to improve government decision-making in dealing with online public opinion events.By combing qualitative and quantitative methods,cross-impact analysis and scenario modeling are introduced to study government decision-making in dealing with online public opinion and collec tive behavior.First of all,literatures on public opinion,online collective behavior and scenario analysis method are reviewed.Secondly,online public opinion events with great social influence in recent years are collected for in-depth cast studies.Key elements that contribute to ineffective emergency response are identified and systematically analyzed.By combining Delphi method and Cross-impact Analysis（CIA）,the influence between different factors is studied.The most important factors are extracted and the relationship between them are presented in a graph by employing Interpretative Structural Modeling.Thirdly,a scenario analysis model is built to generate scenario and predict the possible future of scenario evolution under different decisions and intervention strategies.Finally,a case study is conducted to explain how the model is used for scenario simulation to predict the evolution of scenario and support decision-making and decision evaluation.This book has two main contributions,the first is identifying key factors that lead to ineffective government response in dealing with online public opinion and collective behavior.The second is developing quantitative study on decisionmaking problem of online collective behavior response.

Key Words: Emergency Management; Decision-Making Methods;Online Public Opinion;Scenario Analysis