本书主要由农业巨灾风险分散机制相关理论评述、农业巨灾风险影响分析、农业巨灾风险分散研究和农业巨灾风险分散机制设计四个大的部分总计十章构成。第一部分是农业巨灾风险分散机制相关理论评述。农业巨灾是一个全球共同面临的难题，我国农业巨灾长期深刻地影响着社会稳定和经济持续健康发展，尽管我国正在积极探索农业巨灾风险分散管理，但还是存在许多问题。农业巨灾是一个相对事件，结合国内外通行做法，采用专家咨询法，在调研231个有效样本后认为，基于受灾农户、农业保险公司或政府的农业巨灾度量标准分别是一次性灾害累计损失超过其总资产、赔付能力和GDP的50％、30％和1‰的为农业巨灾，否则就是一般性农业灾害。本书是从宏观视角对农业巨灾风险分散进行研究，所以采用了年度农业自然灾害损失超过当年GDP的1‰就视为农业巨灾。农业巨灾风险分散又称农业巨灾风险转移，是农业巨灾风险处理的一种选择方式。一般情况下，发生农业巨灾后，农户可选择风险降低、风险自留和风险分散三种方式进行风险处理。农业风险分散方式主要有财政救助、社会捐赠、农业保险和再保险、巨灾准备金和巨灾金融衍生产品等。农业巨灾风险分散机制是指涉及政策、市场、风险转移工具等的一系列制度安排，具体地说是农业巨灾风险管理主体为了减轻农业巨灾损失，依照国家政策和市场条件，将农业巨灾风险合理地在保险市场、资本市场和政府之间进行分散的机制。第二部分是我国农业巨灾风险及其影响系统分析。首先对我国农业巨灾情况进行了系统描述，主要包括历年农业巨灾直接经济损失及占GDP的比例等情况、历年农业巨灾主要灾种直接经济损失情况、历年农业巨灾其他情况，如受灾人口、死亡（含失踪）人口、紧急转移安置人口、农作物受灾面积和农作物成灾面积等，并且总结我国农业巨灾风险的特征。其次，利用投入产出模型从损失量角度对农业巨灾损失进行评估分析，结果表明：农业巨灾对我国的GDP有一定的影响，但影响并不大；农业巨灾的关联损失与直接损失同等重要；由农业巨灾引起的采掘业、制造业、建筑业、服务业等部门总产出的损失占农业巨灾损失的92.68％，其关联损失与直接经济损失相当；农业总产值损失对采掘业、制造业、建筑业、服务业等产业部门的影响有所差异，对制造业的影响最大。最后，以GMM模型为基础，利用我国1949—2013年农业巨灾直接损失的数据，在对面板数据处理的基础上，通过相关回归分析，研究了我国农业巨灾对经济发展的影响，得出如下结论：一是教育水平、健康水平、金融发展水平和贸易开放度对经济发展总体为正影响，但影响程度存在一定的差异。政府预算和通货膨胀对经济发展总体为负影响，并且影响显著，唯一有点差异的是政府预算对农业发展的影响不太显著。二是总体看来，我国农业巨灾对GDP影响为正但并不显著，旱灾对经济发展存在显著的负影响，洪灾对经济发展存在显著的正影响，地震对GDP、农业和服务业为负影响，台风对GDP和服务业为负影响，但并不显著，台风对工业发展产生正影响，对农业发展产生负影响。第三部分是我国农业巨灾风险分散研究。首先，对我国农业巨灾风险分散现状进行了分析。刻画了包括我国防灾减灾法律和规划、历年中央一号文件、农业保险和再保险、巨灾准备金和防灾减灾国际合作等在内的政策；总结出了财政主导模式、财政支持模式和多层次分析分散等我国农业巨灾风险分散历史模式演变；在描述我国农业巨灾风险分散情况的基础上，指出我国农业巨灾风险分散存在着农业巨灾损失总体补偿很低、农业巨灾风险分散主体分散比例不尽合理、农业巨灾风险分散主体风险分散方式增长差异较大、农业巨灾风险分散的主体不足等问题。其次，我国农业巨灾风险分散拟合分析及责任测算。根据我国目前农业巨灾风险分散的现状，建立巨灾损失救助金额和农业巨灾损失、财政支出、农业保险和社会救助之间的拟合模型，刻画出它们的数量关系，研究表明：虽然农业巨灾损失的影响较大，但两者也没有呈现明显的线性关系，这说明我国每年财政救灾支出还没有形成一套成熟的稳定机制；社会救助水平与国家经济发展密切相关，只要国家经济保持稳定的增长，再辅以制度的完善和社会文化的引导，社会救助在农业巨灾面前会发挥越来越大的作用；我国农业巨灾保险相对于发达国家，赔付额所占经济损失比例过低，即使在我国农业巨灾总救助金额中也不占主导地位，说明我国的农业巨灾保险业水平很低，但也看到其迅速增长的潜力。假定在目前的理想状态下，对政策性农业保险、再保险和准备金在农业巨灾分散中的责任进行测算，结论是在现在的农业保险政策下，当农作物投保率达到80％、保障水平为70％时，我国农业巨灾的保障水平为：1.6×保费收入+650亿准备金+ 500亿社会救助。如果保费收入为估算的平均值550亿元，则总体保障水平可达2000亿元，按照2013年的灾害损失总额5000亿元来计算，保障水平为40％。相对于发达国家的80％以上的灾害损失保障水平，我国的保障水平还是较低，但考虑到我国的自然条件、人口总量、人均经济状况等因素，这样的保障水平基本上是一个较为理想的状态。最后，我国农业巨灾风险分散行为分析。本书以三家农业保险企业的72个营销服务部或代办处作为调研样本，实证分析了农业保险企业参与农业巨灾风险分散共生合作动因、共生合作方式、互动关系、共生合作满意度和共生合作效益等，采用二元Logistic模型，研究了农业保险企业参与农业巨灾风险分散共生合作的行为选择的影响因素，研究结果显示：农业巨灾风险分散环境、农业巨灾风险分散意识、农业巨灾风险分散能力和农业巨灾风险分散方式等对农业保险企业参与农业巨灾风险分散共生合作的行为选择有显著的促进作用；合作伙伴特质、互动关系和信用制度等对农业保险企业参与农业巨灾风险分散共生合作的行为选择有影响，但不显著。另外，本书以河南省洛阳市、陕西省咸阳市、湖北省孝感市和浙江省金华市的12个县（市） 的36个自然行政村的655个农户作为有效样本，实证分析了受灾农户参与农业巨灾风险分散共生合作的共生合作动因、共生合作方式、共生合作密切程度、共生合作满意度和共生合作效益等，采用二元Logistic模型，研究了受灾农户参与农业巨灾风险分散共生合作行为选择的影响因素，研究结果表明：农业巨灾风险分散环境、受灾农户特征、农业巨灾风险分散能力、互动程度与依赖程度、风险分散方式对受灾农户参与农业巨灾风险分散共生合作的行为选择有显著的促进作用；农业巨灾风险分散意识、农业巨灾风险分散经济效益、合作伙伴特质对受灾农户参与农业巨灾风险分散共生合作的行为选择也有显著的影响。第四部分是我国农业巨灾风险分散共生机制设计。首先，基于生物学中的“共生”视角，以共生理论为基础，强调应建立农业巨灾风险分散共生系统，农业巨灾风险分散共生系统是由共生单元、共生关系和共生环境三要素所构成。其次，通过对农业巨灾风险分散共生行为模式和组织模式演进分析，指出我国农业巨灾风险共生行为模式除了完善现有的建立在信誉和政策基础之上的财政拨款、社会救济、保险补贴、税收优惠等行为外，更应该通过契约和股权建立农业巨灾风险互惠共生行为模式，并指出演进路径；我国农业巨灾风险分散共生组织模式应该向连续共生模式和一体化模式发展，实现共生组织由“虚拟共生组织”向“实体共生组织”转变。最后，我国农业巨灾风险分散共生机制和路径设计，认为该机制由共生政策机制、共生组织机制、共生行为机制和其他共生机制四个部分构成，强调结合我国农业巨灾风险及分散现状，综合共生理论和路径依赖理论，设计了农业巨灾风险分散实现路径。 关键词：农业巨灾；农业巨灾风险；农业巨灾风险分散；机制设计

This book is mainly composed of four major parts: theoretical review of agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion mechanism, agricultural catastrophe risk impact analysis, agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion research and agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion mechanism design, a total of ten chapters. The first part is a theoretical review of the agricultural catastrophe risk diversification mechanism. Agricultural catastrophe is a common problem faced by the world, China's agricultural catastrophe has a long-term profound impact on social stability and sustained and healthy economic development, although China is actively exploring the decentralized management of agricultural catastrophe risks, but there are still many problems. Agricultural catastrophe is a relative event, combined with common practices at home and abroad, using expert consultation method, after investigating 231 valid samples, it is believed that based on the measurement standards of affected farmers, agricultural insurance companies or governments, the cumulative loss of one-time disasters exceeds 50%, 30% and 1‰ of their total assets, compensation capacity and GDP, respectively, which is an agricultural catastrophe, otherwise it is a general agricultural disaster. This book studies the risk diversification of agricultural catastrophe from a macro perspective, so it is considered agricultural catastrophe when the annual loss of agricultural natural disasters exceeds 1‰ of GDP in that year. Agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion, also known as agricultural catastrophe risk transfer, is an option for agricultural catastrophe risk treatment. Under normal circumstances, after an agricultural catastrophe, farmers can choose three ways to deal with risks: risk reduction, risk retention and risk diversification. Agricultural risk diversification methods mainly include financial assistance, social donations, agricultural insurance and reinsurance, catastrophe reserves and catastrophe financial derivatives. The agricultural catastrophe risk diversification mechanism refers to a series of institutional arrangements involving policies, markets, risk transfer tools, etc., specifically the mechanism by which the agricultural catastrophe risk management entity reasonably disperses the agricultural catastrophe risk among the insurance market, capital market and government in accordance with national policies and market conditions in order to reduce the loss of agricultural catastrophe. The second part is the systematic analysis of agricultural catastrophe risk and its impact in China. Firstly, the situation of agricultural catastrophe in China is systematically described, mainly including the direct economic loss and proportion of agricultural catastrophe in previous years, the direct economic loss of the main types of agricultural catastrophe in previous years, and other situations of agricultural catastrophe in previous years, such as the affected population, the dead (including missing) population, the emergency resettlement population, the area of crop disaster and the area of crop disaster, etc., and summarizes the characteristics of China's agricultural catastrophe risk. Secondly, the input-output model is used to evaluate and analyze the loss of agricultural catastrophe, and the results show that agricultural catastrophe has a certain impact on China's GDP, but the impact is not large. Agricultural catastrophe-related losses are as important as direct losses; The loss of total output of extractive industries, manufacturing, construction, service industries and other sectors caused by agricultural catastrophe accounted for 92.68% of the agricultural catastrophe losses, and their related losses were equivalent to direct economic losses; the loss of agricultural output value had different impacts on extractive industries, manufacturing, construction, service industries and other industrial sectors, and had the greatest impact on manufacturing. Finally, based on the GMM model, using the data of direct losses of agricultural catastrophe in China from 1949 to 2013, and on the basis of panel data processing, the impact of agricultural catastrophe on economic development in China is studied through correlation regression analysis, and the following conclusions are drawn: First, the level of education, health level, financial development level and trade openness have a positive impact on economic development overall, but there are certain differences in the degree of impact. The government budget and inflation have a negative impact on economic development on the whole, and the impact is significant, the only difference is that the impact of government budgets on agricultural development is less significant. Second, on the whole, China's agricultural catastrophe has a positive but not significant impact on GDP, drought has a significant negative impact on economic development, floods have a significant positive impact on economic development, earthquakes have a negative impact on GDP, agriculture and services, typhoons have a negative impact on GDP and service industries, but they are not significant, typhoons have a positive impact on industrial development and have a negative impact on agricultural development. The third part is the study on the diversification of agricultural catastrophe risks in China. Firstly, the current situation of agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion in China is analyzed. It depicts policies including China's national defense laws and plans, Central Document No. 1 of previous years, agricultural insurance and reinsurance, catastrophe reserves, and international cooperation in disaster prevention and reduction; The evolution of the historical model of agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion in China, such as fiscal leading model, financial support model and multi-level analysis and dispersion, was summarized. On the basis of describing the dispersion of agricultural catastrophe risks in China, it is pointed out that the dispersion of agricultural catastrophe risks in China has problems such as low overall compensation for agricultural catastrophe losses, unreasonable dispersion ratio of agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion, large differences in the growth of risk dispersion methods of agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion, and insufficient dispersion of agricultural catastrophe risks. Secondly, the dispersion fitting analysis and responsibility estimation of agricultural catastrophe risk in China. According to the current situation of agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion in China, a fitting model between the amount of catastrophe loss relief and agricultural catastrophe loss, fiscal expenditure, agricultural insurance and social assistance was established, and their quantitative relationship was described, and the results showed that although the impact of agricultural catastrophe loss was greater, the two did not show an obvious linear relationship, which indicated that China's annual financial disaster relief expenditure has not yet formed a mature stable mechanism; The level of social assistance is closely related to the national economic development, as long as the national economy maintains stable growth, supplemented by the improvement of the system and the guidance of social culture, social assistance will play an increasingly important role in the face of agricultural disasters; Compared with developed countries, China's agricultural catastrophe insurance accounts for too low a proportion of economic losses, even in China's agricultural catastrophe total relief amount does not dominate, indicating that China's agricultural catastrophe insurance industry level is very low, but also see its rapid growth potential. Assuming that under the current ideal state, the responsibility of policy agricultural insurance, reinsurance and reserves in the dispersion of agricultural catastrophe is measured, and the conclusion is that under the current agricultural insurance policy, when the crop insurance rate reaches 80% and the protection level is 70%, the protection level of China's agricultural catastrophe is: 1.6× premium income + 65 billion reserves + 50 billion social assistance. If the premium income is estimated to be an average of $55 billion, the overall level of coverage can reach $200 billion, or 40% based on the total disaster loss of $500 billion in 2013. Compared with the more than 80% of the disaster loss guarantee level of developed countries, China's security level is still low, but considering China's natural conditions, total population, per capita economic situation and other factors, such a level of protection is basically a relatively ideal state. Finally, the analysis of agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion behavior in China. Taking 72 marketing service departments or agencies of three agricultural insurance enterprises as research samples, this book empirically analyzes the motivation, symbiotic cooperation mode, interaction relationship, symbiotic cooperation satisfaction and symbiotic cooperation benefits of agricultural insurance enterprises participating in agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion, and uses the binary logistic model to study the influencing factors of the behavior choice of agricultural insurance enterprises to participate in agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion and symbiotic cooperation. The ability to diversify agricultural catastrophe risks and the methods of agricultural catastrophe risk diversification have significantly promoted the behavior choices of agricultural insurance enterprises to participate in agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion and symbiotic cooperation. Partner characteristics, interaction relationships and credit systems have an impact on the behavior choices of agricultural insurance enterprises to participate in agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion and symbiotic cooperation, but they are not significant. In addition, this book takes 655 farmers in 36 natural administrative villages in 12 counties (cities) in Luoyang City, Henan Province, Xianyang City, Shaanxi Province, Xiaogan City, Hubei Province and Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province as valid samples, empirically analyzes the symbiotic cooperation drivers, symbiotic cooperation methods, symbiotic cooperation closeness, symbiotic cooperation satisfaction and symbiotic cooperation benefits of disaster-stricken farmers participating in agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion and symbiotic cooperation, and adopts a binary logistic model. The influencing factors of the behavior choices of affected farmers to participate in agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion and symbiotic cooperation were studied, and the results showed that the environment of agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion, the characteristics of disaster-affected farmers, the ability to disperse agricultural catastrophe risks, the degree of interaction and dependence, and the risk dispersion mode had significant promoting effects on the behavior choices of disaster-stricken farmers to participate in agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion and symbiotic cooperation. The awareness of agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion, the economic benefits of agricultural catastrophe risk diversification, and the characteristics of partners also have significant impacts on the behavior choices of disaster-affected farmers to participate in agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion and symbiotic cooperation. The fourth part is the design of the decentralized symbiosis mechanism of agricultural catastrophe risk in China. Firstly, based on the perspective of "symbiosis" in biology and based on the symbiosis theory, it is emphasized that an agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion symbiosis system should be established, which is composed of three elements: symbiotic unit, symbiotic relationship and symbiotic environment. Secondly, through the analysis of the evolution of the decentralized symbiotic behavior model and organizational model of agricultural catastrophe risk, it is pointed out that in addition to improving the existing financial allocation, social relief, insurance subsidies, tax incentives and other behaviors based on credibility and policies, it is also necessary to establish a reciprocal symbiotic behavior model of agricultural catastrophe risk through contracts and equity, and point out the evolution path. China's agricultural catastrophe risk scattered symbiotic organization model should develop into a continuous symbiotic model and an integrated model, and realize the transformation of symbiotic organization from "virtual symbiotic organization" to "physical symbiotic organization". Finally, the mechanism and path design of agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion in China are considered to be composed of four parts: symbiotic policy mechanism, symbiotic organization mechanism, symbiotic behavior mechanism and other symbiotic mechanisms, emphasizing that the realization path of agricultural catastrophe risk diversification is designed by combining the current situation of agricultural catastrophe risk and dispersion in China, integrating symbiosis theory and path dependence theory. Keywords: agricultural catastrophe; agricultural catastrophe risk; agricultural catastrophe risk diversification; Mechanism design（AI翻译）