我国已经迎来养老服务业发展的新时代。

这是人口老龄化快速发展的时代。中国已成为世界第一的老年人口大国，正以极其快速的态势进一步发展。根据国家统计局最新发布的人口统计数据，2018年底我国老年人口已达2.49亿人，占总人口的17.9%，其中65岁以上的老龄人口也将近1.6亿人，占11.4%。我国将在2020年前后迎来老龄人口进一步快速增长阶段，2025年，中国老年人口将突破3亿人，2040年，将突破4亿人，2050年将达到峰值的4.7亿人左右。届时全世界老龄人口约为20亿人，中国老龄人口将占其四分之一。超高龄老年人口、失能半失能老年人口、失智老年人口，以及患有慢性病的老年人口规模将在未来相当长的一段时间内持续快速增加，人口老龄化将成为影响我国经济社会发展全局的基本国情。

这是养老服务需求日益旺盛的时代。首先，我国人口老龄化的快速上升期伴随着我国家庭结构小型化、少子化的趋势，全国亿万老年人及其家庭对养老服务业发展的需求不断上涨；同时，20世纪60年代出生的人即将迈入60岁关口，他们的养老观念、消费观念和消费能力将明显区别于50年代的人，对各层次养老服务业发展的需求将更加旺盛。其次，我国经济转向高质量发展阶段，也需要发掘健康服务业、养老服务业和老年用品产业对消费主导、服务业引领、二三产业联动的产业发展新格局的推动作用。从中央到地方，都需要在人口老龄化的发展规律指导下，推动养老服务业朝着促改革、调结构、惠民生的方向稳步发展。

这是养老服务业政策规划不断涌现的时代。党的十九大指出，“积极应对人口老龄化，构建养老、孝老、敬老政策体系和社会环境，推进医养结合，加快老龄事业和产业发展”。这是对下一阶段我国出台应对人口老龄化相关政策体系的最高指示和要求。事实上，近年来，以国家政策和规划方案为引领，出台了一系列推动养老服务业发展的政策和规划。2013年《国务院关于加快发展养老服务业的若干意见》（国发〔2013〕35号）发布；2015年11月，国务院办公厅转发卫生计生委等九部门《关于推进医疗卫生与养老服务相结合的指导意见》（国办发〔2015〕84号）；2016年12月，国务院办公厅印发《关于全面放开养老服务市场 提升养老服务质量的若干意见》（国办发〔2016〕91号）；2019年，国务院办公厅印发《关于推进养老服务发展的意见》（国办发〔2019〕5号）。同时，《“健康中国2030”规划纲要》《“十三五”国家老龄事业发展和养老体系建设规划》等规划，也都在呼吁和推动养老服务业的创新发展。在政策和规划推动下，我国养老服务业得到快速发展，产业规模不断扩大，服务体系逐步完善，有效满足了老年群体日益增长的多层次、多样化养老服务需求，为及时、科学、综合应对人口老龄化提供了有力支撑。

新时期，党和国家高度关注人口老龄化态势下的养老服务业发展，养老服务业也日益成为社会各界高度关注的行业领域，从研究政策到发展实务都在积极推动养老服务业发展。

养老服务业将助力我国人口老龄化进程顺利平稳，不断向前。

China has ushered in a new era of development of the elderly care service industry. This is an era of rapid development of population aging. China has become the world's largest elderly population and is developing at an extremely rapid pace. According to the latest demographic statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of 2018, China's elderly population has reached 249 million, accounting for 17.9% of the total population, of which nearly 160 million are over 65 years old, accounting for 11.4%. China will usher in a stage of further rapid growth of the elderly population around 2020, and China's elderly population will exceed 300 million in 2025, 400 million in 2040, and a peak of about 470 million in 2050. By then, there will be about 2 billion elderly people in the world, and China will account for a quarter of them. The size of the ultra-elderly population, the disabled and semi-disabled elderly population, the elderly population with dementia, and the elderly population with chronic diseases will continue to increase rapidly for a long time in the future, and the aging of the population will become the basic national conditions affecting the overall economic and social development of China. This is an era of increasing demand for elderly care services. First of all, the rapid rise of China's aging population is accompanied by the trend of miniaturization and low birthrate of China's family structure, and the demand for the development of the elderly service industry by hundreds of millions of elderly people and their families across the country is rising; At the same time, people born in the 60s of the 20th century are about to enter the 60-year-old mark, and their pension concepts, consumption concepts and consumption power will be significantly different from those of the 50s, and the demand for the development of the elderly care service industry at all levels will be more vigorous. Secondly, China's economy has shifted to a stage of high-quality development, and it is also necessary to explore the role of the health service industry, the elderly care service industry and the elderly products industry in promoting the new pattern of industrial development dominated by consumption, led by the service industry, and linked by the secondary and tertiary industries. From the central to the local level, it is necessary to promote the steady development of the elderly care service industry in the direction of promoting reform, adjusting the structure and benefiting the people's livelihood under the guidance of the development law of population aging. This is an era in which policy planning for the elderly care service industry continues to emerge. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that "actively respond to the aging of the population, build a policy system and social environment for the elderly, filial piety and respect for the elderly, promote the integration of medical and elderly care, and accelerate the development of the cause and industry of the elderly". This is the highest instruction and requirement for the next stage of China's policy system to deal with the aging of the population. In fact, in recent years, guided by national policies and planning programs, a series of policies and plans to promote the development of the elderly care service industry have been introduced. In 2013, the Several Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Development of the Elderly Care Service Industry (Guo Fa [2013] No. 35) were released; In November 2015, the General Office of the State Council forwarded the Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Integration of Medical and Health Care and Elderly Care Services (Guo Ban Fa [2015] No. 84) from nine departments including the Health and Family Planning Commission; In December 2016, the General Office of the State Council issued Several Opinions on Comprehensively Opening the Elderly Care Service Market and Improving the Quality of Elderly Care Services (Guo Ban Fa [2016] No. 91); In 2019, the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Promoting the Development of Elderly Care Services (Guo Ban Fa [2019] No. 5). At the same time, plans such as the "Healthy China 2030" Planning Outline and the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" National Aging Cause Development and Pension System Construction Plan are also calling for and promoting the innovative development of the elderly care service industry. Under the promotion of policies and plans, China's elderly care service industry has developed rapidly, the industrial scale has been expanded, and the service system has been gradually improved, which has effectively met the growing multi-level and diversified elderly care service needs of the elderly group, and provided strong support for timely, scientific and comprehensive response to population aging. In the new era, the party and the state pay great attention to the development of the elderly care service industry under the trend of aging population, and the elderly care service industry has increasingly become an industry field of great concern from all walks of life, from research policies to development practices are actively promoting the development of the elderly care service industry. The elderly care service industry will help China's population aging process to be smooth and stable, and continue to move forward.（AI翻译）