摘要：战略性新兴产业对中国国家发展具有极其重大的战略意义，对产业结构转型升级亦至关重要。有关产业政策自2010年出台以来，已近十年。关于产业政策的争论不少，但结合产业政策研究其理论基础、政策效果、实际状况及作用机制的成果仍然较少。

为此，本报告尝试进行关于战略性新兴产业政策理论、实践与机制研究，重点选择了显示、集成电路、新能源汽车、钢铁环保（烧结脱硝）四个典型的产业及其政策，运用以产业链和价值链结合分析为基础的整合性政策分析方法（Industrial Chain and Value-Chain Based Holistic Policy Analysis, ICVC-HPA）进行分析、评估乃至揭示战略性新兴产业的发展与产业政策的关系，探究战略性新兴产业政策的理论、目标、架构、工具体系、机制和效果。

本报告通过战略性新兴产业案例及其政策的分析发现：第一，对这些产业的政策及其作用，有些不同看法，甚至有政策争论，但事实是这些政策已经不同程度地推动了这些产业的发展，政策目标已经基本或者初步实现：显示产业生产已位居全球领先地位，技术进入全球第一方阵；集成电路产业在已有基础之上近几年在规模和结构两方面都开始了突破性的较快发展；新能源汽车产业初步形成中国企业有发言权的技术及生产体系、规模已居全球领先；钢铁环保（烧结脱硝）技术近年取得了重要的产业化创新突破，将帮助提升钢铁业环保水平。

第二，产业创新及发展，企业家及企业的创新及努力拼搏是根本，产业的技术和市场条件、产业基础及改革开放的环境是条件约束，产业政策有重要作用甚至不可或缺。产业政策的作用总体上是支持性、激励性甚至只是补充性的，但在产业站立成本（set up cost，指追赶国家产业的企业发展到有自生能力时需要支付的成本）还没解决时却是产业发展的必要条件。

第三，尽管不同产业具体的政策目标及措施情况不尽相同，亦存在一些不足，但总体来看，四个产业的政策目标方向明确和合适，政策措施基本合理，并能与时俱进调整完善。集成电路和新能源汽车的政策目标总体看一直比较合理，不足主要出在具体政策目标及政策工具的协调配套方面，如果集成电路产业能更早出台配套的资本支持政策，产业发展可能会更快些。国家一直肯定显示产业发展的方向，过去政策方面的突出问题是缺乏资本支持政策，后来靠地方政府资本支持和国家政策的事后调整，瓶颈问题得以解决，产业发展基本成功。钢铁环保中十分重要的烧结脱硝（脱除氮氧化物）技术产业化发展，过去一直较慢，不是国家不重视脱硝，而是由于环境标准过低及监管不到位不能对有关技术的开发产生足够的有效激励。

第四，产业政策的效果不仅与政策及其配套、实施的方式有关，还与政策形成及调整的基本机制，与如何处理政府政策与市场的具体关系有关。这些产业政策之所以能有较好的作用和效果，重要原因是有关政策顺应了产业及企业的需求，与市场机制能有机结合。主要表现在以下四方面。

一是政策目标方向及主要措施，总体地看与案例产业及其主要企业基于能力和战略产生的政策需求相符。即这些产业在关键的方面、关键的时候得到了必要的关键支持。显示产业得到政府资本政策支持，集成电路产业得到政府研发和资本政策支持，新能源汽车得到供求及环境设施等方面的政策支持，钢铁环保企业得到提高标准拉动市场的政策激励，都是符合企业战略需求的关键性的政策安排。

二是政策与市场机制结合。政策重视利用和提高市场的竞争性，中国这些产业都十分开放，中国市场是国际性的、竞争性的；政策根据市场业绩选择支持对象，重点支持产业发展及创新的领先者；政策形成及调整过程中，政府与企业沟通比较充分，较少有过去或者其他领域的政府单方面决策强推的做法。

三是立足中国国情，根据产业的不同情况及发展阶段进行政策方案设计和工具选择。政府给显示、集成电路产业必要的资本支持、新能源汽车的购车补贴规则等，都是根据中国国情和产业情况的政策选择。

四是政策工具及其组合的使用方式，按与市场和企业创新发展规律接轨原则设计、选择乃至进行必要的政策创新，对改进政策机制、提高政策效率、实现政策目标有重要意义。如政府投资支持不确定性较大的战略性新兴产业，用风险投资、基金投资和“非行政主导型”的国企投资方式进行投资，是有意义的政策工具创新，并且已经取得积极成效。

第五，政府和企业之间互动式的政策形成与调整方式及其过程，是案例产业政策比较成功的基本原因。这几个行业中的重要企业都曾经因为政策不够完善甚至具体的政策方向问题而困惑、无奈，最后也因政府根据企业信息及时进行的政策协调及调整而获益。

第六，具体的政策目标及其措施出现问题的重要原因往往是：信息不够，对追赶中国家企业及产业创新成功的具体规律认识不够，对中国企业的技术和发展能力和对国家政策工具选择范围及使用方法的认识存在偏差。进一步完善政策还需要注意以下三点。

一是需要按照市场决定资源配置和政府合理干预结合的原则，根据企业及产业创新能力形成全过程中，知识形成及其与企业及国家创新系统的组织资源和能力的不同关系，问题导向，深入研究包括产业技术政策等的产业政策的体系、工具及其使用方式和机制，研究相应的政策协调体系和责任。

二是需要研究产业政策使用政府投资工具的条件和可能带来的产能过剩等问题。在一般的竞争性产业领域，政府用通过投资直接支持产业发展的情况应该逐渐减少；在发展不确定性较大的高技术及资本密集的战略性产业，如集成电路产业，在创业阶段或在开始成长阶段，政府给予资本支持往往不可或缺；政府资本支持集成电路产业可能带来产能过剩的问题，与产业政策有一定关系，更与中国现行的政治经济及财政体制的问题有关；在中国现行经济体制下，在资本支持政策的重要产业，需要研究国家合理的产业投资的政策的目标、机制及其工具手段。

三是需要研究国际经济，环境变化对产业政策及其工具选择的影响。中美贸易摩擦会对政策选择、使用方式及很重要的“政策解读”等提出问题，甚至挑战。中国需要正视中国产业及贸易体量大带来的影响，进行相应的政策说明和必要的协调，提高政策透明度。

关键词：战略性新兴产业；产业政策；作用机制

Abstract:Strategic emerging industries are of great strategic significance to China's development and are also crucial to the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. It has been nearly a decade since the introduction of relevant industrial policies in 2010. Despite of many debates on industrial policies, there have been fewstudies on their theoretical basis, policy effectiveness, actual situation and functional mechanism.

Therefore, this report made an attempt to study the theory, practice and mechanism of policies for strategic emerging industries through analysis, evaluation, and even design and adjustment of four typical industries, i.e., display, integrated circuit, new energy automobile and steel environmental protection（sinteringdenitration）, and their policies based on the method of Industrial Chain and ValueChain Based Holistic Policy Analysis（ICVC-HPA）. We unraveled the relationship between the development of strategic emerging industries and industrial policies, and studied the theory,goal,framework,instrument system,mechanism and effectiveness of those policies.

Through analysis of typical strategic emerging industries and industrial polices, the report finds that：

1.Despite of differences and even disputes on those industrial policies and their role, they have actually contribu ted to the development of those industries more and less, and the policy objectives have been basically or preliminarily achieved. The display industry holds a leading position in the world in production and its technology is among the best in the world. The integrated circuit industry has accelerated development in scale and structure in recent years. In new energy automobile industry, an advanced technology and production system has preliminarily been taken shape, which helped improve the international status of Chinese enterprises. Besides, the industry scale has taken the lead in the world. With regard to the steel industry, important industrial innovation and breakthroughs has been made in the environmental protection（sintering denitration）technology, which will help enhance the environment protection standards of the steel industry.

2.The development of strategic emerging industries fundamentally relies on industrial innovation and development, and the innovation and hard work of entrepreneurs and enterprises. Its booming is conditioned upon mature industrial technology, favorable market conditions, solid industrial basis and the reform and opening up. Among them, industrial policies play an important and even indispensable role. In general, industrial policies are supportive, motivational and even supplemental. However, they are an essen tial condition for industrial development if the issue of set up cost（which means the cost paid by underdeveloped enterprises to gain viability）remains unresolved.

3. Although the policy objectives and measures of different industries may be different and have shortcomings, the four industries have identified clear and appropriate policy objectives and basically reasonable policy measures, which can be adjusted and improved as time goes on. The integrated circuit and new energy automobile industries have established reasonable policy objectives in general, which, however,have drawbacks in specific policy targets and policy instrument coordination. The integrated circuit industry, for example, would grow faster if the supporting policies of capital support were introduced earlier. China has always affirmed the development direction of the display industry. In the past, the main problem was the lack of capital support policies, which was later tackled with the capital support of local governments and adjustment of national policies, resulting in significant industrial development. For the environmental-protection steel industry, the industrial development of sintering denitration（removal of nitrogen oxides）technology has always been important. It developed slowly in the past,not because of the country's neglect,but lack of effective incentives due to low environmental stand ards and inadequate supervision.

4. The effect of industrial policies is not only related to specific policies, supporting policies and their implementation methods, but also depends on the basic mechanism of policy formulation and adjustment,and how to deal with the relationship between government policies and the market. An important reason for the good results brought by those industrial policies is that they cater to the relevant industries and enterprises and can be effectively combined with the market mechanism.

（1）In general, the policy goals and main measures are in line with the policy demands of relevant industries and major enterprises for stronger capacity and strategy. That is to say,these industries have received necessary support in key areas at key times. The display industry receives support from government capital policies;the integrated circuit industry accepts government R&D and capital support;the new energy automobile industry benefits from the increasing demand and environment, infrastructure and other policies; the environmental-protection steel industry is also supported by the policies of raising standards and driving the market. All those are key policies that are formulated and implemented to meet corporate strategic demands.

（2）Combine the policies and the market mechanism.Policies are formulated to utilize and improve market competitiveness of these industries as they are widely open to the outside world and the Chinese market is international and competitive. The objects receiving policy support are selected according to their market performance, with key support directing to leading players of industrial development and innovation. During policy formulation and adjustment,thanks to the full communication between the government and enterprises, the government's unilateral enforcement of decisions which occurred in the past or occurs in other fields seldom takes place.

（3）By taking China's actual conditions into consideration,policy design and instrument selection is conducted according to different conditions and development stages of relevant industries. The government provides necessary capital backing to the display and integrated circuit industries. For the new energy automobile industry,subsidies are granted to purchasers of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles（PHEV）. All these policies are formulated according to China's actual conditions and present situation of relevant industries.

（4）Policy instruments and their combinations are designed, selected and innovated based on the principle of keeping the laws of corporate innovative development in line with the market, which is of great significance to improving policy mechanism, enhancing policy efficiency and achieving policy objectives. For example, when supporting those strategic emerging industries with great uncertainty in development, the government prefers to choose venture investment mode,fund investment mode,or“non-administrationled”investment mode that prevails in state-owned enterprises. Such practices are meaningful innovation of policy instruments and have obtained positive results.

5. The success of the industrial policy cases may owe to the interactive method and process of policy formulation and adjustment between the government and enterprises. Many major enterprises in these industries have been confused and even helpless about imperfect policies and the issue of specific policy directions. But ultimately, they benefit from the government's timely policy coordination and adjustment according to actual situations.

6. The problems identified in the process of pursuing specific policy targets and implementing measures are often attributable to the following items: insufficient information;inadequate understanding of the laws of successful stories of catching up with Chinese leading enterprises and industrial innovation; and misunderstanding of Chinese enterprises' technology and development capability, and deviation from selection range and proper use of national policy instru ments. The following suggestions should be considered in order to further improve the policies.

（1）We should follow the principle of combining the market's deciding role of resources allocation and the government's reasonable intervention; take into account the knowledge formation and accumulation mechanism, and its different relationships with the organizational resources and capacity of corporate and national innovation systems in the whole process of corporate and industrial innovation and capacity development;keep problem-oriented;further study the system,instruments and their usage and mechanism of industrial policies including industrial technology polices;and coordinate the responsibility of formulating policies as necessary.

（2）In formulating industrial policies,attention should be paid to the potential excess production capacity in using government investment tools, and how to tackle such problem. In competitive industries, the government will gradually provide fewer direct investments to support industrial development. In high-tech and capital intensive strategic industries with great uncertainty in development such as the integrated circuit industry, the government capital support is absolutely necessary in the entrepreneurial stage or early growth stage. The potential problem of excess production capacity caused by government providing capital support to the integrated circuit industry is related to industrial policies,but it has more to do with China's existing political,economic and financial systems. Under China's current economic system, we should get insight into the significance and basic framework of national guidance on industrial investment policies for those industries that rely heavily on capital support policies.

（3）Attention should be paid to the impact of international economic condition change on the choice of industrial policy instruments. The China-US trade conflict will trigger questions and pose challenges to policy selection, application and even the important“policy interpretation”. China must face up to the change of international income transfer brought by Chinese massive industries and trade volume,as well as the consequential international economic and political problems.

Keywords: Strategic Emerging Industries, Industries Policy, Functional Mechanism