本书首先对新中国成立以来的经济增长过程进行系统分析，依据中国制度变迁的时点和经济周期的划分，将中国经济增长阶段进行切分，并重点对1992年以来的经济增长基于供给结构进行了分解，目的在于探究中国经济平稳增长的机理、过程和结果。

1978年改革开放以来，特别是1994年进行分税制改革、金融改革等一系列改革后，中国经济进入了高速平稳的增长阶段，获得了10%以上的平均增长速度。但国际金融危机爆发后，这种情况发生了改变，国内经济增长减速，结构性问题凸显。从供给结构的角度，经过系统研究，分析了上述问题出现的原因，得出以下五点主要结论。

（1）与改革开放前相比，中国经济增长的平稳性先表现为波动性降低，再分周期逐步表现为增长获得了稳定的趋势。国际金融危机后，经济增长从依靠出口和投资拉动向主要依靠投资驱动转变。

（2）通过对中国经济增长机制的分析发现，中国经济增长主要是在经济分权制度激励下地方政府、企业形成投资偏好后博弈均衡的结果，而非一般均衡的产物。地方政府在乘数—加速原理作用下，企业在“干中学”和“模仿—套利”机制作用下，形成较强的投资偏好，并在财政政策的直接参与和货币政策的协同下，促进投资不断增加。但从长期看，由于资本本身具有投入的不可逆性以及资本快速深化会带来资本边际效率递减的作用，无论从微观角度还是宏观角度看，过度投资的结果都将导致“投资悖论”现象的出现。

（3）从供给结构角度侧重分析了1992年以后中国经济增长的质量，可以明显地发现，虽然随着经济的平稳增长，三次产业结构不断优化，但与发达国家相比，就业结构的调整明显慢于增加值结构的调整，第一产业劳动生产率改进较快，可以有效地支撑未来产业结构调整，而第二、第三产业的劳动生产效率改进则相对较慢，可能会影响未来三次产业的进一步优化。从不同生产要素对经济增长的贡献看，资本对经济增长的贡献最大，但其投入的增长率明显快于经济增长的速度，表现出粗放的特征。全要素生产率增长率虽然呈现一定的波动状态，但从不同产权组织形式的工业企业技术进步的情况看，技术进步是正的。而通过对技术进步来源的分解发现，技术进步主要来源于规模和效率，缺乏纯技术进步，说明没有发生创新驱动。

（4）在未来向创新驱动转变的过程中存在的主要问题包括：利用信贷扩张引诱投资，导致物质资本跨期错配，使局部产能过剩，金融危机后，随着外需的大量减少，有整体性产能过剩的趋势；投资的“干中学”招致了模仿套利和过度竞争，压抑了技术创新的内在动力；在人力资本投资和积累过程中，缺少创新型人才产生的机制和环境，使创新基础薄弱。

（5）中国选择现有的经济增长方式有其合理性和进步性，扩大了经济主体的经济自主性，也是追赶型国家受初始要素禀赋的制约、突破“贫困陷阱”的要求，是向市场经济转型的中间过程。由于中国市场化改革的不完全和不均衡，后端的产品市场的市场化进程较快，前端的要素市场仍未从计划经济中“脱胎”，处于指令或半指令状态，同时市场化改革快于市场的制度和机制建设，在不健全的制度和不完善的市场中，地方政府有机会利用生产要素市场，扭曲要素价格，使要素偏离市场机制而配置。此外，在可竞争的市场中，引入“竞争机制”却缺少规范的竞争秩序，使市场的协作性降低，恶性竞争加剧，使过度进入的企业被压制在极小的利润空间中，古典式竞争的结果是产业集中度降低，企业技术创新受阻。

因此建议：未来应完善社会主义市场经济制度和机制建设，协调人力资本投资和物质资本投资的关系，加强对技术创新能力的培养，提高宏观调控的能力和水平，转变经济增长方式，优化供给结构，使经济继续保持平稳快速增长。

本书是2012年度国家社会科学基金重大项目“正确处理经济平稳较快发展、调整经济结构、管理通胀预期的关系研究”（12&ZD038）和2014年国家社会科学基金一般项目“对中国不同发展阶段减排目标的碳排放权分配机制研究”（14BJL101）的阶段性研究成果，并感谢首都经济贸易大学2016年促进高校内涵发展定额学术骨干培养计划——后备学科带头人项目的资助。

This book first makes a systematic analysis of the economic growth process since the founding of New China, divides the stages of China's economic growth according to the time point of China's institutional change and the division of economic cycle, and focuses on the decomposition of economic growth since 1992 based on the supply structure, aiming to explore the mechanism, process and results of China's stable economic growth. Since the reform and opening up in 1978, especially after a series of reforms such as the reform of the tax-sharing system and the financial reform in 1994, China's economy has entered a stage of rapid and stable growth, achieving an average growth rate of more than 10%. However, after the outbreak of the international financial crisis, this situation changed, domestic economic growth slowed down, and structural problems became prominent. From the perspective of supply structure, after systematic research, the reasons for the emergence of the above problems are analyzed, and the following five main conclusions are drawn. (1) Compared with before the reform and opening up, the stability of China's economic growth is first manifested in reduced volatility, and then gradually manifested in a stable trend in cyclical intervals. After the international financial crisis, economic growth shifted from relying on exports and investment to relying mainly on investment. (2) Through the analysis of China's economic growth mechanism, it is found that China's economic growth is mainly the result of game equilibrium after local governments and enterprises form investment preferences under the incentive of economic decentralization system, rather than the product of general equilibrium. Under the multiplier-acceleration principle, local governments have formed a strong investment preference under the role of "learning by doing" and "imitation-arbitrage" mechanisms, and promoted increasing investment with the direct participation of fiscal policy and the coordination of monetary policy. However, in the long run, due to the irreversibility of capital itself and the rapid deepening of capital will lead to the diminishing marginal efficiency of capital, whether from a micro or macro perspective, the result of excessive investment will lead to the emergence of the phenomenon of "investment paradox". (3) From the perspective of supply structure, the quality of China's economic growth after 1992 is analyzed, and it can be clearly found that although with the steady growth of the economy, the tertiary industrial structure has been continuously optimized, but compared with developed countries, the adjustment of the employment structure is significantly slower than the adjustment of the value-added structure, and the labor productivity of the primary industry improves rapidly, which can effectively support the future industrial structure adjustment, while the improvement of labor productivity in the secondary and tertiary industries is relatively slow, which may affect the further optimization of the future tertiary industry. From the perspective of the contribution of different production factors to economic growth, capital contributes the most to economic growth, but the growth rate of its input is significantly faster than the speed of economic growth, showing extensive characteristics. Although the growth rate of total factor productivity showed a certain fluctuation state, it was positive in terms of technological progress in different forms of WIPO industrial enterprises. Through the decomposition of the sources of technological progress, it is found that technological progress mainly comes from scale and efficiency, and the lack of pure technological progress indicates that there is no innovation drive. (4) The main problems in the future transformation to innovation-driven include: the use of credit expansion to lure investment, resulting in intertemporal misallocation of physical capital, resulting in partial overcapacity, and after the financial crisis, with the large reduction of external demand, there is a trend of overall overcapacity; The "learning by doing" of investment has led to imitation arbitrage and excessive competition, suppressing the internal motivation of technological innovation; In the process of investment and accumulation of human capital, there is a lack of mechanism and environment for generating innovative talents, which makes the innovation foundation weak. (5) China's choice of the existing economic growth mode is reasonable and progressive, expanding the economic autonomy of economic subjects, and it is also a catch-up country constrained by the initial factor endowment, breaking through the "poverty trap", and is an intermediate process of the transition to a market economy. Due to the incomplete and unbalanced reform of the Chinese market, the marketization process of the back-end product market is relatively fast, the front-end factor market has not yet been "reborn" from the planned economy, in a state of instruction or semi-directive, and at the same time, the market-oriented reform is faster than the construction of the market's system and mechanism, and in the imperfect system and imperfect market, local governments have the opportunity to use the production factor market, distort factor prices, and make factors deviate from the market mechanism and configure. In addition, in the contestable market, the introduction of "competition mechanism" but lack of standardized competition order, so that the market cooperation is reduced, vicious competition intensifies, so that excessive enterprises are suppressed in a very small profit margin, the result of classical competition is that industrial concentration is reduced, enterprise technological innovation is hindered. Therefore, it is suggested that in the future, we should improve the construction of the socialist market economy system and mechanism, coordinate the relationship between human capital investment and physical capital investment, strengthen the cultivation of technological innovation ability, improve the ability and level of macro-control, transform the mode of economic growth, optimize the supply structure, and continue to maintain steady and rapid economic growth. This book is the phased research results of the 2012 National Social Science Foundation major project "Research on the Relationship between Correctly Handling Stable and Rapid Economic Development, Adjusting Economic Structure, and Managing Inflation Expectations" (12&ZD038) and the 2014 National Social Science Foundation General Project "Research on the Carbon Emission Allowance Allocation Mechanism of China's Different Development Stages of Emission Reduction Targets" (14BJL101), and thanks the Capital University of Economics and Business for the 2016 Academic Backbone Training Program for Promoting the Development of University Connotation—— Funding for the Reserve Discipline Leader Program.（AI翻译）