Since 2019,China's employment situation has changed from the past stable situation and become confusing.The survey shows that the unemployment rate hasclimbed to 5.3% twice but fell back quickly,risk factors flashing fast.We should take a vigilant view of the current employment.We can say that there are changes in stability and worries in change.

Presently,China's employment problem is mainly structural,including six dimensions: 1.In terms of industries,affected by many factors,six major manufacturing industries such as automobile,electronic communication,textile,construction,real estate,information service and other employment problems are relatively prominent.2.By region,the employment situation in Northeast China and Beijing Tianjin Hebei region is the most urgent.3.From the perspective of the system of ownership,the private economy is in a big dilemma,the employment growth has slowed down significantly,and the employment boom has fallen sharply.4.The situation of small and micro enterprises is in a downturn,and the employment sponge function is weakened.5.In terms of employment forms,the collapse of mass entrepreneurship and innovation enterprises makes the growth of self employment sluggish; the strict urban management systemmakes the number of flexible employment in the traditional form drop significantly,and it will take time to test whether the new employment forms can be supplemented in time.6.In terms of labor groups,the employment pressure of college students has reached a new high,but it is close to the end of the flood peak;the unemployment problem of young people aged 20-29 is the most serious,especially those aged 20-24.Another is junior high school education.

In the future,there will be multiple factors impacting China's employment,including both long-term trend factors represented by technologi cal progress and short-term factors represented by trade war.The combination of the two factors makes the evolution of the employment situation more complicated.

The first risk point is upgrading of trade friction between China and the United States,which is the biggest risk in the short term.The impact of trade frictions on China's employment is likely to be non-linear and non-equilibrium: firstly,because the types of levy are not concentrated in labor-intensive industries,and the scope of the levy is small,the impact on employment is not very obvious.Once the United States focus on labor-intensive industries and continues to raise tariffs,reaching a certain criti cal point,in some industries and in some regions there will be sudden possibility of igniting unemployment risk.Now the most important thing to guard against is the centralized release of risks.

Among the industries exported to the United States,nine industries,such as general equipment manufacturing industry,should pay special attention.They account for more than 70% of the direct employees in the export industry to the United States.For these industries,the criti cal range of tariff increase that triggers unemployment risk is slightly lower than 25%.Further calculation shows that at present,the general equipment manufacturing industry,electri cal machinery and equipment manufacturing industry,metal products industry,rubber and plastic products industry may have reached the unemployment risk point,with nearly 5 million production personnel directly engaged in exports to the United States.

Asto geographi cal distribution,the general equipment manufacturing industries exported to the United States are typi cally located in Wuxi and Changzhou,Jiangsu Province,Qingdao and Linyi,Shandong Province,Wenzhou and Ningbo,Zhejiang Province;the electri cal machinery and equipment manufacturing industries are typi cally lo cated in Suzhou and Changzhou,Jiangsu Province,Jinan,Shandong Province,Foshan and Dongguan,Guangdong Province; the metal products industry is typi cally located in Jinhua,Zhejiang Province,Wuxi and Changzhou,Jiangsu Province The rubber and plastic products industry is typi cally distributed in Ningbo,Taizhou,Wenzhou,Foshan,Dongguan,etc.

The above areas should strengthen early warning and take some measures to prevent employment risk in related industries.

The second risk point is that the deficit of enterprises is deepening.If it continues,it may lead to the collapse of enterprises,especially for weak private small and medium-sized enterprises,abandoning a large number of emploees to labor market.

The third risk point is that the current industrial operation difficulties may be further transmitted to producer services,which are highly sensitive to industrial prosperity.These industries such as warehousing and logistics,information transmission not only absorb a large number of labor,many are still high-quality jobs.The impact will not only attack number but also quality of employment.

The fourth risk point is that technologi cal progress devour employment.This is a long-term factor,and a number of indicators show that China's technologi cal progress may be crossing a threshold to accelerate the exclusion of labor,which is very obvious in the manufacturing industry.

The fifth risk point is that the increasing financial pressure limits the ability of the government to directly intervene in employment.The government should make a more difficult choice between deficit finance and employment intervention.

Based on above,we predict the employment situation in 2019-2020.If China's economic growth rate is 6.2% in 2019,then the increase of non-agricultural employment is only 4 million,down nearly 2.3 million from the previous year,which is enough to prove the grim situation this year.Further,if China can still maintain the growth rate of 6.2% in 2020,the non-agricultural employment growth will be recovered.However,it should be noted that this recovery is mainly driven by the traditional service industries with low productivity,such as wholesale and retail,accommodation and catering,leasing and business services,which will not only lower the total factor production rate,but also lower the quality of employment.To a certain extent,it is at the expense of the quality of employment.

For the future employment situation in China,we should look at it in two ways：

First,China's employment has enough toughness.With the continuous growth of the economic volume,even a slower economic growth can create enough jobs.Coupled with the decline of the working age population,it is unlikely that large-s cale unemployment will occur again.In this case,the relationship between macroeconomic variables may change differently than before,especially the response of unemployment rate to economic growth rate may become more peaceful,correspondingly,the Phillips curve becomes more gentle,which is a new operation law of labor market.

Secondly,the basic contradiction of the labor market is transforming,that is,from quantitative contradiction to qualitative contradiction.Looking into the future,it is unlikely that there will be a large area of unemployment.The problem is that the quality of employment is not high or even declining.At present,China is crossing the middleincome trap,and low-quality employment cannot fulfill this mission.How to improve the quality of employment is an important issue of our times.

In order to improve the stability of short-term employment and the quality of long-term employment,we put forward the following policy suggestions: 1.Formulate Specialized measures for lo cal industries and regions where trade friction may induce unemployment risk.2.Special solutions should be studied for the industries such as automobiles and mobile phones that are facing great difficulties in the near future.These measures are not isolated,but should be combined with industrial policy,consumption policy,tax policy and traffic management policy.3.We should pay attention to the difficulties faced by small and micro private enterprises,reduce their burden frommultiple dimensions,and support policies should be combined with employment goals.4.Relax the restrictions on the night economy of the stall economy,and expand the living space for flexible employment.5.In the process of technologi cal progress,we should correct the market Failure through government intervention,guiding the employment behavior of enterprises through employment subsidies and other tools,and pay more attention to young unemployed groups.6.We should continue to play a positive role in fis cal policy and create more jobs with special debt and other tools,but we should also take into account the possible negative consequences of deficit finance,not neglecting the balance between deficit finance and employment goals.7.Reconstruct futural employment policy system,the active employment policy should be more active,and the goal should be shifted from full employment to full employment of high quality; the passive employment policy should be more perfect,improving the social safety net,and prepare for the bottom in future,prevention in advance.

Key Words: Employment Contradiction,Structural,Risk Point,Countermeasure Research

Since 2019,China's employment situation has changed from the past stable situation and become confusing. The survey shows that the unemployment rate hasclimbed to 5.3% twice but fell back quickly,risk factors flashing fast. We should take a vigilant view of the current employment. We can say that there are changes in stability and worries in change. Presently,China's employment problem is mainly structural,including six dimensions: 1.In terms of industries,affected by many factors,six major manufacturing industries such as automobile,electronic communication,textile,construction,real estate,information service and other employment problems are relatively prominent.2.By region,the employment situation in Northeast China and Beijing Tianjin Hebei region is the most urgent.3.From the perspective of the system of ownership,the private economy is in a big dilemma,the employment growth has slowed down significantly,and the employment boom has fallen sharply.4.The situation of small and micro enterprises is in a downturn,and the employment sponge function is weakened.5.In terms of employment forms,the collapse of mass entrepreneurship and innovation enterprises makes the growth of self employment sluggish; the strict urban management systemmakes the number of flexible employment in the traditional form drop significantly,and it will take time to test whether the new employment forms can be supplemented in time.6.In terms of labor groups,the employment pressure of college students has reached a new high,but it is close to the end of the flood peak; the unemployment problem of young people aged 20-29 is the most serious,especially those aged 20-24.Another is junior high school education. In the future,there will be multiple factors impacting China's employment,including both long-term trend factors represented by technologi cal progress and short-term factors represented by trade war. The combination of the two factors makes the evolution of the employment situation more complicated. The first risk point is upgrading of trade friction between China and the United States,which is the biggest risk in the short term. The impact of trade frictions on China's employment is likely to be non-linear and non-equilibrium: firstly,because the types of levy are not concentrated in labor-intensive industries,and the scope of the levy is small,the impact on employment is not very obvious. Once the United States focus on labor-intensive industries and continues to raise tariffs,reaching a certain criti cal point,in some industries and in some regions there will be sudden possibility of igniting unemployment risk. Now the most important thing to guard against is the centralized release of risks. Among the industries exported to the United States,nine industries,such as general equipment manufacturing industry,should pay special attention. They account for more than 70% of the direct employees in the export industry to the United States.For these industries,the criti cal range of tariff increase that triggers unemployment risk is slightly lower than 25%. Further calculation shows that at present,the general equipment manufacturing industry,electri cal machinery and equipment manufacturing industry,metal products industry,rubber and plastic products industry may have reached the unemployment risk point,with nearly 5 million production personnel directly engaged in exports to the United States.Asto geographi cal distribution,the general equipment manufacturing industries exported to the United States are typi cally located in Wuxi and Changzhou,Jiangsu Province,Qingdao and Linyi,Shandong Province ,Wenzhou and Ningbo,Zhejiang Province; the electri cal machinery and equipment manufacturing industries are typi cally lo cated in Suzhou and Changzhou,Jiangsu Province,Jinan,Shandong Province,Foshan and Dongguan,Guangdong Province; the metal products industry is typi cally located in Jinhua,Zhejiang Province,Wuxi and Changzhou,Jiangsu Province The rubber and plastic products industry is typi cally distributed in Ningbo, Taizhou,Wenzhou,Foshan,Dongguan,etc. The above areas should strengthen early warning and take some measures to prevent employment risk in related industries. The second risk point is that the deficit of enterprises is deepening. If it continues,it may lead to the collapse of enterprises,especially for weak private small and medium-sized enterprises,abandoning a large number of emploees to labor market. The third risk point is that the current industrial operation difficulties may be further transmitted to producer services,which are highly sensitive to industrial prosperity. These industries such as warehousing and logistics,information transmission not only absorb a large number of labor,many are still high-quality jobs. The impact will not only attack number but also quality of employment. The fourth risk point is that technologi cal progress devour employment. This is a long-term factor,and a number of indicators show that China's technologi cal progress may be crossing a threshold to accelerate the exclusion of labor,which is very obvious in the manufacturing industry. The fifth risk point is that the increasing financial pressure limits the ability of the government to directly intervene in employment. The government should make a more difficult choice between deficit finance and employment intervention. Based on above,we predict the employment situation in 2019-2020.If China's economic growth rate is 6.2% in 2019,then the increase of non-agricultural employment is only 4 million,down nearly 2.3 million from the previous year,which is enough to prove the grim situation this year. Further,if China can still maintain the growth rate of 6.2% in 2020,the non-agricultural employment growth will be recovered. However,it should be noted that this recovery is mainly driven by the traditional service industries with low productivity,such as wholesale and retail,accommodation and catering,leasing and business services,which will not only lower the total factor production rate,but also lower the quality of employment. To a certain extent,it is at the expense of the quality of employment. For the future employment situation in China,we should look at it in two ways：First,China's employment has enough toughness. With the continuous growth of the economic volume,even a slower economic growth can create enough jobs. Coupled with the decline of the working age population,it is unlikely that large-s cale unemployment will occur again. In this case,the relationship between macroeconomic variables may change differently than before,especially the response of unemployment rate to economic growth rate may become more peaceful ,correspondingly,the Phillips curve becomes more gentle,which is a new operation law of labor market. Secondly,the basic contradiction of the labor market is transforming,that is,from quantitative contradiction to qualitative contradiction. Looking into the future,it is unlikely that there will be a large area of unemployment. The problem is that the quality of employment is not high or even declining. At present,China is crossing the middleincome trap,and low-quality employment cannot fulfill this mission. How to improve the quality of employment is an important issue of our times. In order to improve the stability of short-term employment and the quality of long-term employment,we put forward the following policy suggestions: 1.Formulate Specialized measures for lo cal industries and regions where trade friction may induce unemployment risk.2.Special solutions should be studied for the industries such as automobiles and mobile phones that are facing great difficulties in the near future. These measures are not isolated,but should be combined with industrial policy,consumption policy,tax policy and traffic management policy.3.We should pay attention to the difficulties faced by small and micro private enterprises,reduce their burden frommultiple dimensions,and support policies should be combined with employment goals.4.Relax the restrictions on the night economy of the stall economy,and expand the living space for flexible employment.5.In the process of technologi cal progress,we should correct the market Failure through government intervention,guiding the employment behavior of enterprises through employment subsidies and other tools,and pay more attention to young unemployed groups.6.We should continue to play a positive role in fis cal policy and create more jobs with special debt and other tools,but we should also take into account the possible negative consequences of deficit finance,not neglecting the balance between deficit finance and employment goals.7.Reconstruct futural employment policy system,the active employment policy should be more active,and the goal should be shifted from full employment to full employment of high quality; the passive employment policy should be more perfect,improving the social safety net,and prepare for the bottom in future,prevention in advance. Key Words: Employment Contradiction,Structural,Risk Point,Countermeasure Research（AI翻译）