工业化以来，经济发展从某种意义上说就是微观市场的分工深化、中观视角的产业分化和宏观环境的区域经济增长异化过程。其中，不同区域、不同层次的主导产业兴衰更替是这一经济现象的例证。主导产业的形成和发展有其历史背景、区域特征和战略契机，在契合市场演化路径趋势中选择合适的主导产业，顺应世界分工机制并积极介入产业链环节，以此明确产业发展坐标并获得发展先机，最终转化产业优势为区域经济竞争优势。正因如此，区域主导产业选择研究成为世界诸多国家和地区产业结构政策制定的重要依据和内容。基于历史和过程视角考察，先发资本主义国家英国、法国、德国、美国以及第二次世界大战后的日本和韩国等，甚至包括社会主义国家苏联，这些国家的经济能够在特定历史阶段迅速崛起，一定程度与其承认客观背景差异，并选取契合彼时国际产业结构变迁的主导产业有直接关系。主导产业对于现代经济增长的积极作用，已被主流学术界以及各国政府承认和接受，尤其对于后发国家与地区而言，这一关系的客观性与可复制性成为为其发展区域经济、缩小差距提供具有可操作性借鉴的客观基础。这也是国际和国内大量学者致力于此领域进行研究和探索的重要原因之一。深圳与有关国家相比，其产业发展既有共性也存在差异。所谓共性，即经济快速发展、产业结构优化、行业持续领先、就业状态良好、自然生态和谐等区域经济发展的共同表征；而差异性则体现在诸多不同方面，本书初步将其归纳为经济发展阶段的特殊性、功能定位的特殊性、城市结构的特殊性以及区域位置的特殊性四个方面。深圳经济阶段特殊性包括绝对经济梯度和客观经济优势两方面。深圳目前的人均个人可支配收入和人均GDP相比发达国家和地区而言，显然存在较大差距；基于“国际标准结构”的发展维度定位，目前深圳仍处于工业化高级阶段。但即便如此，深圳在区域范围的客观经济优势仍显而易见：深圳目前的人均可支配收入甚至高于全国的人均GDP，深圳的生产能力和消费能力超出我国整体平均水平较多等。因此，作为一个省域范围内的非省会城市，深圳不可能也无必要趋向功能完整、层次复杂的大产业体系，而对特定的产业群发展模式具有显性偏好，如经济绩效、技术绩效以及就业效率等方面。正是这一功能定位的特殊性，使深圳的城市结构具有相应的特殊性：深圳目前产业结构中不存在第一产业，第二产业和第三产业结构趋向固化，就业结构亦相对稳定，流动人口数倍于就业人口等。这一因素对于深圳主导产业选择具有重要影响。正如欧美先发国家与东亚后发国家工业体系建构思路不同，深圳主导产业选择也应基于其空间和自然资源禀赋进行规划，而现阶段对深圳乃至整个珠三角区域而言，从国家大战略到深圳近郊城市，倾向发展协同规划式“湾区经济”，这无疑是深圳主导产业发展过程再次选择和主动调整的战略契机。基于深圳这一具有显著特殊性的城市作为研究载体，以其主导产业选择为研究内容，在对相关文献的研究对象、研究方法和研究特色梳理之后，本书对深圳产业发展的效率、行业和结构，采用从微观、中观再至宏观的递进式分析评价方式，以此作为进一步对深圳主导产业选择理论分析和量化分析构建相应的事实基础。在对现阶段深圳主导产业选择的理论分析部分，基于深圳产业发展历史沿革和现状基础，本书将深圳目前阶段的特点概括为四个方面，并结合现有研究理论与分析框架与此进行匹配。显然，由于产业理论研究的时效性、阶段性、区域性以及相关选择基准复杂性等因素，必须对其分析框架和选择基准进行相应修正，才能适应现阶段深圳主导产业选择问题的探索。因此，本书理论分析从方法基础、理论基础、理论框架和基准体系等方面，为现有理论更好地应用于现阶段深圳主导产业选择进行修正与完善。基于修正的深圳主导产业选择理论分析，沿用目前现有产业研究文献的主流做法，本书将研究对象解构为有机联系的定性分析和定量分析两个模块。根据研究对象性质和数据容量、质量及指标特征等因素，采用效率分离、就业集聚、市场绩效指标体系及能耗测度等方法对深圳产业12个较成熟的量化指标进行测算，得到相应侧重方向的分析结论。以此为基础，进一步采用因子分析法对相关因子提取，并初步获得基于量化分析体系的深圳现阶段主导产业选择群。量化分析在分析区域产业选择问题显然存在一定局限性，诸如深圳区域经济发展的战略契机，“城市—城市群”的空间规划等难以量化的因素，无法在基准体系反映，更无法基于此获得主导产业的指向性选择。因此必须将量化分析的结论进行合理性分析，再结合相关理论、事实和发展规划进行考量。通过对深圳战略发展契机、湾区经济规划以及深圳产业结构发展倾向等方面考量，尤其对目前东西半球都已取得产业选择成功的湾区经济代表，如纽约湾区和东京湾区等地区的产业选择与发展路径借鉴，深圳在目前阶段的主导产业选择思路更加清晰。根据量化分析数据和定性分析结论，深圳目前的以计算机、通信及其他电子设备，互联网和相关服务，软件和信息技术服务为核心构建的产业群具有显性的市场绩效和效率绩效，无疑是主导产业的较好选择；而纺织服装产业群，从行业类别、生产形式以及生产效率等方面，也同样具有一定发展潜力与效率。这两个产业群分别代表显性和隐性制造业主导产业升级趋势。深圳医药制造业等具有高科技研发基因和传统制造优势的产业逐渐呈现出其市场绩效。此外，深圳汽车制造业的相关优势也开始由隐性转为显性，但其发展趋势仍存在较大的市场风险和不确定性，目前市场绩效最显著的无疑是深圳的金融业和批发零售业。深圳的金融业发展历史、现状以及发展规划等，足以支撑深圳金融业未来的发展走向；但深圳的批发零售业，其主导产业发展路径仍存在较大不确定性，这与其产业性质密不可分。批发零售业的发展较大程度上依赖深圳制造业及深圳在“城市—城市群”发展过程中的空间重新规划效率。与此同时，根据分析框架的设计和测算，也筛选出文教、工美、体育和娱乐用品制造业等轻工业产业。因为传统主导产业选择普遍偏重制造业以及服务业链条的中高端部分，这一结论与预想显然具有一定差距。城市产业发展是一个动态互动过程，主观选择与客观发展必须达到相应的平衡，如果大部分区域经济发展过程中都偏向重型制造业或化工业或高端服务业，从产业发展生态以及经济结构的平衡等视角分析亦不尽合理。因此，深圳在产业选择和发展过程中，显然不应该忽略一些轻工业产业。本书不可避免地存在一些局限，主要体现在对不同产业结构的行业选择偏向、量化指标体系的设计以及量化数据的质量与容量等方面，虽对结论的选择影响有限，但一定程度影响了研究的完整性和严谨性。客观上为后续研究的开展积累了一定的理论基础和实证经验。总之，深圳经济、深圳产业尤其是主导产业研究领域，仍存在大量的问题值得去思考，也有诸多的缺憾值得去完善。 关键词：深圳　主导产业　选择　发展路径

Since industrialization process commenced，the process of economic development in a sense，is the process of deepening labour division by micro-viewd，differentiating industries by meso-viewd and expanding regional economic disparities by macro-viewd，and the rise and fall of the leading industries makes a partial proof of this process.Formation and development of leading industries always has its historical background，regional characteristics and strategic opportunity，taking proper leading industry at the right time and fitting the market opportunities can easily obtain industrial development opportunities and regional economic competitive advantage.Thus，how to find and make leading industries becoming an important part of the industrial structure policy of countries and regions around the world.Based on the perspectives of history and processes，the reason of their rapid rise of first-mover capitalist countries，such as Britain，France，Germany，the United States and Japan and Korea after World WarⅡ，even the socialist country the Soviet Union，is a direct relationship between the objective differences based on their chosen for leading industries.The positive role of leading industries of modern economic growth has been recognized and accepted by academia and governments.The experience can be copied for the development of regional economy，which is why international and domestic scholars committed to vigorously carry out this field of research and exploration.Shenzhen faces both similarities and differences when comparing to regional swhich are committing leading industries.The so-called commons，including rapid economic development，industrial structure optimization，leading industry performance，full employment and the harmony of regional economic development and the natural ecological；while the difference is reflected in many as pects，this book will summarize in roughly as four economic development particularity，such as particularity of functional orientation，economic stage，industrial structure and regional location of the city.Obviously，Shenzhen also has many other characteristics of himself.Based on research objectives，characteristics and other factors，this paper intends to no expand temporarily.To Shenzhen’s particularity of economic stage，including the economic development gap between the absolute and comparable economic advantage in two ways.First，gap is clear when comparing to the current developed capitalist countries and regions in disposable income per capita and GDP per capita；based dimension of“international standard structure”，Shenzhen is in an advanced stage of industrialization.The comparabe advantages of economy are also obviously，the disposable income per capita of Shenzhen now is even higher than the country’s GDP per capita，and production and consumption capacity of the economy are both more than national average level.As a non-capital city，Shenzhen’s industrial system function tend not to be a complete industrial system but industrial clusters with a specific pattern，such as economic performance，technology and other aspects of performance and efficiency of employment.It is the exact feature that the urban structure of Shenzhen in a corresponding particularity，such as the industrial structure contain not a primary industry，while the secondary industry and tertiary industry structure in a long-term stability and so on.This has an important influence to the choice of leading industry.Different with those first-mover countries in Europe and US，Shenzhen’s leading industries should also based on their spatial planning and natural resource endowments.At this stage of Shenzhen and the Pearl River Delta region，the National Strategy to the outskirts of cities such as Shenzhen，Huizhou，etc.，consistent with the current development plan，“the Bay Area economy”is the dominant strategy and opportunity for industrial restructure.Based in Shenzhen’s significant particularity，the book sorts out the relevant literature of leading industry choice in the study of research methods and features，evaluates Shenzhen’s industrial development by efficiency from the micro，mesp to the macro.And finaly makes further analysis of Shenzhen leading industry choice theory and quantitative analysis.In section of theoretical analysis of Shenzhen’s leading industry choice for now，this book summaries Shenzhen’s special nature of the current phase in four aspects，based on the history and current status of Shenzhen industrial development，and combines the theory and practice analysis of existing research framework.Obviously，due to the timeliness of theoretical research industry，stategy，regionality as well as the complexity of the relevant selection criterion factors，framework and benchmarks must be amended in order to adapt to the Shenzhen leading industry research stage.Therefore，the theoretical analysis in the 4th chapter，the book continues rectifying and amending basis in terms of methods，rationale，theoretical framework and reference system，and so the theory is applied to the existing dominant industry in Shenzhen selected targets related correction and improvement.Based on correction frame work of choice theory of Shenzhen’s leading industry.The book follows the practice of mainstream research work to deconstruct the whole into qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.According to the quality，quantity and characteristics of data，the book analyses the Shenzhen industry by separation efficiency，employment concentration，market performance indicator system and the energy consumption indexes，etc..On this basis，further using factor analysis to extract the relevant factors，and obtain preliminary quantitative analysis system based in Shenzhen stage select group of leading industries.Obviously，quantitative analysis has limitations his own，such as strategic opportunities of regional economic development，and“city-urban agglomerations”regional planning and other factors.Therefore，the conclusion must depend on the combination of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis，and then after a reasonable analysis of relevant theories，facts and development planning considerations.Taking these factors which the development opportunities，Bay Area Economic planning and development tendencies of industrial structure and other aspects into account，especially the Bay Area economy of eastern and western hemispheres separately，Shenzhen has clear thinking to select the path of industrial development and the leading industry choice for now.According to relevant conclusions of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis，those which，computer，communications and other electronic equipment industry，the Internet and related services，software and IT services as the core industry group；while textile and garment industries，from industry sectors，in respect of technique and productivity，etc.，also has development potential and efficiency.The two industry groups representing dominant and recessive trends of leading industries.By the way，Shenzhen’s high-tech research and development work of pharmaceutical manufacturing and other genetic industries would gradually showing their competitive advantage.Traditional leading industry selection prefers to heavy-part of manufacturing and high-part of services and business.In fact，the industrial development of the city is a dynamic interactive process，the subjective and objective selection and development must reach the appropriate balance.If the industry development biased in heavy manufacturing or chemical or high-services，there is also unreasonable from the industrial development of structure and balance.Therefore，in the process of industrial development in Shenzhen should not ignore light industry.Alike most industry studies，the book is of limitations，such as the industries selection bias，quantitative indicators designing，quality and capacity of quantitative data，etc.，which affects the conclusions of this study in degrees.Thus，there are still plenty of questions worth thinking about industry of Shenzhen，especially the leading industry research. Key Words： Shenzhen；Leading Industries；Criterions of Choice；Development Path