2007年美国次贷危机的爆发及其引发的国际金融危机，催生了大量关于金融因素对经济波动影响的研究。近年来，对金融因素的关注已成为经济波动研究乃至宏观经济学研究的热点，并已形成一个重要的新兴研究领域——金融经济周期（Financial Business Cycle,FBC）。金融经济周期研究将金融摩擦引入DSGE模型框架，揭示金融摩擦下经济波动的传导机制。本书将金融经济周期前沿理论对房地产市场与金融中介的关注应用于中国经济波动问题的研究，结合中国经济现实与制度特征，探讨了不同经济部门在金融摩擦作用下对中国经济波动的影响。

从金融经济周期的视角出发，本书首先关注中国的房地产市场。中国房地产市场的一个显著的特殊性在于地方政府的土地财政行为，本书将地方政府的土地财政行为纳入到一个DSGE模型框架中，并同时对地方政府和企业面临的金融摩擦进行了刻画，以此分析地方政府土地财政在经济波动的传导中所扮演的角色。除了在供给方面具有制度上的独特性，中国的房地产市场还表现出区域发展不平衡的特点，不同地区的房价水平具有显著的差异。本书进一步构建一个多区域的DSGE模型，以刻画不同区域内以及区域间的金融摩擦，从而将房地产价格与经济波动的研究推广到了区域层面。

在上述研究中，家庭部门事实上充当了金融中介的作用，但由于理论模型中并没有显性地引入金融中介部门，致使难以对其面临的金融摩擦进行研究。为此，本书进而通过构建一个包含商业银行的DSGE模型，同时对中国商业银行资产和负债两端的金融摩擦进行刻画，研究其对经济波动的影响。进一步地，本书将上面包含金融中介的模型框架推广到对中国影子银行的研究。近年来影子银行的迅速扩张，使中国社会融资结构发生了颠覆性的变化。与西方典型的影子银行体系不同，中国式的影子银行体系以商业银行为主导，这使其可能具备独特的经济波动特征。

本书在金融经济周期的视角下研究了不同经济主体和不同金融摩擦对中国经济波动的影响。研究结果充分表明，金融摩擦在中国经济波动的传导过程中扮演着重要的角色。随着中国金融市场的快速发展以及市场化改革的不断加深，金融摩擦的上述效应愈显重要。与此同时，中国的金融市场还具有诸多自身的特点，面临的金融摩擦反映着其制度上的独特性。本书在金融经济周期研究与中国经济特征的结合上进行了初步的探索，可以为理解和分析现实的中国经济波动问题提供一个新的视角，同时为政府平抑宏观经济波动、增强宏观调控效果提供一些政策启示。

The outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007 and the international financial crisis triggered a large number of studies on the impact of financial factors on economic fluctuations. In recent years, the focus on financial factors has become a hot spot in economic fluctuation research and even macroeconomics research, and has formed an important emerging research field - Financial Business Cycle (FBC). The study of financial economic cycle introduces financial friction into the DSGE model framework to reveal the transmission mechanism of economic fluctuation under financial friction. This book applies the attention of the frontier theory of financial economic cycle to the real estate market and financial intermediation to the study of China's economic fluctuations, and discusses the impact of different economic sectors on China's economic fluctuations under the influence of financial frictions based on China's economic fluctuations based on the characteristics of China's economic reality and institutions. From the perspective of the financial economic cycle, this book first focuses on China's real estate market. This book incorporates the land finance behavior of local governments into a DSGE model framework, and at the same time describes the financial frictions faced by local governments and enterprises, so as to analyze the role of local government land finance in the transmission of economic fluctuations. In addition to its institutional uniqueness on the supply side, China's real estate market also shows the characteristics of unbalanced regional development, and the housing price level of different regions has significant differences. This book further constructs a multi-regional DSGE model to depict financial frictions within and between regions, thereby extending the study of real estate prices and economic fluctuations to the regional level. In the above study, the household sector actually plays the role of financial intermediary, but because the financial intermediation sector is not explicitly introduced in the theoretical model, it is difficult to study the financial friction it faces. To this end, this book further studies the impact of DSGE on economic fluctuations by constructing a DSGE model that includes commercial banks, and at the same time depicting the financial frictions at both ends of the assets and liabilities of Chinese commercial banks. Further, this book extends the above model framework containing financial intermediation to the study of shadow banking in China. The rapid expansion of shadow banking in recent years has brought about subversive changes in China's social financing structure. Unlike the typical shadow banking system in the West, the Chinese-style shadow banking system is dominated by commercial banks, which makes it possible to have unique characteristics of economic fluctuations. This book examines the impact of different economic entities and different financial frictions on China's economic fluctuations from the perspective of the financial economic cycle. The results of the study fully show that financial friction plays an important role in the transmission of China's economic fluctuations. With the rapid development of China's financial market and the deepening of market-oriented reforms, the above effects of financial friction have become more and more important. At the same time, China's financial market also has many characteristics of its own, and the financial frictions it faces reflect its institutional uniqueness. This book makes a preliminary exploration on the combination of financial economic cycle research and China's economic characteristics, which can provide a new perspective for understanding and analyzing the actual problem of China's economic fluctuations, and at the same time provide some policy enlightenment for the government to stabilize macroeconomic fluctuations and enhance the effect of macro-control.（AI翻译）

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