信息技术的发展改变了经典的大众传播方式，信息和观点的传播从现实生活的面对面迁移到虚拟空间中，个体通过社交媒体以点对点的方式传递消息、观点及行为。由此推动了传播学、管理学与在线应用的深度融合。由于社交媒体实现方式的多样性、参与者的广泛性、传播渠道的复杂性，所以在社交媒体上舆情传播和演化过程中易呈现出突发性、裂变性及复杂性等特点。这要求政府相关部门和学者专家们面对社交媒体上海量的数据信息，科学的把握网络事件的传播规律、准确高效的分析传播态势及提高应急决策和预警能力。因此社交媒体上的舆情相关理论问题就成为一个重要的研究议题。本书的主要结论如下：

多数网络舆情研究的研究假设都认为，在线社区上的社会网络关系只要建立就一直生效，也就是只要舆情相关信息或观点到达，就会沿着虚拟世界中的社会关系传递。但是现实中由于用户本身的工作、学习、出行等社会活动的影响，在线的社会网络关系是处于时断时续的状态，这种动态的关系构成必定对舆情演化产生很大的作用。故本书针对这种社交媒体应用情景，从个体在线行为的时间特征出发，提出在线时变社会网络概念，考虑个体属性或群体社会规范，对不同类型的在线时变社会网络上的舆情传播开展了建模、实证和仿真实验研究。微博个体的在线时间分配模式和注意力范围可以用时间表示，其分布规律是带指数截断的幂律分布。在这种有限注意机制驱动下，微博、微信等社交媒体不仅是大众获取各类信息的平台，还是按照人的关系链、社会交互行为构成的一种新型传播渠道，可以用在线时变社会网络来表示。在这种动态网络之上，舆情和舆论的演化表现出了更丰富的动态特性。

关键词：时变网络；舆情演化；活动窗；意见动力学

Abstract

The development of information technology has changed the way of mass communication.The communication of information andopinions has moved from face-to-face in real life to virtual space.Individuals transmit information,opinions and behaviors in a point-to-point way through social media.This promotes the deep integration of communication,management and online application.Due to the diversity of social media implementation methods,the universality of participants,and the complexity of communication channels,public opinion communication and evolution on social media are prone to show the characteristics of burstness,split and complexity.This requires the governments,scholars and experts to face the amount of data and information of social media and scientifically grasp the dissemination law of network events.Then they can analyze the dissemination situation and improve the ability in emergency decision-making.Therefore,the theory of public opinion on social media has become an important research topic.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows：

However,most of the research hypotheses of online public opinion research believe that the social network relationship on the online community has been effective as long as it is established.That is to say,as long as the relevant information or opinions of public opinion arrive,it will be transmitted along the social relationship in the virtual world.But in reality,due to the influence of users' work,learning,travel and other social activities,the online social network relationship is in a state of intermittent，and this dynamic relationship composition must have a great effect on the evolution of public opinion.Therefore,in view of this social media application scenario,starting from the time characteristics of individual online behavior,this paper proposes the concept of online temporal social network,considering individual attributes or group social norms,and conducts modeling,demonstration and simulation experiments on public opinion communication on different types of onlinetemporal social network.The online time distribution pattern and attention range of microblog individuals can be expressed by time,and its distribution law is power-law distribution with exponential truncation.Driven by this limited attention mechanism,social media such as microblog and wechat are not only platforms for the public to obtain all kinds of information,but also a new communication channel based on human relationship chain and social interaction behavior,which can be represented by online time-varying social network.On this dynamic network,the evolution of public opinion and public opinion shows more dynamic characteristics.

Key Words: Temporal Network; Evolution of Public Opinion; Activity Window; Opinion Dynamic