本书是“新中国工业化回望录”的第二卷，以回望中华人民共和国从社会主义改造基本完成到“文化大革命”前夕的十年，特别是1958—1965年八年的工业化历程为主要内容。

实现国家的工业化，是近代以来中华民族几代人历经磨难而终无所获的美好愿望，在毛泽东的领导下，新中国用不到30年的时间，就把一个贫弱的农业国建设成为一个具有独立的、比较完整的工业体系和国民经济体系的社会主义的工农业国，把“两弹一星”送上天，以它辉煌的光焰屹立于世界。

新中国的工业化有着时代的特点以及特定的制度内涵。它同现今西方发达国家与资本主义化相结合的情况不同，是与社会主义相结合的模式。依靠社会主义制度的优越性，极大地激发了人民群众的首创精神和工作积极性。这是它能够战胜各种困难，赢得高速度发展的根本原因。

新中国前30年的发展充满坎坷。有来自外部设置的障碍，也有自己的失误。有成功，也有挫折，甚至是严重的挫折。但是，无论什么情况，都没有能够阻挡它前进。回望过去，放眼未来，不禁使我们备感自信。

从社会主义改造基本完成到“文化大革命”前夕的十年，1956年至1965年，是中国共产党领导全国各族人民开始转入全面地、大规模地社会主义建设的重要时期。也是毛泽东“以苏为鉴”，探索加快发展的中国工业化道路的重要时期。6950241 这一时期尽管遭遇过严重的曲折，正如《中国共产党中央委员会关于建国以来党的若干历史问题的决议》所指出，仍然取得了很大的成就，积累了领导社会主义建设的重要经验。不论是正面的经验，还是反面的教训，都是我们宝贵的财富。

一

本书以《中国的经济起飞实验》命名。“经济起飞”概念，是美国一位经济学家提出来的。由英国18世纪下半叶开始的同资本主义相结合的工业革命，揭开了人类工业化历史的新篇章。这是由手工生产向机器生产、农耕文明向工业文明、传统社会向现代社会转变的社会经济大变革。伴随它们的，则是社会生产力的飞跃现象。马克思和恩格斯在《共产党宣言》里，对资本主义在不到一百年时间所创造的惊人的生产力的褒扬，指的就是这一事实。后来，美国经济学家W.W.罗斯托在研究这一现象时，把它定义为“经济起飞”。中国在完成民主革命和生产资料所有制的社会主义改造以后，致力于加快发展，加速推进社会主义工业化进程。撇开社会制度因素，同当年英国等国家工业革命所面临的情况和所要解决问题，在许多方面是很相像的。笔者点明中国这次经济起飞的“实验”性质，是基于毛泽东当年曾经说，对于社会主义建设总路线和“大跃进”他还要“观察”，要经受实践的检验。就是说，可能成功，也可能失败，或者兼而有之。后来的发展，果然是这样。1981年6月27日中国共产党第十一届中央委员会第六次全体会议一致通过的《中国共产党中央委员会关于建国以来党的若干历史问题的决议》，关于这一时期的分析和评价，一分为二，既肯定主导的方面，又指出其严重的失误。

上述《决议》说：“社会主义改造基本完成以后，我们党领导全国各族人民开始转入全面的、大规模的社会主义建设。直到‘文化大革命’前夕的十年中，我们虽然遭到过严重挫折，仍然取得了很大的成就。以一九六六年同一九五六年相比，全国工业固定资产按原价计算，增长了三倍。棉纱、原煤发电量、原油、钢和机械设备等主要工业产品的产量，都有巨大的增长。从一九六五年起实现了石油全部自给。电子工业、石油化工等一批新兴的工业部门建设了起来。工业布局有所改善。农业的基本建设和技术改造开始大规模展开，并逐渐收到成效。全国农业用拖拉机和化肥使用量都增长六倍以上，农村用电量增长七十倍。高等学校的毕业生为前七年的四点九倍。经过整顿，教育质量得到显著提高。科学技术工作也有比较突出的成果。”《决议》在列举这一系列重大成就后肯定说：“总之，我们现在赖以进行现代化建设的物质技术基础，很大一部分是这个期间建设起来的；全国经济文化建设等方面的骨干力量和他们的工作经验，大部分也是在这个期间培养和积累起来的。这是这个期间党的工作的主导方面。”

接着，《决议》对于这一时期的失误作了如下分析：“这十年中，党的工作在指导方针上有过严重失误，经历了曲折的发展过程。”在经济工作方面，《决议》特别指出：“一九五八年，党的八大二次会议通过的社会主义建设总路线及其基本点，其正确的一面是反映了广大的人民群众迫切要求改变我国经济文化落后状况的普遍愿望，其缺点是忽视了客观的经济规律。在这次会议前后，全党同志和全国各族人民在生产建设中发挥了高度的社会主义积极性和创造精神，并取得了一定的成果。但是，由于对社会主义建设经验不足，对经济发展规律和中国经济基本情况认识不足，更由于毛泽东同志、中央和地方不少领导同志在胜利面前滋长了骄傲自满情绪，急于求成，夸大了主观意志和主观努力的作用，没有经过认真的调查研究和试点，就在总路线提出后轻率地发动了‘大跃进’运动和农村人民公社化运动，使得以高指标、瞎指挥、浮夸风和‘共产风’为主要标志的左倾错误严重地泛滥开来。从一九五八年底到一九五九年七月中央政治局庐山会议前期，毛泽东同志和党中央曾经努力领导全党纠正已经觉察到的错误。但是，庐山会议后期，毛泽东同志错误地发动了对彭德怀同志的批判，进而在全党错误地开展了‘反右倾’斗争。八届八中全会关于所谓‘彭德怀、黄克诚、张闻天、周小舟反党集团’的决议是完全错误的。这场斗争在政治上使党内从中央到基层的民主生活遭到严重损害，在经济上打断了纠正左倾错误的进程，使错误延续了更长时间。主要由于‘大跃进’和‘反右倾’的错误，加上当时的自然灾害和苏联政府背信弃义地撕毁合同，我国国民经济在一九五九年到一九六一年发生严重困难，国家和人民遭到重大损失。”6950242

在人类历史上，每一次社会经济大变革，都必然引起社会生产力的大发展，即所谓飞跃现象，只不过比起社会主义制度下的情况，资本主义就要逊色一些了。美国在工业化时期（1820—1900年），工业发展速度比其他资本主义国家要快，但每年平均增长速度也只为5.8%—7.2%。6950243 我国在1956—1965年虽然经历严重挫折，工业总产值按可比价格计算，平均每年仍然增长11.0%。6950244 全民所有制工业固定资产原值1957年比1952年增长1.54倍，1965年比1957年增长2.53倍。6950245 这说明，中国经过两次革命，获得了解放的社会生产力开始释放出更巨大的能量。正是在这个意义上，笔者尝试从经济起飞的视角观察这一时期的中国经济发展和工业化进程，探寻其固有的规律，从中研究它的正反两方面的经验，汲取教益。这是一个新问题。能否站得住，深望学界同仁指教。

二

紧步1958年“大跃进”和农村人民公社化运动，1959—1961年中国陷入三年严重经济困难，工农业生产大幅度下降。这是当代中国经济史研究中的一个重大问题。本书尝试运用马克思主义经典作家关于经济危机的一般理论，揭示这一不同寻常的经济现象，认为在经济危机一般的意义上，它实际上也是一场经济危机，但与资本主义那种周期性生产过剩危机不同。其原因，主要是自然灾害和工作失误导致农业严重歉收引发的粮食危机，进而向工业部门传导，酿成整个国民经济的危机，苏联政府背信弃义地撕毁合同，加重了它的严重程度。笔者把它定义为同社会主义基本制度无关的特殊形态的经济危机。这一研究的意义在于说明，建立在生产资料公有制基础上的社会主义经济制度，不是仅仅具有优越性的一面，例如，惊人的资源动员能力和按照需要有计划配置资源的可能性；而且在一定的条件下，例如，超出人类抵御能力的自然灾害的袭击，以及经济工作如果在较长时间内或者在较为严重的程度上违背客观经济规律和自然规律，同样会发生经济危机，更不要说天灾与“人祸”的同时夹击。它启示我们，必须保持清醒的头脑，并有必要的准备和储备。这也是不久以后，毛泽东提出备战备荒为人民战略方针的重要背景之一。

迄今，对于那场严重经济困难即本书所称经济危机原因的探讨，有多种方法。笔者从比较的角度，应用“假设”的方法求证，认为天灾同“人祸”6950246 相比，是更为重要的因素。在某些局部地区、局部环节上，“人祸”可能是主要的因素，但从危机的整体看，如通常所说，天灾是“压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草”，即最终形成危机的决定性原因。6950247 在历史问题的研究中，人们并不一般地拒绝应用“假设”的方法求证某一论断或结论。《中国共产党中央委员会关于建国以来党的若干历史问题的决议》作出“如果没有‘文化大革命’，我们的事业会取得大得多的成就”6950248的论断，就是使用的这种方法。

三

在中国这样一个人多地少，又是处在工业化初期阶段的国家，1959年到1961年连续三年遭遇百年不遇的自然灾害，对国计民生的影响是巨大的，有必要进行专题性研究。本书第十九章设专章讨论“‘大跃进’年代的自然灾害与救灾”，并运用“新旧对比”方法，论列中国共产党和人民政府领导的这场抗灾和救灾斗争，是历代王朝、民国政府不可比拟的。离现在最近的旧中国1942—1943年蒋介石政府执政时期，曾有过一次中原大饥荒。当时灾害的严重程度和范围都不及1959—1961年，造成的危害和后果却骇人听闻。仅河南一省3400万人口中就因饥饿死亡300万—500万人（据一位国民党省参议和美国记者白修德所说，因饥饿死亡人口达500万人）。笔者曾亲历那次荒年，时年七八岁。目睹贫者卖儿鬻女的人间悲剧（邻居一家无子，就买了一个骨瘦如柴的小男孩），富者趁贱价收买土地。那时，离我家不远的一家店铺依然有米、面出售，沿街照常有叫卖熟食的挑担小贩，却增加了不少乞讨者，啼饥号寒惨死街头已不稀罕。新中国1959年以后的几年，事前依靠国家和人民公社集体力量抗灾，减轻损失；事后又组织救灾，尽力降低灾害的危害程度。局部地区发生的人口非正常死亡情况，主要是“营养性死亡”。这是江苏师范大学孙经先教授研究这一问题提出的概念，是否妥当，还可以斟酌和讨论。其含义主要是指营养性疾病（浮肿病等）死亡、营养性疾病合并其他疾病死亡，也包括“完全性饥饿死亡”（即“饿死”）。但包括在“营养性死亡”数字中，真正属于“饿死”（完全性饥饿死亡）的只是其中的一小部分。6950249这可能比“非正常死亡”的概念要精当些，因为其他意外死亡也属于“非正常死亡”。更重要的是，它有助于区别旧中国荒年的情况。在旧社会制度下，一遇荒年，虽然也有官方的救灾和民间义赈一类的做法，作用有限，不能避免农民因灾破产、因灾家破人亡的悲惨命运；荒年反而成为权势者与财主们巧取豪夺、兼并土地的好机会。区分上述两种情况的不同性质，是很必要的。1959—1961年三年经济困难时期，从国家领导人到全国人民，除区别城乡和不同工种，一律按低标准配给基本口粮，保证大家渡过灾荒。假如不是这样，而是像旧社会那样，一些人吃得饱甚至照旧美味佳肴，另一些人的景况就难以想象了。

四

关于本书的结构：

前言，是有关本书的几点说明。

绪论，论列人类社会固有的经济飞跃现象和经济起飞概念的由来以及毛泽东的发展观。

正文部分，分五篇：

第一篇，起飞前奏。用五章说明起飞的历史前提、思想理论等方面的准备及“大跃进”局面的形成。1956年的加快发展，后被周恩来概括为“跃进的发展”，其实是1958年“大跃进”的预演。它积累了正反两方面的经验，是决策层达成共识的必要环节。没有这一阶段的实践，很难理解此后三年全党上下全神贯注地领导一场“大跃进”运动。

第二篇，“大跃进”的三年。从第六章到第九章分四章叙述，包括第八章专门论列实为主动进行经济调整工作的“八个月纠‘左’”。可惜功亏一篑，导致更为严重的后果。

第三篇，意外的经济危机。本书把三年严重经济困难看作一场经济危机。说它是“意外的”，不仅是指它具有偶然性的特点，还在于传统社会主义观念里根本不承认它有存在的理由。第十章，在简要说明马克思主义经典作家关于经济危机的一般原理后，第十一章和第十二章用两章分析危机的起因及主要表现。

第四篇，同严重困难的斗争。叙述党和政府领导全国人民战胜经济危机的斗争。这场危机的要害，也是影响和决定危机主要过程的决定性因素，是全国性的粮食短缺，六亿人口的口粮严重不足。当时的中国，面临以美帝国主义为首的帝国主义阵营的全面封锁，苏联赫鲁晓夫统治集团乘机发难，落井下石，更加重了困难的程度。即使没有这些因素，中国有限的外汇，世界粮食市场的可能情况，对于几亿人口的中国来说，出路只能是主要靠自己解救自己。在第十三章，专门论列毛泽东继续亲自动手抓农业，由此突破，带动和推进经济调整全局活起来。第十四章叙述整个国民经济的调整。第十五章叙述“七千人大会”和中共八届十中全会的主要情况及其在经济调整中的地位和作用。第十六章到第十八章叙述国民经济的复苏以及此后的三年过渡阶段。第十九章专章讨论这一时期的自然灾害与救灾问题。

第五篇，起飞实验的综合观察。本篇首先对1958年“大跃进”和1958—1960年三年“大跃进”分别设专章审视，进而把1958—1965年作为一个整体加以观察。前三年的“大跃进”和后五年的调整相辅相成，可视为国民经济波浪式运行的一个周期。在这一周期结束时的1965年，在第一个五年计划的基础上，过渡时期总路线规定的用大约十五年的时间即三个五年计划初步实现社会工业化的目标，按当时的理解和要求衡量，在很大程度上已经提前实现。它的主要标志是：初步建立起一个具有相当技术水平和规模的工业体系和机械制造工业体系，并开始有了自己的高新技术产业，一举突破国防尖端，爆炸了独立研制的原子弹。这是发达资本主义国家曾用四五十年甚至是上百年才走完的路。在同一时期里，一些较大的发展中国家在工业化的道路上也都没有取得这样大的发展成就。经济调整之所以用了五年长时间，除却天灾肆虐的因素，有相当一部分时间和一部分追加的资金投入，是用来解决三年大发展中的填平补齐问题，因而理应当作不能省却的一笔补偿性投入对待。没有几年的大灾，调整不至于延续五年的时间。

此外，笔者在本篇还提出一个关于“二五”计划期的统计数据处理问题。在国民经济实际运行中，原定“二五”计划期已经成为两个不同的阶段。国务院总理周恩来在1964年的政府工作报告里，已经做了这样的区分。现行统计方法仍作为完整计划期，难以反映历史原貌，且易产生误导作用，有必要引起有关方面的重视。

五

有必要说明，拙作承蒙国家新闻出版广电总局出版管理司和中共中央党史研究室专家审看，提出不少宝贵意见，在此深表感谢！

本书的构思是一次尝试。所持看法能否站得住，也有待于检验。期望批评指正。

本书讨论内容，不包括中国香港、中国澳门和中国台湾地区。

作者

2015年4月15日

2017年4月5日修改

This book is the second volume of "A Review of the Industrialization of New China", which mainly looks back at the ten years from the basic completion of the socialist transformation of the People's Republic of China to the eve of the "Cultural Revolution", especially the eight years from 1958 to 1965. Under the leadership of Mao Zedong, in less than 30 years, New China built a poor and weak agricultural country into a socialist industrial and agricultural country with an independent and relatively complete industrial system and national economic system, sent the "two bombs and one satellite" to the sky, and stood tall in the world with its brilliant flame. The industrialization of New China has the characteristics of the times and specific institutional connotations. It is different from the current situation in the developed countries of the West in combination with capitalism, and it is a model of integration with socialism. Relying on the superiority of the socialist system has greatly stimulated the people's initiative and enthusiasm for work. This is the fundamental reason why it can overcome all kinds of difficulties and win high-speed development. The first 30 years of New China's development were full of ups and downs. There are obstacles from the outside, and there are their own mistakes. There are successes, there are setbacks, even serious setbacks. But in any case, nothing can stop it from moving forward. Looking back at the past and looking to the future makes us feel confident. The decade from the basic completion of socialist transformation to the eve of the "Cultural Revolution," 1956 to 1965, was an important period when the CPC led the people of all ethnic groups throughout the country to begin to enter comprehensive and large-scale socialist construction. It was also an important period for Mao Zedong to "learn from the Soviet Union" and explore the path of accelerated development of China's industrialization. 6950241 Although this period has encountered serious twists and turns, as pointed out in the Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Historical Issues of the Party Since the Founding of the People's Republic of China, great achievements have been made and important experience has been accumulated in leading socialist construction. Both positive and negative lessons are our precious assets. One book is titled "China's Economic Take-off Experiment." The concept of "economic takeoff" was proposed by an American economist. The industrial revolution combined with capitalism in Britain, which began in the second half of the 18th century, opened a new chapter in the history of human industrialization. This is a major social and economic change from manual production to machine production, agricultural civilization to industrial civilization, and traditional society to modern society. They are accompanied by a leap in the productive forces of society. Marx and Engels, in the Communist Manifesto, praised the astonishing productive forces created by capitalism in less than a hundred years, referring to this fact. Later, the American economist W.W. Rostow defined this phenomenon as "economic takeoff" when studying it. After completing the democratic revolution and the socialist transformation of the ownership of the means of production, China is committed to accelerating development and accelerating the process of socialist industrialization. Regardless of the social system factors, the situation faced and the problems to be solved in the industrial revolution in countries such as Britain are very similar in many respects. The author points out the "experimental" nature of China's economic take-off based on Mao Zedong's statement that he still has to "observe" the general line of socialist construction and the "Great Leap Forward" and to withstand the test of practice. That is, it can succeed, it may fail, or both. Later development, sure enough. The "Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Certain Historical Issues Concerning the Party Since the Founding of the People's Republic of China," adopted unanimously at the Sixth Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on June 27, 1981, divides the analysis and evaluation of this period into two, affirming the dominant aspects and pointing out its serious mistakes. The above-mentioned "Resolution" says: "After the socialist transformation is basically completed, our party has led the people of all ethnic groups throughout the country to begin to move into comprehensive and large-scale socialist construction. In the decade leading up to the Cultural Revolution, we have achieved a great deal despite serious setbacks. Compared with 1966 and 956, the country's industrial fixed assets increased by three times in terms of original prices. The output of major industrial products such as cotton yarn, raw coal power generation, crude oil, steel and machinery and equipment has increased tremendously. Since 1965, it has achieved full self-sufficiency in oil. A number of emerging industrial sectors such as the electronics industry and petrochemical industry have been built. The industrial layout has improved. The basic construction and technological transformation of agriculture began to be carried out on a large scale and gradually achieved results. The use of tractors and fertilizers for agriculture has increased more than sixfold nationwide, and rural electricity consumption has increased seventy times. Graduates of institutions of higher learning are 4.9 times more numerous than in the previous seven years. As a result of the rectification, the quality of education has been significantly improved. Scientific and technological work has also achieved relatively outstanding results. After listing this series of major achievements, the Resolution affirmed: "In short, a large part of the material and technological foundation on which we now rely for modernization was built during this period; Most of the backbone forces in the country's economic and cultural construction and their work experience were also cultivated and accumulated during this period. This was the dominant aspect of the party's work during this period. The Resolution then analyzes the mistakes of this period as follows: "In the past ten years, the Party's work has made serious mistakes in guiding principles and has undergone a tortuous process of development. With regard to economic work, the Resolution specifically pointed out: "The correct aspect of the general line for socialist construction and its basic points adopted by the Second Session of the Eighth CPC National Congress in 1958 is that it reflects the general desire of the broad masses of the people to urgently change China's economically and culturally backward situation. Before and after this meeting, comrades of the whole party and the people of all nationalities throughout the country brought into play a high degree of socialist enthusiasm and creative spirit in production and construction, and achieved certain results. However, due to insufficient experience in socialist construction, insufficient understanding of the laws of economic development and the basic situation of the Chinese economy, and even more because Comrade Mao Zedong and many leading comrades at the central and local levels cultivated a sense of pride and complacency in the face of victory, rushed to achieve results, exaggerated the role of subjective will and subjective efforts, and rashly launched the 'Great Leap Forward' movement and the rural people's communalization movement after the general line was proposed, without serious investigation and experimentation, so that the "Great Leap Forward" movement and the rural people's communalization movement were rashly launched after the general line was proposed. The left-leaning error marked by the 'communist wind' was seriously rampant. From the end of 1958 to the pre-Lushan meeting of the Politburo in July 1959, Comrade Mao Zedong and the Party Central Committee worked hard to lead the whole Party in correcting the mistakes it had perceived. However, in the later period of the Lushan Conference, Comrade Mao Zedong mistakenly launched a criticism of Comrade Peng Dehuai, and then mistakenly launched an 'anti-rightist' struggle in the whole party. The resolution of the Eighth Plenary Session of the Eighth CPC Central Committee on the so-called 'anti-party clique of Peng Dehuai, Huang Kecheng, Zhang Wentian, and Zhou Xiaozhou' was completely wrong. This struggle has seriously damaged democratic life in the Party from the central to the grassroots level politically, economically interrupted the process of correcting leftist mistakes, and made them last longer. Mainly due to the mistakes of the 'Great Leap Forward' and the 'anti-rightist tilt,' coupled with the natural disasters at that time and the treacherous tearing up of contracts by the Soviet Government, China's national economy suffered serious difficulties from 1959 to 1961, and the country and people suffered heavy losses. 6950242 in human history, every great social and economic change inevitably leads to the great development of social productive forces, that is, the so-called leap phenomenon, but compared with the situation under the socialist system, capitalism is inferior. During the industrialization period (1820-1900), the United States developed industry faster than other capitalist countries, but the average annual growth rate was only 5.8%-7.2%. 6950243 Despite serious setbacks in 1956-1965, the gross industrial output value grew by an average of 11.0 per cent per year at comparable prices. 6950244 The original value of fixed assets of industries owned by the whole people increased by 1.54 times in 1957 over 1952 and 2.53 times in 1965 over 1957. 6950245 This shows that after two revolutions, China's liberated social productive forces began to release greater energy. It is in this sense that the author tries to observe China's economic development and industrialization process during this period from the perspective of economic take-off, explore its inherent laws, study its positive and negative experiences, and draw lessons from it. This is a new problem. Whether it can stand up, I deeply hope that colleagues in the academic field will advise. Second, following the "Great Leap Forward" and the rural people's communalization movement in 1958, China fell into three years of severe economic difficulties from 1959 to 1961, and industrial and agricultural production fell sharply. This is a major issue in the study of contemporary Chinese economic history. This book attempts to use the general theory of economic crisis by the classic Marxist writers to reveal this unusual economic phenomenon, arguing that it is actually an economic crisis in the general sense of economic crisis, but it is different from the cyclical overproduction crisis of capitalism. The main reason for this was the food crisis caused by the severe agricultural harvest failure caused by natural disasters and work errors, which in turn transmitted to the industrial sector and caused a crisis in the entire national economy, which was aggravated by the treacherous tearing up of contracts by the Soviet government. The author defines it as a special form of economic crisis that has nothing to do with the basic system of socialism. The significance of this study is to show that the socialist economic system based on public ownership of the means of production is not only superior, for example, the amazing ability to mobilize resources and the possibility of allocating resources according to needs; Moreover, under certain conditions, for example, the attack of natural disasters beyond human resistance, and if economic work violates objective economic laws and natural laws for a long time or to a more serious extent, economic crises will also occur, not to mention natural disasters and "man-made disasters" at the same time. It teaches us that we must keep a clear head and have the necessary preparation and reserves. This was also one of the important backgrounds for Mao Zedong's proposal not long ago that preparing for war and preparing for famine was the people's strategic principle. So far, there have been many ways to address the causes of that severe economic crisis, which this book calls the economic crisis. From a comparative point of view, the author applies the "hypothesis" method to verify that natural disasters are more important factors than "man-made disasters 6950246. In some local areas and local links, "man-made disasters" may be the main factor, but from the overall perspective of the crisis, as is usually said, natural disasters are "the last straw that overwhelmed the camel", that is, the decisive cause of the final crisis. 6950247 In the study of historical problems, it is not common to reject the application of "hypothetical" methods to prove a certain statement or conclusion. This method is used in the Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Certain Historical Issues Concerning the Party Since the Founding of the People's Republic of China, which concludes that "without the 'Cultural Revolution,' our cause would have achieved much greater achievements 6950248. Third, in a country like China, which has many people and few people and is in the early stage of industrialization, from 1959 to 1961, it suffered a natural disaster that was not encountered in a century for three consecutive years, and the impact on the national economy and people's livelihood was enormous, and it was necessary to conduct special research. Chapter 19 of this book devotes a special chapter to "Natural Disasters and Disaster Relief in the 'Great Leap Forward' Era", and uses the "contrast between old and new" method to discuss the struggle against and relief led by the Communist Party of China and the People's Government, which is incomparable with successive dynasties and republican governments. In the 1942-1943 administration of Chiang Kai-shek's government, there was a great famine in the Central Plains. At that time, the magnitude and scope of the disaster were not as severe as in 1959-1961, and the harm and consequences were appalling. Of the 34 million people in Henan Province alone, 3 million to 5 million died of starvation (according to a Kuomintang provincial senator and American journalist Bai Xiude, 5 million died of starvation). The author experienced that famine year, when I was seven or eight years old. Witnessing the human tragedy of the poor selling their children and daughters (a neighbor family had no children, so they bought a scrawny boy), the rich took advantage of the cheap price to buy land. At that time, a shop not far from my house still had rice and noodles for sale, and there were hawkers selling cooked food along the street as usual, but there were many beggars, and it was not uncommon to die a terrible death on the street. In the years after 1959, New China relied on the collective strength of the state and people's communes to resist disasters and mitigate losses; After the incident, disaster relief was organized to try its best to reduce the degree of harm caused by the disaster. Abnormal deaths of the population in local areas are mainly "nutritional deaths". This is the concept proposed by Professor Sun Jingxian of Jiangsu Normal University in studying this issue, and whether it is appropriate can be considered and discussed. Its meaning mainly refers to the death of trophic diseases (edema disease, etc.), the death of nutritional diseases combined with other diseases, and also includes "complete starvation death" (i.e., "starvation death"). But only a fraction of the "nutritional deaths" (deaths from total starvation) are actually included in the figure. 6950249 may be more sophisticated than the concept of "unnatural death", because other accidental deaths are also "unnatural deaths". More importantly, it helps to distinguish the situation of the old Chinese drought year. Under the old social system, in the event of a drought year, although there were also official disaster relief and civil relief practices, their effect was limited, and they could not avoid the tragic fate of peasants going bankrupt due to disasters and destroying families due to disasters; Instead, the years of drought became a good opportunity for the powerful and rich to seize and annex land. It is necessary to distinguish between the different nature of the above two situations. During the three years of economic difficulties from 1959 to 1961, from the leaders of the country to the people of the whole country, except for the distinction between urban and rural areas and different types of work, basic rations were allotted according to low standards to ensure that everyone survived the famine. If this were not the case, but as in the old society, some people ate well and even continued to eat delicacies, while others would be unimaginable. IV. About the Structure of the Book: The Preface is a few notes about the book. The introduction lists the phenomenon of economic leap inherent in human society and the origin of the concept of economic take-off and Mao Zedong's concept of development. The main body is divided into five parts: the first part, the prelude to takeoff. Five chapters illustrate the historical prerequisites for takeoff, ideological and theoretical preparations, and the formation of the "Great Leap Forward" situation. The accelerated development in 1956, which was later summarized by Zhou Enlai as "leapfrog development", was actually a preview of the "Great Leap Forward" in 1958. It has accumulated positive and negative experience and is a necessary link for decision-makers to reach consensus. Without this stage of practice, it is difficult to understand the undivided leadership of the entire Party in the following three years of the Great Leap Forward. Part II, The Three Years of the Great Leap Forward. From Chapter 6 to Chapter 9, it is divided into four chapters, including Chapter 8 devoted to the "eight months of correcting the 'left'" in fact, which is the work of taking the initiative to carry out economic adjustment. Unfortunately, the success fell short, leading to more serious consequences. Part III, Unexpected Economic Crisis. The book treats three years of severe economic hardship as an economic crisis. To say that it is "accidental" is not only to have the character of chance, but also to the fact that traditional socialist concepts do not recognize its raison d'être. Chapter 10, after briefly explaining the general principles of the Marxist classics on economic crisis, Chapters 11 and 12 devote two chapters to analyzing the causes and main manifestations of the crisis. Part IV: The Struggle Against Serious Difficulties. It narrates the struggle of the party and government to lead the people of the whole country to overcome the economic crisis. The crux of the crisis, and the decisive factor influencing and determining the main course of the crisis, is the nationwide food shortage and the serious shortage of food rations for 600 million people. At that time, China was facing a comprehensive blockade by the imperialist camp headed by US imperialism, and the Khrushchov ruling clique of the Soviet Union took the opportunity to attack and fell into the ground, which made the degree of difficulty even more serious. Even without these factors, China's limited foreign exchange, the possible situation of the world grain market, for China, which has a population of hundreds of millions, the way out can only be to save itself mainly by itself. Chapter 13 is devoted to Mao Zedong's continued hands-on grasp of agriculture, thereby making breakthroughs and driving and promoting economic adjustment to liven up the overall situation. Chapter 14 describes the adjustment of the entire national economy. Chapter 15 describes the main situation of the "Congress of 7,000 People" and the Tenth Plenary Session of the Eighth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, as well as their status and role in economic adjustment. Chapters 16 to 18 describe the recovery of the national economy and the transition period that follows for three years. Chapter 19 is devoted to natural disasters and relief during this period. Part 5, Comprehensive Observation of Takeoff Experiments. This article first examines the Great Leap Forward in 1958 and the three-year Great Leap Forward from 1958 to 1960, and then observes the period from 1958 to 1965 as a whole. The "Great Leap Forward" in the first three years and the adjustment in the last five years complement each other and can be regarded as a cycle of wave-like operation of the national economy. In 1965, at the end of this cycle, on the basis of the first five-year plan, the goal of initially industrializing society in about fifteen years, that is, three five-year plans, stipulated in the general line of the transitional period, was largely achieved ahead of schedule according to the understanding and requirements of the time. Its main symbol is: It has initially established an industrial system and machinery manufacturing industrial system with a considerable technical level and scale, and has begun to have its own high-tech industry, breaking through the cutting-edge of national defense in one fell swoop, and exploding the independently developed atomic bomb. This is the road that the developed capitalist countries took forty, fifty or even hundreds of years to complete. During the same period, some of the larger developing countries have not achieved such great development achievements on the road to industrialization. The reason why economic adjustment took a long time of five years, except for the factors of rampant natural disasters, a considerable part of the time and part of the additional capital investment was used to solve the problem of filling in and filling up in the three years of great development, so it should be treated as a compensatory investment that cannot be omitted. Without a few years of catastrophe, the adjustment will not last for five years. In addition, the author also raises a question on the processing of statistical data during the "Second Five-Year Plan" period. In the actual operation of the national economy, the original "Second Five-Year Plan" period has become two different stages. Premier Zhou Enlai made this distinction in his 1964 government work report. The current statistical methods are still a complete planning period, which is difficult to reflect the original historical situation and is easy to mislead, which is necessary to attract the attention of relevant parties. Fifth, it is necessary to explain that thanks to the examination by experts from the Publication Management Department of the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television and the Party History Research Office of the CPC Central Committee, he has put forward a lot of valuable opinions. The idea of this book is an experiment. Whether this view is valid remains to be tested. Expect criticism to be corrected. The content discussed in this book does not include Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. Author: April 15, 2015, revised April 5, 2017（AI翻译）